Source: Inderes

Starbreeze will publish its Q3 report on Thursday, November 12. We anticipate a significant year-on-year top-line decline following the complete wind-down of the KRAFTON partnership, leaving the core PAYDAY franchise as the sole major revenue driver. While we expect recent rightsizing measures to cushion profitability, our primary focus will be on the company's cash runway and any tangible evidence of improved monetization in PAYDAY 3.

Engagement rebound for PAYDAY 3, but monetization remains the key unknown for the franchise

We estimate Q3 revenue at 31 MSEK (Q3'25: 58 MSEK), a 47% decrease year-on-year. Most of the decline is explained by Special Operations/other now that the KRAFTON engagement has ended, and by third-party publishing, which we expect at zero (Q3'25: 5 MSEK). The core PAYDAY franchise accounts for a smaller part of the decline, and we estimate its revenue at 29 MSEK (Q3'25: 33 MSEK).

PD3 engagement on Steam improved clearly during the quarter. Average concurrent users (CCU) rose by some 50% quarter-on-quarter, and the September peak was the highest in two years following the Anniversary update (3.9), which was preceded by the Unreal Engine 5 migration in late August. In our view, this is the first notable engagement response to the company’s content efforts. However, we treat the uplift cautiously. With all previously paid heist DLC now included in the base game, part of the revenue base has shifted from DLC sales towards base-game sales, cosmetic packs and the new paid Crimebonds, the first of which launched only in late September. The quarter was also characterized by deep seasonal discounting, and activity moderated during October. We therefore expect PD3 revenue to improve sequentially but remain low in absolute terms (Q3'26e: 13 MSEK, Q2'26: 11 MSEK), still down 26% year-on-year (Q3'25: 18 MSEK). We would also note that Steam captures only part of PD3’s player base (~158k MAU in Q2), so the console response to the update remains an open question. For PAYDAY 2 (“PD2”), we expect continued good development (Q3'26e: 16 MSEK, +6% y/y; Q2'26: 14 MSEK), supported by the strong Steam activity and the seasonally important Steam Summer Sale. PD2 would thereby again generate more revenue than PD3, at around half of group revenue.

Cost reductions take full effect, but elevated amortization keeps EBIT negative

We expect Q3 EBITDA to improve to 10.5 MSEK (Q2'26: 3.4 MSEK), as the rightsizing measures initiated in Q4'25 should now be fully reflected in the cost base. Headcount fell 20% quarter-on-quarter to 99 FTEs in Q2, with most of the savings landing after that quarter. We estimate EBIT at -22 MSEK (Q3'25 adj. EBIT: -24 MSEK), as we expect depreciation and amortization to decrease from the elevated Q2 level (~40 MSEK) to ~32 MSEK, as smaller intangible assets are now close to being fully amortized. We see some risk to these estimates. Following the UE5 launch in August, a smaller share of development costs may be capitalized going forward, which could weigh on EBITDA. We also do not model any write-downs, but the transition of heist DLC into the base game and the engine migration make the carrying value of PD3-related capitalized development a point to monitor. It's also worth noting that the comparison period’s reported EBIT included the Project Baxter impairment.

Cash runway and financing in sharp focus

Our primary focus in the Q3 report is cash development. The cash balance stood at 52 MSEK at the end of Q2, and continued own-game investment (Q2: 23 MSEK) kept free cash flow clearly negative, which we estimate leaves roughly two to three quarters of runway at the current pace. With the AGM having rejected the proposed share issue authorization in May, and no financing measures communicated since, we will look for management’s assessment of liquidity and available funding options, the status of the 2026 positive cash flow target, which we consider increasingly out of reach, and the planned level of game investment going forward.

On the franchise side, we will look for comments on the reception of the Anniversary update and its effect on revenue, including any early indicators of Crimebond monetization, as well as the planned content cadence into Q4, when we expect the launch of GTA VI (November 19) to absorb a large share of player attention. On the IP expansion strategy, the VR title PAYDAY: Aces High (Fast Travel Games) launched on November 5, and the Gamefam Roblox title is still due later this year. As before, we view these partnerships as strategically consistent and capital-light. However, given that no financial terms have been disclosed, we expect their near-term contribution to remain limited. Our Q3 estimate includes only minor licensing revenue within Special Operations/other. Overall, the engagement recovery in PD3 is the most encouraging signal from the company in a long time, but we remain cautious until it translates into sustained monetization and a clearer path to financing the business.