Starbreeze Q4'25 preview: Focus on monetization triggers as player activity stays muted

Source: Inderes

Starbreeze will publish its Q4’25 report on Thursday, February 19, 2026. We expect the report to show moderating year-on-year revenue growth due to the quarter’s limited content delivery and muted player activity. While the discontinuation of Project Baxter has streamlined the cost base, which is expected to improve profitability, we believe the investment case remains heavily dependent on the company's ability to reignite player engagement and secure new work-for-hire projects. In the report and during the webcast, we will be looking for comments on potential revenue triggers and outlook for improved monetization, as well as the progress toward achieving cash-flow positivity in 2026.

We expected revenue growth to moderate sequentially but remain at double-digits

We estimate Q4 revenue at 53 MSEK (Q4’24: 46 MSEK), representing a 13% year-on-year increase. This reflects a sequential moderation in growth (Q3’25: 37%). The slowdown is primarily due to our lower expectations for third-party publishing revenue (Inderes est: 5 MSEK vs. Q4’24: 15 MSEK) and a decreasing contribution from the KRAFTON partnership (Inderes: 14 MSEK vs. Q3’25: 21 MSEK). We expect revenue from the PAYDAY franchise to remain relatively stable quarter-on-quarter at 35 MSEK (Q3’25: 33 MSEK), as limited content delivery coupled with muted player activity in PD3 continues to hinder any meaningful uptick. Conversely, we expect PD2 revenue to remain robust at 14 MSEK (Q3’25: 15 MSEK, Q4’24: 10 MSEK) and continue to benefit from the introduction of its subscription model (launched late Q3’25).

The key event for PD3 during the quarter was the release of Skill 2.0, a revamped progression system. However, in terms of player activity, the reception was modest, with a temporary spike followed by a quick reversion in player numbers. Given that this was a critical release for strengthening retention ahead of the company’s monetization push in 2026, the limited impact on player activity is a discouraging sign in our view. While further content and quality-of-life improvements are scheduled for the coming months, we will look for management comments on potential growth triggers, as persistent player sentiment issues cast uncertainty on our revenue trajectory.

We expect profitability to improve through a leaner cost structure

Following the discontinuation of Project Baxter, Starbreeze reduced its headcount by ~44 positions. While some effects will be visible in Q4, we expect the full impact of this leaner fixed cost base to materialize from Q1’26 onwards. Combined with lower year-on-year amortization of game development, we expect EBIT to improve to -10 MSEK (Q4’24: -52 MSEK; Q3’25 Adj. EBIT: -24 MSEK). We also expect CAPEX to decline following the Baxter exit. In our view, this, alongside the acquisition of full publishing rights for PAYDAY 3, allowing the company to collect revenue faster, should support improved cash flow. The company aims to reach cash-flow positivity in 2026, an ambition we believe hinges entirely on successful PAYDAY execution and securing new work-for-hire projects.

Focus on 2026 revenue triggers, cash flow, and work-for-hire pipeline

Our primary focus in the Q4 report and during the webcast will be management’s comments on potential revenue triggers and outlook for improved monetization, as well as the progress toward achieving cash-flow positivity in 2026. With the company now operating as a studio dedicated to a single IP, execution on the PAYDAY franchise is critical to restoring investor confidence. We are looking for tangible evidence that the increased update frequency is translating into higher concurrent user (CCU) counts and improved player sentiment over time, both of which have remained low for much of the past year.

We will also be monitoring the work-for-hire pipeline as a point of interest. As the KRAFTON engagement ends, visibility on new work-for-hire projects remains limited. Securing a new partnership, or extending the existing one, with a similar scope is critical for our 2026 revenue assumptions and for maintaining high studio utilization.