Translation: Original published in Finnish on 8/5/2026 at 7:58 am EEST.

Source: Inderes & Vara Research, 3 analysts (consensus)

Suominen will publish its Q2 report on Friday, August 7, at 9 am EEST. The company's earnings webcast can be followed here at 10:30 am EEST. We expect revenue to have turned to clear growth with the recovery of volumes. However, we estimate that earnings will remain at the same level as the comparison period as rising raw material and energy costs take their toll. The company recently completed an oversubscribed share issue, easing the balance sheet situation, but we are still closely monitoring the progress of the operational turnaround. Although we expect the company to reiterate its full-year guidance, we see a clear downward risk to it.

We expect revenue to have turned to clear growth, driven by volumes

We expect Suominen's Q2 revenue to have increased to 113 MEUR (H2'25: 100 MEUR). The company already stated in connection with its Q1 report that it believes that, during Q2, it will win back half of the volumes lost due to production disruptions in the US. Additionally, the company stated that the order book is rising, possibly partly due to customers increasing their inventories ahead of future price hikes and potential availability issues. Thus, we estimate that volume development in Q2 was good compared to the previous two quarters. We also expect an increase in sales prices to support revenue as rising raw material costs are passed on to prices. Growth is further supported by the company's weak comparison figures from Q2-Q4'25.

Cost inflation weighs on profitability despite volume recovery

We forecast that Suominen's adjusted EBITDA will remain almost unchanged at 3.0 MEUR (Q2'25: 2.9 MEUR). We expect adjusted EBIT to have remained slightly unprofitable at -1.2 MEUR (Q2'25: -1.3 MEUR). We estimate that earnings are particularly weighed down by the increase in the price of oil-based raw materials and energy, which will start to be reflected in the company's costs during Q2. Although the shift to monthly pricing helps pass on increased costs to customer prices, we believe the sharp rise in costs will pose challenges to profitability in the short term. However, increased volumes help cover fixed costs more effectively, which we believe will prevent a decline in earnings. At the EBIT level, the unprofitable result is naturally still far from an acceptable level.

Focus on price increases, turnaround program, and the reliability of guidance

Suominen has provided guidance indicating that, in 2026, comparable EBITDA will improve from 2025 (12.6 MEUR). Although we expect the company to reiterate its guidance, we see a clear downward risk to it. The Q1 result lagged behind the comparison period, and we expect the Q2 result to only match the level of the comparison period. Our estimate for full-year adjusted EBITDA is 12.7 MEUR, practically the same level as the comparison period. However, we expect earnings to trend upward towards the end of the year as price increases take full effect and turnaround program measures begin to yield results.

In the report, we will pay particular attention to management's comments on how effectively costs can be passed on to sales prices. We will also consider the demand outlook, as customers' inventory replenishment in Q2 may affect demand for the remainder of the year. Additionally, we will focus on the progress of the efficiency program announced in January, which was financed by a recently completed 28 MEUR share issue. We estimate that the company's balance sheet is on a more stable footing than before due to the oversubscribed offering. While this provides peace of mind for implementing the operational turnaround, a sustainable reduction in debt levels still requires an improvement in earnings.