Translation: Original published in Finnish on 04/23/2026 at 07:40 am EEST

Source: Inderes

Taaleri publishes its Q1 results on Wednesday, April 29, 20206, at 08:00 am EET. We estimate the quarter to be weak in terms of figures due to the write-down of the Joensuu bioplant and the weakness of Garantia's investment income. In the report, particular attention will be paid to the growth of Garantia's premium income and the company's swift strategy execution. Comments regarding balance sheet recycling are also of interest, as it is a key short-term driver in unwinding the share's undervaluation.

Earnings will remain subdued due to write-downs and market volatility

We have made some small revisions to our estimates ahead of the earnings. We have added the write-down of the Joensuu bioplant and decreased the return on Garantia's investment portfolio to reflect market developments in Q1. For Q1, the estimate cuts are significant, but for 2026, they are minor. Taaleri's revenue generally gives a rather poor picture of the development of the company, as most of the quarterly fluctuating investment income is also reflected in revenue. We recommend focusing on the development of the individual segments. At the Group level, we expect Taaleri to report revenue of 11.4 MEUR (Q1'25: 9.3 MEUR). We forecast recurring fees to increase by over 10% due to the growth of Renewable Energy. We believe no significant one-off income occurred during the review period, and revenue consists of recurring fees, with the exception of Garantia's small investment income.

Garantia will again deliver an excellent underwriting result in Q1, accounting for the majority of the 2.8 MEUR EBIT we estimate for Taaleri. Profitability is weighed down by the write-down of the Joensuu bioplant investment (-0.9 MEUR) and the absence of non-recurring fees. Garantia's investment income (Q1'26:  0.8 MEUR at fair value) will also be lower than usual due to market turmoil.

Garantia continues to perform excellently

The development of Garantia's insurance premium revenue is one of the most important aspects of the report. Although the market situation has remained subdued, we believe Garantia continued its accelerated growth in H2 due to its own actions. We remind you that Garantia's growth is one of Taaleri's key value drivers. With excellent technical insurance performance, we expect the insurance service result to be 3.4 MEUR.

We forecast Renewable Energy to continue its growth (+10%) and achieve strong profitability (EBIT 34%). In other private equity funds, revenue will decrease as small write-downs from Joensuu bioplant's management fees weigh on the figures. The segment's EBIT will remain clearly in the red due to the ramp-up phase.

Strategy execution and capital recycling on the balance sheet in focus

In our view, Taaleri has clearly shifted into a new gear in its strategy, and strategy implementation continued at a rapid pace during the review period. Recent expansions into the Venture Capital and Private Credit markets are concrete examples of this. We find expanding the product offering to be a critical factor for the long-term growth of Other private equity funds and for the segment's profitability turnaround. We do not expect the company to change its outlook in connection with the Q1 report.

For the investor story and the unlocking of the share's undervaluation, the recycling of balance sheet capital is a key theme. In the report, we will closely monitor management's comments on key divestments, such as old wind funds, the Texas project, Toriparkki, and Fintoil. Successful exits and the reallocation of capital released from them are the most important drivers for narrowing the stock's steep markdown relative to the sum of the parts. We expect the already recognized performance fees from old wind funds to remain unchanged, as the outlook for the electricity market in Finland has improved slightly.