Taaleri Q2'25 preview: Waiting for the strategy update

Translation: Original published in Finnish on 08/11/2025 at 07:25 am EEST

Taaleri publishes its Q2 results on Wednesday at 08.00 am EEST. The quarterly news stream has been slow as the company’s focus has, as expected, been on strategy work (CMD September 2). Contrary to our expectations, SolarWind3 has not announced its closing, and the fundraising progress is one of the most important things in the report. Regarding the strategy update, new information will likely have to wait until the CMD. The earnings call can be viewed at InderesTV starting at 07:50 am EEST.

Source: Inderes

Technical changes to estimates ahead of the Q2 report

Ahead of the results, we have shifted the final closing of the SolarWind3 fund from Q2 to Q3. We have also moved the sales of old wind funds, which we had previously forecast for Q2, to later in the year. We have revised our return estimates for Garantia's investment portfolio upwards due to the well-performing capital market. Quarterly changes are significant, but on an annual basis, the forecast increase for 2025 is only about 5%. Taaleri’s revenue is usually a rather poor indicator of the development of the group’s business operations, as most of the investment income that fluctuates by quarter is also reflected in revenue. We recommend focusing on the development of the individual segments. At group level, we expect Taaleri's revenue to be 13.4 MEUR. Recurring fees are roughly at the level of the comparison period. Due to the good return on Garantia's investment portfolio, the group's EBIT is a reasonable 4.9 MEUR. We believe no significant one-off income occurred during the review period.

SolarWind3 fund's fundraising under the magnifying glass

Revenue from private equity funds remains broadly in line with the comparison period at 6.9 MEUR. Contrary to our expectations, the company did not finalize the closing of the SolarWind3 fund at the end of June. Fundraising has likely been extended because some potential investors still have their decision-making process ongoing. Due to the challenging fundraising market, we see a risk that the fund's final size will fall short of our previous estimate. The exit from old wind funds did not take place in Q2 either, but there is no drama involved.

With the reporting change that came into effect at the beginning of the year, the profitability of the Private equity funds segment has clearly increased (group overheads are fully visible in the Other segment), and the segment is generating a reasonable result (Q2’25e: 1.0 MEUR). Other private equity funds are still in the red, but Renewable Energy is already nicely profitable. 

Garantia continues to perform excellently

We expect Garantia's premium income to decrease slightly year-on-year, as will the guarantee portfolio. However, the guarantee portfolio will increase from the Q1 level due to the group bond issue completed in April. We expect claims costs to remain moderate and, therefore, the company should once again report a good insurance service result (3.0 MEUR). Investment income has been at a good level, and Garantia will generate excellent earnings (5.6 MEUR).

The strategy update is still almost a month away

Taaleri has provided quite precise segment-specific outlooks for the current year, and we do not expect any changes to them in the Q2 report. Taaleri is currently undergoing strategy work, which will be published at the CMD on September 2. We feel the current strategy has not succeeded in unlocking the significant value in the company's parts, and the strategy update should aim to unlock the value of the parts in one way or another. A key question in the strategy is the significant biotech investments on its own balance sheet, the volume of which has clearly fallen short of previous plans, and whose market prospects have also generally weakened. Obviously, we will not get specific plans for the strategy update in the context of the results, but any comments in this regard will naturally be of interest. We discussed the company's strategic options in our previous report.