Automatic translation: Originally published in Danish 30/10/2026, 07:15 GMT. Give feedback here.

Trifork published its Q3 2026 financial report this morning alongside an adjustment to its 2026 guidance. The quarter significantly beat expectations, though part of this was driven by the timing of hardware sales.

Revenue for the quarter landed at EUR 61.0m (consensus: EUR 56.1m) and adj. EBITDA at EUR 10.4m (consensus: EUR 9.0m). This yields an adj. EBITDA margin of 17.0% vs. 15.0% in Q3 2025 (consensus: 16.0%).

Revenue was thus ~9% above consensus and earnings ~15% above. Organic growth reached 27.8% vs. 16.6% expected, but excluding hardware, it was 6.4%.

In connection with the report, Trifork adjusted its 2026 guidance. Revenue is now expected to land between EUR 235m and 240m vs. previously EUR 230–240m, organic growth at 9–11% vs. previously 7–11%, and adj. EBITDA at EUR 35–37m vs. previously EUR 35–40m.

This should be viewed against consensus expectations of EUR 235.9m in revenue and EUR 36.0m in adj. EBITDA. The revenue consensus thus sits at the very bottom of the new range, whereas the earnings consensus hits the exact midpoint. This may indicate that the significantly better quarterly result can be attributed to some extent to the timing of hardware sales.

The most interesting aspect in relation to our investment case remains Products. The segment generated sales of EUR 27.7m (consensus: EUR 20.6m), corresponding to 96.4% organic growth and 25.4% adj. for hardware. The difference lies in hardware sales, which jumped from EUR 1.0m to EUR 11.2m as subsidiary Netic onboarded large, new, and long-term hosting and operations agreements within sovereign data.

The underlying item licenses, hosting, and support grew from EUR 13.9m to EUR 15.5m, corresponding to 11.5%. Adj. EBITDA came in at EUR 6.3m vs. a consensus of EUR 5.6m, while the margin fell to 22.7% from 26.7% in Q3 2025 and vs. an implicit consensus margin of 27.3%. However, the margin decline is a direct consequence of the hardware mix, and management itself describes the margin contribution from these transactions as satisfactory compared to the previous hardware business.

Products now account for 45.4% of group revenue vs. 37% in Q2, and over the past twelve months, the segment has delivered more than half of the group's EBITDA vs. around a third a year ago.

In our view, hardware sales are the quarter's most important signal for the longer term. Management describes hardware as a leading indicator for recurring license revenue, which typically starts around six months after the equipment is installed, thereby pointing to continued strong license-driven growth in Products in 2027. The data center and operations business in Denmark is expected to account for around a quarter of group revenue on a full-year basis and has more than doubled both revenue and earnings in two years. The new Infrastructure-as-a-Service platform Contain targets customers migrating away from hyperscalers.

The downside is that hardware makes the quarterly figures volatile and revenue quality harder to read in any given quarter.

The public sector is the second major driver. Public revenue rose 58.4% to EUR 34.2m and now accounts for 56.1% of group revenue vs. 43.8% in Q3 2025 and 49.6% in Q2, while private revenue fell 3.3% to EUR 26.8m.

Services generated sales of EUR 33.3m (consensus: EUR 35.5m), corresponding to an organic decline of 0.9%, but delivered an adj. EBITDA of EUR 5.5m vs. a consensus of EUR 5.4m and a margin of 16.4% vs. 13.8% in Q3 2025 and an implicit consensus margin of 15.3%. This marks a reversal compared to Q2, where AI investments in Services pressured the margin 2.9 percentage points below expectations, and earnings are now delivered despite flat sales.

On the Labs side, the partial divestment to Verdane was completed on September 22 at a total price of EUR 22.8m, of which EUR 16.0m was received in cash at closing, while a deferred payment of EUR 6.8m is recognized at a fair value of EUR 5.5m and an earn-out at EUR 1.3m.

On October 28, the extraordinary general meeting approved a dividend of DKK 3.00 per share, corresponding to ~EUR 7.7m, to be paid out on November 2. In addition, share buybacks amounted to EUR 4.6m during the quarter out of the EUR 10.0m program.

Today at 12:30 PM, management will present the Q3 2026 results, provide an update on developments during the quarter, and answer questions from participants.

You can sign up here:

https://www.inderes.dk/videos/trifork-praesentation-af-q3-2026-samt-qanda

Disclaimer: HC Andersen Capital receives payment from Trifork for a Corporate Visibility/Digital IR subscription agreement. Michael Friis 08:15, August 17, 2026.