Volatile start to week 28 for Nordic shipping

Shipping has been in focus this week, driven by tariffs, geopolitics, and OPEC+. On Saturday, OPEC+ raised the cartel’s production caps by a further 548,000 barrels per day (b/d), restoring around 1.9 million b/d of the 2.2 million b/d cuts made in 2023, and giving a lift to tanker and product tanker companies. 

Conflict in the Middle East impacted shipping across sectors as the Iran-backed Houthi group attacked a dry bulk vessel in the Red Sea, their first attack on a commercial vessel of 2025. The attack triggered Israel to respond with missile strikes on three ports in Yemen linked to Houthi activities. After more than six months without direct aggression towards commercial ships, forecasts for a wider reopening of the Red Sea to commercial shipping were rising. However, following this attack, it is likely most commercial shipping will continue navigating around the Cape of Good Hope, or find routes to avoid the Red Sea for the foreseeable future. The news drove an increase in the shares of container owners such as Maersk, as well as dry bulk carriers including NORDEN, and tanker and product tanker companies such as Frontline, Hafnia, and TORM. 

Tariffs stole the headlines yesterday with US President Trump distributing more letters with proposed tariff rates, which will be effective from 01 August unless individual deals can be made beforehand (or they are postponed again). Yesterday’s letter’s included a proposed 50% tariff on Brazil, taking markets by surprize, especially since Brazil is a top 20 trading partner and not included in the original liberation day list. Bloomberg reporting suggests that the letters indicate an average global tariff rate slightly below the levels stated on April 4 on “Liberation Day”, however, it would represent an average increase to almost 20%, up from the roughly 10% level currently. Markets started the week unresponsive to the news, adjusting to TACO (Trump Always Chickens Out). However, the potential implication to trade dragged on containers, dry bulk, tanker, and product tanker share prices. 
Following the close on Wednesday, 09 July 2025, most shipping sectors have reversed their initial gains on the week, tariffs have returned as the near-term driving factor in shipping markets.
 


Note: Price returns reflect closing prices from 06/07/2025 to 09/07/2025, * represents companies with an active DigitalIR agreement with HCA Capital.

Disclaimer: HC Andersen Capital has a DigitalIR agreement with Hafnia, TORM, and NORDEN. This is not a recommendation to buy shares, sell shares, or not to buy/sell shares. / Philip Coombes 08:16 10/07/2025