Analyst Comment

WindowMaster: EBITDA guidance upgrade FY2025

By Philip CoombesEquity Research Analyst

Summary

WindowMaster has upgraded its 2025 EBITDA guidance to DKK 26.5-27.5m, reflecting strong December performance and improved margins due to favorable product mix and cost control.
The 2025 EBITDA margin is now expected to be around 10%, with non-recurring costs of DKK 3.5-4.0m impacting results, but underlying margins are closer to 11.3-11.5%.
Management maintains its 2026 outlook with revenue projected at DKK 290-310m and EBITDA at DKK 45-55m, indicating significant profitability growth supported by a strong orderbook and stable costs.
Execution risk is linked to the conversion of regulatory-driven demand into orders, particularly in Germany, while the 2025 exit margin strengthens the base for 2026 margin expansion.

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WindowMaster has upgraded its 2025 EBITDA guidance to DKK 26.5-27.5m (from DKK 23-26m previously and DKK 37.3m in 2024), driven by strong December performance across all markets. Revenue is revised to the lower end of guidance at DKK 269-270m (from DKK 268-275m previously), suggesting margin improvements stem not only from operating leverage but also a favourable product mix and tight cost control. The implicit 2025E EBITDA margin has risen to around 10% (from 8.3-9.7% previously). Notably, 2025 results were burdened by non-recurring costs of DKK 3.5-4.0m that will not repeat.

Management maintained its 2026 outlook for revenue of DKK 290-310m (7.5-15% growth y/y) and EBITDA of DKK 45-55m (14.5-19% margin), representing close to a doubling of profitability year-on-year and underscoring the company's strong operational gearing. The guidance is supported by a strengthening orderbook through 2025 and stable cost expectations, while a new German order for Climatic façade access solutions highlights ongoing commercial traction. Execution risk remains tied to the pace at which regulatory-driven demand, particularly in Germany, converts into firm orders.

The higher 2025 exit margin provides a stronger base heading into 2026, making the guided margin expansion look more achievable than previously implied. Adjusting for one-off costs, the underlying 2025 EBITDA margin is closer to 11.3-11.5%, reducing the gap to the 2026 target range by approximately 1.3-1.5 percentage points.

With 2026 guidance unchanged and operating leverage remaining the primary earnings driver for the year ahead, we will not update our current one-pager at this time.

Disclaimer: HC Andersen Capital receives payment from WindowMaster for a DigitalIR/Corporate Visibility subscription agreement. / Philip Coombes 15:10

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WindowMaster was founded in Denmark in 1990 with the ambition of becoming a strong market leader in the fenestration industry. In 2015, CEO Erik Boyter led a management buy-in and listed the company on the Nasdaq First North Growth Market in Copenhagen in 2020. It has been a family-controlled, listed company since then. WindowMaster offers advanced ventilation strategies, enabling the construction industry to significantly reduce its carbon footprint. Driven by the purpose ‘To create a better world where every person has fresh air indoors and a safe built environment’, the company develops, manufactures, distributes facade and roof automation solutions for hybrid ventilation, natural ventilation, and smoke ventilation systems. WindowMaster’s actuators and control systems enable the flow of fresh air, while actuators ensure window automation. The company also provides project design assistance, ventilation calculation, installation, commissioning, integration opportunities and system training. The company benefits from strong structural tailwinds in the European building industry for both renovation and newbuild. Both applications are supported by increasing regulatory focus on energy efficiency and a more sustainable construction industry. Buildings account for roughly 40% of global energy consumption, with more than two-thirds related to heating, ventilation, air conditioning, and lighting — making WindowMaster’s solutions a high-impact lever for energy reduction. Over the past four years (2020–2024), WindowMaster has delivered profitable growth with a 12% revenue CAGR, while improving both EBITDA and cash flow. The company’s performance has shown greater resilience than the broader building materials sector, underpinned by its exposure to the more stable renovation segment, the highly regulated smoke control market, and growing investments in the green transition. A disciplined capital allocation strategy has created substantial value through investments in innovation, own production capacity, and the global sales organisation. These initiatives have cemented WindowMaster’s strong market position across core markets in Europe and North America. With a robust platform for both organic and inorganic growth, WindowMaster is well positioned to create long-term shareholder value. In 2025, the company paid its first dividend since the IPO, reflecting its healthy financial foundation and commitment to shareholder value.