US oil barrels are now true black gold
Summary
- The war in Iran has led to a significant disruption in global oil supply, with over 10% of production affected, resulting in higher consumer prices worldwide.
- Efforts to mitigate the supply gap include the release of emergency reserves by the International Energy Agency, but these reserves are limited and may only last for about 180 days.
- US oil exports have surged to record levels, positioning the country as nearly a net exporter of crude oil for the first time since 2001, with increased shipments to Asia and Europe.
- The US energy sector is benefiting from the current geopolitical situation, with Europe and Asia increasingly reliant on American energy supplies amid Middle Eastern disruptions.
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Automatic translation: Originally published in Finnish 27/08/2026, 04:44 GMT. Give feedback here.
Six months have passed since the start of the war in Iran, and more than 10% of the world's oil production is out of play. Production problems have been visible to the ordinary consumer, especially at the gas pump almost everywhere. Some minor help for the supply gap has been provided by the IEA's emergency reserves.
As the war in Iran drags on, a key question is whether global oil reserves are sufficient to fill the resulting supply gap. According to the world's largest oil company, Aramco, the world has lost 2.6 billion barrels of oil since the start of the war, which corresponds to around 25 days of global consumption. Cumulatively, this is beginning to be the largest supply disruption in history. However, according to most analysts, the daily supply deficit is more moderate, at around 5 million barrels, as Chinese demand has slowed down at the same time.
Source: Reuters
Efforts to compensate for the reduced supply have been made using emergency reserves from the International Energy Agency (IEA). They total approximately 1.8 billion barrels and would theoretically be sufficient to cover the current deficit for about 300 days. In reality, however, the buffer is significantly smaller: three-quarters of the 400 million barrel "release program" announced in March have already been released, and because the IEA cannot order commercial inventories to be released, practically only about 0.9 billion barrels of state-held reserves remain. According to Reuters, this would last for around 180 days, which means not indefinitely.
I already mentioned in the spring how, as total production falters, US oil exports have risen to new highs. President Trump has hailed this export trend as a victory for US "energy dominance." The country is close to a historical turning point: for the first time since 2001, the US is nearly a net exporter of crude oil in weekly statistics. In the case of gas, this milestone was reached much earlier. The volume has trebled compared to the pre-war period, and shipments from the US are now heading to Asia, among other regions. For example, Japan, which has received nearly 95% of its oil from the Middle East, is now seeking closer relations with US suppliers. Indeed, US exports to Asia grew by around 30% year-on-year already in the spring.
In addition to Asia, Europe is now increasingly dependent on American energy. The EU already gets around 60% of its LNG from the United States, and the Trump administration has used energy supplies as a negotiating tool in trade talks. In the short term, there are indeed few alternatives. Europe must fill its natural gas storage facilities before winter, and Asia needs US supplies to make up for Middle Eastern supply. In light of the figures, it is clear that the US energy sector benefits from the bottlenecks in the Strait of Hormuz, making the war also a matter of energy policy in this sense.
