Koskisen

We cut our estimates, especially for the current year, in the wake of the profit warning issued by the company before the earnings release.

Revenue exceeded the 100 MEUR mark, but profitability disappointed in both businesses.

Management lowered the margin guidance below last year's 8% level. Koskisen's Q1 performance was also clearly below expectations.

We estimate the company's Q1 adjusted EBITDA to have decreased by some 7%, pressured by challenges in the construction sector and elevated costs.

Koskinen is transitioning from a period of very active investment in recent years towards a slightly more subdued phase of profitable growth.

The market for the Panel Industry appears to have started off fairly well this year, but comments regarding the Sawn Timber Industry were cautious. The war in Iran increases the risks at the end of the year.

We reiterate our EUR 9.00 target price and Reduce recommendation for Koskisen. We lowered our near-term estimates for Koskisen slightly, as the guidance for the current year was a bit more cautious than we expected. We see clear earnings growth potential for Koskisen in the coming years, as the construction cycle gradually recovers and the company's substantial investments over the past years reach fruition. However, we believe this has already been adequately priced into the share (2026e: P/E 12x), which is why the expected return on the share will not exceed the required return for the time being.