companyName

extensiveId

feedTypes

includeDividend

includeEstimates

includeOverview

includeOwnership

snapshotDate

CompanyName_Query

companySlug

CompanyMetaData

CompanyContent_query

company

query CompanyName_Query(
  $companyName: String!
  $extensiveId: ID
  $snapshotDate: String
  $feedTypes: [ContentType!]!
  $includeEstimates: Boolean!
  $includeOverview: Boolean!
  $includeOwnership: Boolean!
  $includeDividend: Boolean!
) {
  ...CompanyMetaData_Ux1x9
  ...CompanyContent_query_3mc3wd
}

fragment AnalystData on Analyst {
  name
  pageUrl
  jobTitle
  imgUrl
}

fragment AuthorList on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  id
  authors {
    __typename
    id
    name
    pageUrl
  }
}

fragment ChangePercentBlock_Company on Company {
  defaultInstrument {
    isin
    symbol
    priceData {
      diff1mPercentage
      diff1yPercentage
      diff3yPercentage
      diffFromStartPercentage
    }
    id
  }
}

fragment CompactFeed_3NXCcw on Query {
  compactFeed: feedContent(companySlug: $companyName, filter: {types: $feedTypes}) {
    edges {
      node {
        __typename
        id
        ...TeaserExtraCompact_content
        createdAt
        companies {
          viewerIsFollowing
          id
        }
      }
      cursor
    }
    pageInfo {
      endCursor
      hasNextPage
    }
  }
}

fragment CompanyAnalystQuery on Company {
  analysts {
    ...AnalystData
    name
    pageUrl
    jobTitle
    imgUrl
    id
  }
}

fragment CompanyContent_query_3mc3wd on Query {
  ...CompanyHeader_query_Ux1x9
  ...CompanyOwnership_query_Ux1x9 @include(if: $includeOwnership)
  ...CompanyFinancials_query_Ux1x9 @include(if: $includeEstimates)
  ...CompanyDividend_query_Ux1x9 @include(if: $includeDividend)
  ...CompanyInvestorConsensus_query_Ux1x9
  ...CompanyPageTop_query_Ux1x9 @include(if: $includeOverview)
  ...CompanyPageBottom_query_2bVJwf @include(if: $includeOverview)
  ...CompanyDisclaimer_query_Ux1x9
  ...Extensive_query_3u4Ry5
}

fragment CompanyCoverage_Company on Company {
  analysts {
    name
    id
  }
  isPayingCustomerOf
  isFormerCustomerOf
  isCorporateCustomer
  ...CompanyAnalystQuery
  defaultInstrument {
    ...TargetAndRecommendation_Company
    id
  }
}

fragment CompanyDescription_Company on Company {
  description
  websiteUrl
  name
}

fragment CompanyDisclaimer_query_Ux1x9 on Query {
  company(companySlug: $companyName) {
    name
    isPayingCustomerOf
    isFormerCustomerOf
    id
  }
}

fragment CompanyDividendER_query on Company {
  name
  defaultInstrument {
    estimateData {
      reportingCurrency
    }
    dividendTransactions: estimateTransactions(first: 1, includeQuarters: false) {
      actualized {
        year
        dividend
        dividendYield
        payoutPercentage
        sharePrice
      }
      estimates {
        year
        dividend
        dividendYield
        payoutPercentage
        sharePrice
      }
    }
    id
  }
}

fragment CompanyDividendNonER_query on Company {
  name
  defaultInstrument {
    nonERDividendSet: nonERCompanyNumberSet(includeQuarters: false) {
      year
      dividend
      dividendYield
      epsReported
      sharePrice
      currency
    }
    id
  }
}

fragment CompanyDividend_query_Ux1x9 on Query {
  company(companySlug: $companyName) {
    ...CompanyDividendER_query
    ...CompanyDividendNonER_query
    defaultInstrument {
      coreId
      id
    }
    id
  }
}

fragment CompanyFinancials_query_Ux1x9 on Query {
  company(companySlug: $companyName) {
    ...NonERCompanyNumbers_query
    ...CompanyNumbers_query
    defaultInstrument {
      coreId
      id
    }
    id
  }
}

fragment CompanyHeader_query_Ux1x9 on Query {
  company(companySlug: $companyName) {
    id
    companyInsref
    name
    viewerIsFollowing
    followersCount
    isCorporateCustomer
    hasPinpointData
    hasDividendHistory
    sector {
      sectorname
      industry
    }
    regions
    extensiveExists
    defaultInstrument {
      symbol
      priceData {
        tradeCurrency
        lastPrice
        diff1dPercentage
      }
      marketplace {
        name
      }
      estimates: estimateTransactions(first: 1, includeQuarters: false) {
        date
      }
      nonERCompanyNumberSet(first: 1, includeQuarters: false) {
        year
      }
      id
    }
    topOwners {
      holders {
        name
      }
    }
    transactions: insiderTransactions(filter: {types: [BUY, SELL, SUBSCRIPTION]}) {
      edges {
        node {
          date
          id
        }
      }
    }
  }
}

fragment CompanyInsiderTransactions on Company {
  name
  regions
  insiderTransactions(filter: {types: [BUY, EXERCISE_OF_SHARE_OPTION, PLEDGE, RECEPTION_OF_SHARE_PREMIUM, SELL, SUBSCRIPTION]}) {
    edges {
      node {
        insider
        position
        volume
        price
        date
        unit
        type
        relatedParty
        id
      }
    }
  }
}

fragment CompanyInvestorConsensus_query_Ux1x9 on Query {
  company(companySlug: $companyName) {
    name
    companyInsref
    id
  }
}

fragment CompanyMetaData_Ux1x9 on Query {
  company(companySlug: $companyName) {
    name
    description
    pageUrl
    defaultInstrument {
      estimateData {
        modelType
      }
      id
    }
    id
  }
}

fragment CompanyName_Slug on Company {
  slug
}

fragment CompanyNumbers_query on Company {
  name
  defaultInstrument {
    estimateData {
      modelType
      reportingCurrency
    }
    estimateTransactions(first: 1, includeQuarters: true) {
      comparisonIndexName
      actualized {
        year
        quarter
        revenue
        revenueGrowth
        ebitda
        ebitAdjusted
        ebitReported
        preTaxProfit
        netEarnings
        epsReported
        epsAdjusted
        dividend
        payoutPercentage
        roePercent
        roiPercent
        enterpriseValue
        bookValue
        marketCap
        gearingPercent
        equityRatio
        dividendYield
        totalCosts
        loanLosses
        balanceSheetTotal
        tangibleBook
        cet1
        rwa
        sharePrice
        sharesTotal
        nav
        navPerShare
        opexOfNav
        totalShareholderReturn
        comparisonIndexReturn
        netDebtTotalAsset
        quarterlySharePrice
      }
      estimates {
        year
        quarter
        revenue
        revenueGrowth
        ebitda
        ebitAdjusted
        ebitReported
        preTaxProfit
        netEarnings
        epsReported
        epsAdjusted
        dividend
        payoutPercentage
        roePercent
        roiPercent
        enterpriseValue
        bookValue
        marketCap
        gearingPercent
        equityRatio
        dividendYield
        totalCosts
        loanLosses
        balanceSheetTotal
        tangibleBook
        cet1
        rwa
        sharePrice
        sharesTotal
        nav
        navPerShare
        opexOfNav
        totalShareholderReturn
        comparisonIndexReturn
        netDebtTotalAsset
        quarterlySharePrice
      }
    }
    id
  }
}

fragment CompanyOverviewGraphs_query_Ux1x9 on Query {
  company(companySlug: $companyName) {
    defaultInstrument {
      estimateData {
        modelType
        reportingCurrency
      }
      companyTransactions: estimateTransactions(first: 1, includeQuarters: false) {
        actualized {
          year
          revenue
          ebitAdjusted
          epsAdjusted
          dividendYield
          navPerShare
          totalShareholderReturn
        }
        estimates {
          year
          revenue
          ebitAdjusted
          epsAdjusted
          dividendYield
          navPerShare
          totalShareholderReturn
        }
      }
      id
    }
    id
  }
}

fragment CompanyOwners on Company {
  regions
  topOwners {
    recordDate
    compareDate
    source
    holders {
      name
      capitalPercent
      votingPowerPercent
      positionChange
      totalSharesChange
      shareChange
      isNew
      isRemoved
    }
  }
}

fragment CompanyOwnership_query_Ux1x9 on Query {
  company(companySlug: $companyName) {
    name
    ...CompanyOwners
    ...CompanyInsiderTransactions
    id
  }
}

fragment CompanyPageBottom_query_2bVJwf on Query {
  ...GeneralFeed_data_3NXCcw
  ...CompactFeed_3NXCcw
  ...UpcomingEventsQuery_Ux1x9
  ...RiskRecommendMatrix_query_Ux1x9
  ...CompanyOverviewGraphs_query_Ux1x9
  ...NonERCompanyOverviewGraphs_query_Ux1x9
  company(companySlug: $companyName) {
    companyInsref
    ...ForumUpdates_Company
    defaultInstrument {
      coreId
      id
    }
    id
  }
  allFeed: feedContent(first: 1, companySlug: $companyName, filter: {hideUpcomingVideos: true}) {
    edges {
      node {
        __typename
        id
      }
    }
  }
  main: feedContent(first: 1, companySlug: $companyName, filter: {hideUpcomingVideos: true, types: [COMPANY_REPORT, EXTENSIVE_COMPANY_REPORT, ANALYST_COMMENT, VIDEO, ARTICLE]}) {
    edges {
      node {
        __typename
        id
      }
    }
  }
  webcasts: feedContent(first: 1, companySlug: $companyName, filter: {hideUpcomingVideos: true, types: [WEBCAST]}) {
    edges {
      node {
        __typename
        id
      }
    }
  }
  thirdPartyResearch: feedContent(first: 1, companySlug: $companyName, filter: {types: [THIRD_PARTY_COMPANY_REPORT]}) {
    edges {
      node {
        __typename
        id
      }
    }
  }
  releases: feedContent(first: 1, companySlug: $companyName, filter: {types: [STOCK_EXCHANGE_RELEASE, PRESS_RELEASE]}) {
    edges {
      node {
        __typename
        id
      }
    }
  }
}

fragment CompanyPageTop_query_Ux1x9 on Query {
  ...StockChart_ChartQuery_Ux1x9
  ...LatestReports_query_Ux1x9
  company(companySlug: $companyName) {
    isFund
    name
    ...CompanyCoverage_Company
    ...CompanyName_Slug
    ...CompanyDescription_Company
    ...FundNumbers_Company
    ...ChangePercentBlock_Company
    ...KeyEstimateFigures_Company
    ...InvestmentCompanyKeyFigures_Company
    defaultInstrument {
      id
      estimateData {
        modelType
      }
    }
    analysts {
      name
      id
    }
    id
  }
  extensiveReport: feedContent(first: 1, companySlug: $companyName, filter: {types: [EXTENSIVE_COMPANY_REPORT]}) {
    edges {
      node {
        __typename
        id
      }
    }
  }
  analysis: feedContent(first: 1, companySlug: $companyName, filter: {types: [COMPANY_REPORT, EXTENSIVE_COMPANY_REPORT], tagNames_nin: ["Mallisalkku", "Arvonluojat"]}) {
    edges {
      node {
        __typename
        id
      }
    }
  }
  analysisArvonluojat: feedContent(first: 1, companySlug: $companyName, filter: {types: [COMPANY_REPORT, EXTENSIVE_COMPANY_REPORT], tagNames_nin: ["Mallisalkku"]}) {
    edges {
      node {
        __typename
        id
      }
    }
  }
}

fragment CompanyTagList on Company {
  pageUrl
  name
  viewerIsFollowing
}

fragment Extensive_query_3u4Ry5 on Query {
  company(companySlug: $companyName) {
    extensive(extensiveId: $extensiveId, snapshotDate: $snapshotDate) {
      publishedAt
      pageUrl
      content {
        id
        title
        lang
        slug
        htmlBody
        publishedAt
        createdAt
        changedAt
        isOutdated
      }
    }
    id
  }
}

fragment ForumUpdates_Company on Company {
  name
  forum {
    threadUrl
    highlightedPosts {
      url
      author
      authorImgUrl
      text
      postedAt
      likesCount
    }
  }
}

fragment FundNumbers_Company on Company {
  defaultInstrument {
    isin
    symbol
    priceData {
      lastPrice
      ath
    }
    id
  }
}

fragment GeneralFeed_data_3NXCcw on Query {
  generalFeed: feedContent(first: 20, companySlug: $companyName, filter: {types: $feedTypes}) {
    edges {
      node {
        __typename
        id
        ...Teaser_content
        ...TeaserCompact_content
      }
      cursor
    }
    pageInfo {
      endCursor
      hasNextPage
    }
  }
}

fragment InvestmentCompanyKeyFigures_Company on Company {
  marketData {
    marketCap
  }
  defaultInstrument {
    priceData {
      tradeCurrency
      dailyTurnover
    }
    estimateData {
      modelType
    }
    estimateTransactions(first: 1, includeQuarters: true) {
      actualized {
        year
        quarter
        sharesTotal
        marketCap
        nav
        navPerShare
        dividendYield
        quarterlySharePrice
      }
      estimates {
        year
        quarter
        dividendYield
      }
    }
    id
  }
}

fragment KeyEstimateFigures_Company on Company {
  marketData {
    marketCap
  }
  defaultInstrument {
    priceData {
      tradeCurrency
      dailyTurnover
      lastPrice
      marketCap
    }
    sector
    fundamentalData {
      ebit
      eps
      sales
      dividend
    }
    estimateData {
      modelType
      estimates {
        firstEstimateYear {
          year
          bookValue
          netSales
          dividendA
          epsAdjusted
          ebitAdjusted
          hybridLoan
          noOfShares
          netDebt
          mvMinorities
          mvAssociated
          roePercent
        }
      }
    }
    estimatesSharePrice: estimateTransactions(first: 1) {
      estimates {
        sharePrice
      }
    }
    id
  }
}

fragment LatestReports_query_Ux1x9 on Query {
  extensiveReport: feedContent(first: 1, companySlug: $companyName, filter: {types: [EXTENSIVE_COMPANY_REPORT]}) {
    edges {
      node {
        __typename
        createdAt
        pageUrl
        id
      }
    }
  }
  analysis: feedContent(first: 1, companySlug: $companyName, filter: {types: [COMPANY_REPORT, EXTENSIVE_COMPANY_REPORT], tagNames_nin: ["Mallisalkku", "Arvonluojat"]}) {
    edges {
      node {
        __typename
        createdAt
        pageUrl
        id
      }
    }
  }
  analysisArvonluojat: feedContent(first: 1, companySlug: $companyName, filter: {types: [COMPANY_REPORT, EXTENSIVE_COMPANY_REPORT], tagNames_nin: ["Mallisalkku"]}) {
    edges {
      node {
        __typename
        createdAt
        pageUrl
        id
      }
    }
  }
}

fragment NonERCompanyNumbers_query on Company {
  name
  defaultInstrument {
    nonERNumberSet: nonERCompanyNumberSet(includeQuarters: true) {
      year
      quarter
      revenue
      ebitda
      ebitReported
      epsReported
      dividend
      sharesTotal
      roe
      roi
      enterpriseValue
      marketCap
      gearingRatio
      equityRatio
      dividendYield
      sharePrice
      currency
      evSales
      evEbitda
      evEbit
      pb
      netIncome
      ptp
    }
    id
  }
}

fragment NonERCompanyOverviewGraphs_query_Ux1x9 on Query {
  company(companySlug: $companyName) {
    defaultInstrument {
      overviewGraphsData: nonERCompanyNumberSet(includeQuarters: false) {
        year
        revenue
        ebitReported
        epsReported
        dividend
        dividendYield
        currency
      }
      id
    }
    id
  }
}

fragment Reactions on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  id
  reactionGroups {
    reactionType
    reactionsCount
    viewerReacted
  }
}

fragment RiskRecommendMatrix_query_Ux1x9 on Query {
  company(companySlug: $companyName) {
    defaultInstrument {
      riskData: estimateTransactions(first: 1) {
        businessRisk
        valuationRisk
      }
      id
    }
    id
  }
}

fragment StockChart_ChartQuery_Ux1x9 on Query {
  company(companySlug: $companyName) {
    isFund
    defaultInstrument {
      coreId
      id
      marketOpen
      marketClose
      marketplace {
        region
      }
      priceData {
        lastPrice
      }
      returns {
        day
        week
        month
        threeMonths
        sixMonths
        year
        threeYears
        fiveYears
        tenYears
        ytd
        total
      }
    }
    id
  }
}

fragment TargetAndRecommendation_Company on Instrument {
  estimateData {
    modelType
    researchCurrency
    estimates {
      date
      recommendation
      targetPrice
    }
  }
}

fragment TeaserCompact_content on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  __typename
  id
  type
  title
  createdAt
  isPremium
  pageUrl
  lang
  companies {
    ...CompanyTagList
    id
  }
  ... on Video {
    liveTime
  }
  ... on Webcast {
    liveTime
  }
  ...AuthorList
}

fragment TeaserExtraCompact_content on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  id
  title
  createdAt
  pageUrl
  lang
  companies {
    name
    pageUrl
    viewerIsFollowing
    id
  }
}

fragment Teaser_content on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  __typename
  id
  type
  title
  createdAt
  pageUrl
  imgUrl
  isPremium
  lang
  companies {
    ...CompanyTagList
    id
  }
  publishers {
    imgUrl
  }
  authors {
    __typename
    id
  }
  ... on AnalystComment {
    preview
  }
  ... on Article {
    preview
  }
  ... on CompanyReport {
    preview
  }
  ... on ThirdPartyCompanyReport {
    preview
  }
  ... on QA {
    preview
  }
  ... on Video {
    preview
    liveTime
    videoDuration
  }
  ... on Webcast {
    preview
    liveTime
  }
  ...AuthorList
  ...Reactions
}

fragment UpcomingEventsQuery_Ux1x9 on Query {
  company(companySlug: $companyName) {
    defaultInstrument {
      calendarEvents(first: 10) {
        edges {
          node {
            date
            type
            period
            id
          }
        }
      }
      id
    }
    id
  }
}


name

description

pageUrl

defaultInstrument

companyInsref

viewerIsFollowing

followersCount

isCorporateCustomer

hasPinpointData

hasDividendHistory

sector

regions

extensiveExists

topOwners

insiderTransactions

isPayingCustomerOf

isFormerCustomerOf

extensive

feedContent

Protector Forsikring

Annual Report 2025

Protector Forsikring ASA: Ex dividend NOK 6.00 today

Key information relating to the declared cash dividend to be paid by Protector Forsikring ASA

2025: CR 84.7 %, earnings per share NOK 31.7

Correction: Update on volume growth

Update on volume growth

Invitation to presentation of Protector Forsikring ASA’s FY & 4th quarter results 2025

Forthcoming update on gross written premiums for Protector Forsikring ASA, Wednesday 21.01.2026

Euronext Oslo Børs - Protector Forsikring ASA - Received application for listing of bonds

Protector Forsikring ASA – Prospectus approved for listing of bonds

Mandatory notification of trade - Protector Forsikring ASA

Protector Forsikring ASA: Exercise of call option on ISIN NO0010914443 (PROT05)

PROTECTOR FORSIKRING ASA – SUCCESSFUL PLACEMENT OF NEW PERPETUAL RESTRICTED TIER 1 BOND ISSUE

Protector Forsikring ASA: Ex dividend NOK 3.00 today

PROTECTOR FORSIKRING ASA – NEW RT1 MANDATE ANNOUNCEMENT

Q3 2025: CR 83.1%, earnings per share NOK 5.6 – dividend NOK 3.00 per share

Oslo Børs

Protector Forsikring is a general P&C insurance company with two main segments: Public and Commercial (incl. Affinity). Protector's market strategy is to offer standardized insurance products to competitive prices through insurance brokers only. All of Protector’s value chains are insourced and all of their core insurance systems are developed in-house.

The webcast revealed that only 10% of bids were won in France, meaning that the deals won have not come through aggressive pricing. They had assumed that growth there would be even stronger. Apparently, in property insurance, the insurance company AXA has significantly lowered its prices compared to the 2025 situation. There are also difficulties regarding growth in Sweden and the UK; i.e., the market is softening and prices are coming down. In contrast, there is strong growth in Denmark and Norway, though they are smaller markets. I believe the share price reaction is driven by the tightened competitive situation in the largest markets (UK and Sweden) and the information regarding the competitive situation in French property insurance. Below are the updated 2026 bear, base, and bull scenario calculations. The base case growth assumption of 20% may seem high, but in practice, 7.7 percentage points are already secured (contracts made in Q1 correspond to about a third of the contract portfolio and Jan 1st gross written premium growth was 25%) from the Jan 1st growth alone, so “only” 17.7% growth is needed for the rest of the year. Additionally, the decrease in the reinsurance level boosts net earned premium/revenue growth, which is reflected in the top line of the income statement. Regarding the combined ratio, I made an assumption in the base case that France triples its size by 2026 and the CR drops to 110%, with the loss ratio falling to around 90% and the cost ratio to around 20%. Otherwise, the same CR level as in 2025 is assumed. I calculated AUMs simplistically as Dec 31, 2025 values +10%, reflecting the year’s average AUM. 2025 AUM grew by approx. 20% driven by business growth and investment returns. AUM growth largely goes hand-in-hand with business growth, and that is also the current default assumption. For bond yields, I assume the same 5% as in 2025, as the yield was 4.9% on Dec 31, 2025. Equity returns fluctuate the most, and a 10% base assumption for the current year might be overly optimistic considering last year’s rally (Protector’s CAGR 12%). With that 10% assumption, the EPS impact of equity returns is approx. +4 NOK vs. 0% return. I raised the acceptable fP/E in the base case to 18. The justifications are an excellent 5-year track record (quality), a good outlook for the fixed income markets, and a clear growth path.      2026 bear 2026 base 2026 bull     Insurance revenue growth 17.5% 20.0% 22.5%   Insurance revenue (mNOK) 16,568 kr 16,920 kr 17,273 kr   Combined ratio 86% 85% 84%   Insurance service result (mNOK) 2,319 kr 2,538 kr 2,764 kr   Average AUM bonds (mNOK) 23,772 kr 23,772 kr 23,772 kr   Average AUM equities (mNOK) 4,762 kr 4,762 kr 4,762 kr   Bond yield (no valuation changes) 5% 5% 5%   Stock return 8% 10% 12%   Investment result (mNOK) 1,570 kr 1,665 kr 1,760 kr   Other expenses and insurance finance expenses (mNOK) −550 kr −550 kr −550 kr   Taxes 23% −768 kr −840 kr −914 kr         Net income (mNOK) 2,571 kr 2,813 kr 3,060 kr   EPS 31 kr 34 kr 37 kr   P/E 16 18 20         Mcap (mNOK) 41,137 kr 50,628 kr 61,194 kr   TP 499 kr 614 kr 743 kr

Earnings report is out. In summary, the underwriting result exceeded expectations, but investment income disappointed, especially due to negative equity investment returns. EPS fell short of expectations, but I still believe it will lean slightly positive, as quarterly equity returns are unlikely to be given such high weight. France’s 1.1.2026 tender pipeline looks promising: 460mEUR worth of requests for proposals, of which Prote is bidding on 70-75%. Quite a high percentage, as they are much more selective in other markets, but they are apparently getting a feel for the market, which is perfectly fine. In the UK, the first real estate client was won - let’s hope this provides a new growth opportunity  Denmark, which had been problematic for a long time, was the star performer this quarter with a remarkable CR of 71.9%. This can be attributed to the sale of the workers’ compensation insurance portfolio earlier in the year. It was also noted that Prote’s investor pages have been revamped, and a quick scroll gives, in my opinion, the most essential information about the company.

Alright, the preliminary growth figures for 2025 and the Jan 1, 2026 gross written premium growth figures have been released, which are very significant for the full year’s growth (approx. one-third). In about every third of Prote’s insurance contracts, the policy period is the calendar year, and thus Jan 1 is the first day of the period. 2025 GWP growth is 14% in local currencies, which I think is a solid level compared to Prote’s history. In contrast, the Jan 1 growth is an outstanding 25%, of which the French market, opened in 2025, accounts for 47%!!!    This means they have really won over clients there. Hopefully, more information regarding French profitability will be available in next week’s earnings release. Based on these figures, I updated my tables a bit, and the base case gives a target price of 620-650 with a P/E of 17.5, depending slightly on the development of investment assets, for which there will be more info next week. I’ll publish the updated table then. It might also be worth considering whether a P/E of 17.5 is too conservative a valuation, given the growth, ROE, and track record. Edit. Corrected an error regarding the January 1st share of the full year’s growth.

I am updating my simple forecast below. Growth needs to be slowed down a bit and profitability increased. Also, investment returns slightly up. In the previous one, I incorrectly used GWP (Gross Written Premium) instead of insurance revenue, which in Proten’s case is 5-7% lower than GWP and comes slightly after GWP.   Insurance revenue growth +19% => Insurance revenue ~14,000mNOK FY 2025   Combined ratio 85% => underwriting result ~2,100mNOK   AUM avg. 25,000mNOK, of which bonds ~21,000mNOK and equities ~4,000mNOK   From bonds, interest income only 5.2% => 1,090mNOK and from equities 10% => 400mNOK, total 1,490mNOK   Other expenses and insurance finance expenses total -500mNOK   Taxes 25% / -770mNOK    Net result 2,320mNOK vs. 1,539mNOK FY 2024, i.e., EPS approx. 28 NOK (50% growth) Largely, we are proceeding at the pace of my previous forecast. Q4 CR (Combined Ratio) is expected to rise slightly as winter weather increases vehicle claims. If equity returns turn profitable, investment income could be well over 300mNOK in Q4, bringing us close to 28NOK.

Q4 is out investor-presentation-fy-and-q4-2025-prot.pdf (2.4 MB) It was certainly pleasing to my eye, and I believe the market’s opinion won’t differ from this. Q4 highlights:   Growth 12% in local currencies.   Combined ratio 85% vs. 84.2% Q4/24, so slightly weaker. the UK and Sweden improved slightly, while Norway and Denmark weakened. France, as a new market, is a drag on profitability (CR 121.8%).   Loss ratio rose 0.9 percentage points to 73.5% and the cost ratio improved 0.2 percentage points to 11.4% despite the ramp-up in France (where the cost ratio is 22.8%)   Investment return 2.1% vs. -0.4% Q4/24. Equities yielded a nice 7.1% in the quarter and bonds a stable 1.2%. Note! Q3 equities yielded -1.9%, so there is naturally some volatility. Equities’ share of the result before tax is ~24% for FY2025.   EPS an impressive 8.5 NOK   Quarterly dividend 6 NOK (NOTE! dividend distribution is reviewed quarterly and Protector may even skip dividends in some quarters if there is better use for the capital elsewhere.   Solvency after dividend is a strong 197%, as firepower is needed for growth in France. Solvency requirements also rose because Protector reduced its reinsurance coverage.   Reinsurance retention level has been increased, meaning Protector gets to keep a larger share of the gross premiums. This boosts revenue growth and profitability in the long term, but correspondingly increases the volatility of the technical result, as a larger share of large losses is borne by Prot.   2025 highlights:  Growth 14% in local currencies. Growth was steady across all markets, meaning the UK is no longer the sole growth driver. ROE an impressive 42% (cf. Inderes’ forecast for Sampo 26.7% in 2025) Combined ratio 84.7% vs. 88.1% FY2024. Clearly the biggest improver was Denmark (117.6% => 86.6%), which has been a headache for a long time. Evidence that corrective actions in the insurance industry can be made very quickly. In Denmark’s case, the loss-making workers’ compensation portfolio was sold off and no new contracts are being made. Cost ratio rose 0.5 percentage points to 11.1%, mainly due to France. Loss ratio decreased 3.9% to 73.6%. Investment returns strong at 7.3% vs. 4.9% FY24. Equities yielded 20.3% and bonds 5.2%. Renewal rate 95%, meaning customer retention is very strong. Evidence of the effectiveness of the company’s strategy: focusing on the broker channel, precise risk selection based on own strengths in each market, and cost efficiency. The company reached the top spot in broker satisfaction surveys in every market. France was not yet included.  Outlook:  January 1st (key policy renewal date) growth 25% in local currencies, of which France’s share is 47%. This means that France will double its size with this sale alone in FY26. On the flip side, France’s weaker profitability will drag down the CR at the group level with its larger volume. It took 3 years for the UK to become profitable. And that was a good performance! So nothing new here, but of course France’s profitability must be monitored. France’s loss ratio was high at 97.1% FY25. It would be interesting to hear comments on why this is. The customer base was small last year, so individual claims could already explain that. I will try to update my spreadsheets in the coming days and post my own forecast for the current year.  I expect a significantly positive share price reaction today.

I outlined next year’s results a bit, and compared to the previous message, I need to temper expectations. I considered 33kr EPS as a base case and 17.5 P/E with current performance as a neutral valuation level => TP (Target Price) for a year out is 578kr, roughly a 30% annual return considering a 2% dividend. I added today at the 451kr level, as I believe the downside risk is very limited, and stable insurance operations are appealing in this turbulence. A bear case is also quite possible, meaning EPS would stagnate relative to the current year. I set the multiple at 15, but with that performance, it could just as well be 17.5. I don’t believe growth will slow down to 5% at all. A bull case is also possible, but unlikely. It would require a major breakthrough in France (growth) and conditions similar to the current year regarding the loss ratio (no major storms and/or moderate large losses). Stock returns would also need to reach current year levels. In the big picture, I don’t believe stock returns will be similar to what has been seen in the last 3 years. Reasons:  The significantly improved combined ratio is, I believe, pretty much at its maximum in terms of the company’s targets, i.e., keeping pricing competitive. Interest income has stabilized Additionally, the P/E multiple has risen from around 12 to 15-17 during this time. Of course, it could still stretch to the comparables’ 20 levels, which is a wild card for returns.  But for the current price, a decent 15-20% annual return should be achievable over the next few years.      2026 bear 2026 base 2026 bull     Insurance revenue growth 10% 15% 20%   Insurance revenue (mNOK) 15 070 kr 15 755 kr 16 440 kr   Combined ratio 86% 85% 84%   Insurance service result (mNOK) 2 110 kr 2 363 kr 2 630 kr   AUM bonds average (mNOK) 25 500 kr 25 500 kr 25 500 kr   AUM stocks average (mNOK) 4 400 kr 4 400 kr 4 400 kr   Bond yield (no value changes) 5% 5% 5%   Stock return 8% 10% 12%   Investment result (mNOK) 1 627 kr 1 715 kr 1 803 kr   Other expenses and insurance finance expenses (mNOK) −450 kr −450 kr −450 kr   Taxes 25% −822 kr −907 kr −996 kr         Net income (mNOK) 2 465 kr 2 721 kr 2 988 kr   EPS 30 kr 33 kr 36 kr   P/E 15 17,5 20         Mcap (mNOK) 36 977 kr 47 621 kr 59 751 kr   TP 449 kr 578 kr 725 kr

Thanks for the heartwarming comment!  Judging by the share price reaction, the markets are staring at an EPS miss. It’s starting to smell like I need to dig out my buying pants from the closet. For next year, an EPS of 36-38 is quite possible, assuming that insurance premium income growth is 15-20% (France’s growth and premium increases alone are estimated to bring 10%), a slight improvement in CR (Denmark and the scaling

AWC AS

Stenshagen Invest