DNB Markets - Verisec: Freja eID - worth the wait
Quarterly volatility in the legacy business remains high, and while 2019 sales growth of 31% was a clear step forward, Q4 disappointed. With recent impressive `relying parties' announcements, we expect Verisec's Freja eID offering to become better reflected in the share price. We have lowered our fair value to SEK100-140 (110-150), but this still suggests an attractive investment opportunity in our view.
Q4 takeaways. Q4 sales growth of 1% YOY was below our 24% expectation, with sales of SEK20m (18% below our estimate) as we had underestimated the quarterly lumpiness of the sales cycles in its legacy business. The top line was flat YOY with a 9% YOY increase in opex, resulting in a -47% EBIT margin (we forecast -29%). At end-Q4, its cash position was SEK10m (with a SEK22m unutilised credit facility); and with an annual FCF burn rate of cSEK25m-30m in 2016-2019, our base case assumes Verisec is adequately capitalised as long as Freja eID attracts a user base in 2020. For Freja eID, we believe Verisec has signed ~140 relying parties, in line with our target, of which around a third are offering Freja eID as an identification method, suggesting it is on track to reach 250+ by end-2020 (versus BankID at 600+).
Freja eID news flow has been impressive of late, but two announcements worth highlighting are: 1) the partnership with Microsoft to provide secure login to Microsoft's public sector cloud service Office 365 (foremost for municipalities), which validates the Freja eID technology; and 2) being chosen as the exclusive eID for users of Studentkortet and the STUK app with ~600,000 active members, which highlights its ambition to build a user base where BankID is not as strong (target audience aged 13-25), providing a solid platform for user base growth in 2020.
Fair value lowered to SEK100-140/share (110-150), suggesting we see an attractive investment opportunity trading at a 2020e EV/Sales of 3.2x (30% discount to its historical average). We consider Freja eID's user base growth a potential swing factor on its valuation, as we forecast a 30% sales CAGR until 2022e. Still, the discount to peers and its own historical average will likely remain until management starts disclosing Freja eID sales or provides proof-points of user updates in 2020.
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Best regards
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Joachim Gunell | DNB Markets | Equity Research
DNB Bank ASA, Filial Sverige
Visiting address: Regeringsgatan 59, Stockholm
Postal address: 105 88 Stockholm
E-mail: joachim.gunell@dnb.se| www.dnb.no