contentSlug

type

ContentSlug_ContentQuery

slug

ContentPageContentQuery

content

trendingContent

query ContentSlug_ContentQuery(
  $contentSlug: String!
  $type: [ContentType!]
) {
  ...ContentPageContentQuery_13QmVO
}

fragment CompanyDetails_Content on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  companies {
    name
    description
    pageUrl
    id
  }
}

fragment ContentBasicInfo on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  id
  type
  title
  lang
  companies {
    viewerIsFollowing
    id
    name
    pageUrl
  }
  tags {
    viewerIsFollowing
    id
    name
    pageUrl
  }
  ...PublishingDetails
  ...Reactions
}

fragment ContentMetadata on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  type
  title
  lang
  pageUrl
  alternatePageUrls: translations {
    __typename
    pageUrl
    lang
  }
  imgUrl
  description
  ... on Video {
    liveTime
    videoUrl
  }
  ... on Webcast {
    liveTime
    videoUrl
  }
}

fragment ContentPageContentQuery_13QmVO on Query {
  content(slug: $contentSlug, type: $type) {
    __typename
    id
    type
    title
    isPremium
    lang
    htmlBody
    summary
    companies {
      forum {
        latestPosts {
          ...ForumPosts
        }
      }
      name
      id
      viewerIsFollowing
      pageUrl
      defaultInstrument {
        isin
        id
        marketOpen
        marketClose
        marketplace {
          region
        }
        returns {
          total
        }
      }
    }
    tags {
      viewerIsFollowing
      id
      name
      pageUrl
    }
    createdAt
    ... on Video {
      liveTime
    }
    ... on Webcast {
      liveTime
    }
    slug
    ... on CompanyReport {
      reportUrl
    }
    ... on ThirdPartyCompanyReport {
      reportUrl
    }
    ... on StockExchangeRelease {
      reportUrl
    }
    ...ContentBasicInfo
    ...ContentMetadata
    ...PriceAndRecommendation_Content
    ...CompanyDetails_Content
    ...ReportLink_Content
    ...KeyFigures_Content
  }
  ...TrendingContent_1jQ2Cn
}

fragment ForumPosts on ForumPost {
  text
  likesCount
  url
  author
  postedAt
  authorImgUrl
}

fragment KeyFigures_Content on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  companies {
    defaultInstrument {
      estimateData {
        modelType
        reportingCurrency
      }
      snapshot {
        transaction {
          date
          actualized {
            year
            quarter
            revenue
            revenueGrowth
            ebitAdjusted
            ebitReported
            ebitda
            enterpriseValue
            epsAdjusted
            dividend
            dividendYield
            sharePrice
          }
          estimates {
            year
            quarter
            revenue
            revenueGrowth
            ebitAdjusted
            ebitReported
            ebitda
            enterpriseValue
            epsAdjusted
            dividend
            dividendYield
            sharePrice
          }
        }
      }
      id
    }
    id
  }
}

fragment PriceAndRecommendation_Content on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  createdAt
  companies {
    name
    pageUrl
    defaultInstrument {
      priceData {
        tradeCurrency
      }
      snapshot {
        priceData {
          date
          lastPrice
          tradeCurrency
        }
        transaction {
          date
          recommendation
          targetPrice
        }
        prevTransaction {
          recommendation
        }
      }
      id
    }
    id
  }
}

fragment PublishingDetails on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  createdAt
  publishers {
    name
    imgUrl
  }
  authors {
    __typename
    id
    name
    slug
    imgUrl
    jobTitle
  }
  ... on Video {
    liveTime
  }
  ... on Webcast {
    liveTime
  }
}

fragment Reactions on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  id
  reactionGroups {
    reactionType
    reactionsCount
    viewerReacted
  }
}

fragment ReportLink_Content on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  type
  isPremium
  ... on CompanyReport {
    reportUrl
  }
  ... on ThirdPartyCompanyReport {
    reportUrl
  }
  ... on StockExchangeRelease {
    reportUrl
  }
}

fragment TrendingContent_1jQ2Cn on Query {
  trendingContent(type: ARTICLE) {
    __typename
    id
    title
    lang
    pageUrl
    createdAt
    type
    imgUrl
    companies {
      squareLogoUrl
      name
      id
    }
    authors {
      __typename
      imgUrl
      id
    }
    publishers {
      imgUrl
    }
  }
}


outokumpu-oyj-inside-information-profit-warning-outokumpus-fourth-quarter-2024-adjusted-ebitda-expected-to-be-close-to-break-even-or-turn-negative

__typename

title

isPremium

lang

htmlBody

summary

companies

createdAt

publishers

authors

reactionGroups

pageUrl

translations

imgUrl

description

Outukumpu is a manufacturer of stainless steel and the group offers specialized solutions for various industrial purposes. The steel is used in tools, industrial infrastructure, and medical equipment. Customers are found on a global level, primarily in Europe and North America. Sales take place via global sales and service centers. The head office is located in Helsinki.

Some working document states that the new basic principles announced earlier in the autumn are still included, such as the 2013 volume level (approx. 50% of current import levels), after which a 50% tariff (now 25%) and the melted & poured rule. The transfer of unused imports to the next period would have been reinstated.  The 1.1. schedule is not realistic, perhaps 1.4. could be possible  A leaked draft report from the European Parliament’s Committee on International Trade shows lawmakers preparing to back the European Commission’s plan for a 50% over-quota duty on steel imports, while allowing quarterly carry-over of quota volumes, Fastmarkets learned on Thursday November 27.  The draft text from November 24, which has not yet been adopted and remains subject to amendment, confirms that tariff-free steel import quotas would continue to be based on 2013 reference volumes, so about 50% below currently available allocation, with any out-of-quota shipments facing the sharply higher 50% duty, in line with the first draft, published on October 7. The document reconfirms the Commission’s “melt and pour” origin verification requirement for all covered imports.   In the new leaked draft, one of the suggested amendments read: “To ensure continuity and to avoid supply disruptions, carry-over of unused quarterly tariff quota volumes to the following quarter should be permitted. This would provide the necessary operational flexibility while maintaining the overall effectiveness of the measure.”   Market sources, however, believe the deadline of January 1 is not realistic, since the draft needs to go through a “complex negotiations process” before entering into force.  “Procedures in the trilogue take quite some time,” a source in the EU steel market said.  Several market sources suggested that April 1 was a “feasible” deadline for adoption of the new trade regime, while the Commission declined to comment on the timeline.                    EUROMETAL - The Voice of European Steel, Tubes and Metal Distribution... – 28 Nov 25              Leaked European Parliament draft on safeguards backs 50% steel over-quota...    A leaked draft report from the European Parliament’s Committee on International Trade shows lawmakers preparing to back the European Commission’s plan for a 50% over-quota duty on steel imports, while allowing quarterly carry-over of quota volumes,...

One would gladly believe and hope that Outokumpu’s investments in both capex and opex would produce something that others don’t do and that wouldn’t collectively be given away for the customers’ benefit… According to Inderes’ DCF calculation, the fair value of future cash flows is around 4.9 EUR, i.e., let’s say +20% in 10 years compared to today’s share price of 4.00 EUR, meaning a few real % per year, of course, a 9.9% interest rate is calculated for equity here. Perhaps the simplest way is to look at the free cash flow of approx. 215 MEUR, which amounts to about 45.6 c/share for 471 million shares, i.e., a P/E of 8.8 from super-cyclical sluggishness, even though gross investments are a conventional 220 MEUR (maintenance investments, productivity investments, and some smaller new ones). But, it could be that those Evolve initiatives are achieved, and the back door doesn’t leak output for the “common good”. Indeed, it was stated in the CMD that  EBITDA “normalised baseline” 500-600 (current) => 750-850 MEUR (2030) funds for activities including dividends from cash flow / through working capital (according to CMD illustrative image approx. 80%), the rest debt financing That EBITDA change would indeed be significant, because half of the current level would truly go to conventional investment, meaning the remaining portion would double once the investments have been paid off.  For years, Outokumpu has been a company that has achieved poorly sustained performance levels; perhaps the benefits given to customers and cyclicality then overshadow the declared achievements. However, from its own investments, Outokumpu has indeed been remarkably rewarding, as long as one remembers more than just holding.  I myself also expect a good coming year (as already in 2023 and 2024). Now with extra support from  a flawed and poorly implemented CBAM, but something nonetheless the EU’s naive and gullible steel policy correction package / tariffs by 1.7.2026 at the latest as an option, the stabilization and recovery of the EU’s general misery, and with it a demand surge as an option, the reconstruction of Ukraine

I wouldn’t interpret those numbers quite so pessimistically. I had to listen to Kati’s Inderes presentation again, with time. Outokumpu does have a clear “strategy” for improving margins. It also requires investments. The numbers are expected to improve. AI-calculated scenario.  2) Realistic scenario – EVOLVE partially succeeds Assumptions P/BV rises 0.5 → 0.7–0.8 EBITDA grows +150…200 M€ Dividend 4–6 % / year Average economic cycle ROI estimate A. Increase in valuation multiple: 0.5 → 0.75 = +50 % B. Dividends over 10 years: ≈ 5 % / year → +50 % total (assuming dividends are reinvested, return could be up to +60–70 %)  Total return 10y: ≈ +100…+140 %  Annual return: ≈ 7–9 % / year This is the “most likely” long-term scenario held by many analysts

The only thing Outokumpu should invest in is its own stock. To put it a bit pointedly. No dividends, but large-scale share buybacks.

Well then, we’ll see if Kati ter Horst keeps her word that investments in Finland will not materialize… When the company’s valuation is P/BV = 0.5, it’s understandable not to invest, or ROI <<5%

Helsingin Sanomat – 27 Nov 25              HS:n tiedot | Purra piti päänsä: Kaivosvero kiristyy    Muut hallituspuolueet olisivat olleet valmiita peruuttamaan ja valmistelemaan uuden veromallin, mutta perussuomalaisille se ei käynyt. Kuntien osuus verotuotosta kuitenkin kasvaa esitetystä.                             Quote from Helsingin Sanomat headline. Part of the “dividend funds” flows there. Or if we manage to prepare a new model next year, we will get a model that is more easily acceptable to the industry.

I myself do not see that this recently announced 45 mUSD investment will cause a dip in the dividend level, but indeed, the dividend policy has prepared, as Kati also said in her presentation, for flexibility if/when (larger) investments are made in high-return targets. I consider such an investment, for example, a potential investment in Avesta (approx. 200m€) for the production of high-nickel products. Kati stated that if the dividend level were to be lowered for year x due to such an investment, the aim would be to return to the previous curve afterwards. It was also clarified in the CMD that the starting level is the current 0.26 euros per share. It is quite possible, of course, that before the next dividend proposal is given, this Avesta study will have been completed and the investment decision made

Outokumpu

Outokumpu Corporation Inside information December 12, 2024 at 9.40 pm EETAccording to the guidance given on October 30, 2024, Outokumpu's adjusted EBITDA in the fourth quarter of 2024 is expected...

<div class="abstract">Outokumpu Corporation Inside information December 12, 2024 at 9.40 pm EET</div>According to the guidance given on October 30, 2024, Outokumpu's adjusted EBITDA in the fourth quarter of 2024 is expected to be lower compared to the third quarter (Q3/24: EUR 86 million). Due to recent adverse development in business area Europe, group adjusted EBITDA is expected to be close to break-even or turn negative for the fourth quarter. This is driven by the weaker-than-expected stainless steel market, longer than planned annual maintenance break at the Tornio site in Finland and a negative inventory value impact.Outokumpu's stainless steel deliveries in the fourth quarter are expected to decrease by 0-10% compared to the third quarter, as stated in the outlook, but to be closer to the lower end of the given range.Outokumpu's fourth-quarter 2024 adjusted EBITDA guidance remains lower compared to the third quarter. *)Outokumpu will publish its full year 2024 results on February 13, 2025.*) Outokumpu uses three ways to guide for its adjusted EBITDA - lower, similar level, higher.For more information:Investors: Linda Häkkilä, Head of Investor Relations, tel. +358 400 719 669Media: Päivi Allenius, SVP - Brand and Communications, tel. +358 40 753 7374, or media desk, +358 40 351 9840, email: media(at)Outokumpu.com &nbsp;<div></div>