SEB's China Financial Index rose to 56.2 in the first half of 2026, up from 55.1 at the end of 2025, pointing to a continued improvement in business confidence among Northern European companies in China.
The latest reading marks a fourth consecutive increase and brings sentiment close to long-term average levels, indicating a gradual normalisation after an extended period of uncertainty. The improvement is mainly driven by stronger order intake and a more positive profit outlook, while investment sentiment remains stable and staffing expectations soften slightly. Together, the components suggest that companies are seeing more stable operating conditions, although not yet a full recovery.
"These results align with other recent business surveys in China, suggesting a broader improvement in sentiment", says Juliette Xue Lascoux, General Manager of SEB Shanghai.
Companies report solid sales expectations, while profit the outlooks are improving more cautiously. Many firms continue to highlight pressure on margins and intense competition from local players, requiring faster adaptation to changing demand.
"Profitability remains a key concern. Companies face strong competition from local players that often accept lower margins and respond more quickly to market shifts", Juliette Xue Lascoux says.
China remains an important market, although investment strategies are increasingly selective. Companies prioritise expanding existing operations rather than pursuing acquisitions or entering new areas.
At the same time, businesses face persistent challenges. Material costs, customer demand and competition remain key concerns, while supply chain disruptions are becoming more pronounced. Geopolitics continues to influence decision-making, with 76 per cent of respondents expecting it to affect their business.
About the survey
SEB's China Financial Index was launched in 2007 and is based on responses from senior executives at subsidiaries of major Northern European and international companies in China. The survey was conducted between 29 May and 5 June 2026.
Key survey data
| Indicator | H1 2026 | Previous |
| China Financial Index (overall) | 56.2 | 55.1 |
| Investment outlook | 60.6 | 60.6 |
| Staffing outlook | 52.6 | 53.2 |
| Expect sales growth >5% | 46% | 36% |
| Plan to increase investment | 43% | 43% |