Agillic (Investment case): Strategy delivering, growth stabilising, earnings scaling

In connection with Agillic's Q1 2026 report, we have updated our investment case on the company.

Agillic published its Q1 2026 results this morning, confirming the positive trends from 2025 - growth is stabilising, earnings are running ahead of the topline, and cash flows are turning positive. ARR from subscriptions grew 6% YoY to DKK 57.5m, supported by new client wins, upsell to existing clients, and reduced churn. Subscription revenue increased 4% YoY, while EBITDA more than tripled to DKK 2.5m at a 17.6% margin, driven by a higher gross margin and structural cost reductions. Cash flow from operations reached DKK 4.5m, up DKK 2.6m from Q1 2025.

Management maintains its 2026 guidance of 5-10% ARR growth, an EBITDA margin of 12-18%, and positive free cash flow for the year. The Q1 performance lands well within the guidance ranges.

Our updated investment case covers the key investment reasons and risks as well as valuation perspectives against a peer group of Danish listed SaaS companies.

The investment thesis centers on the Nordic strategy implemented by CEO Christian Samsø since he took over in late 2024, local presence, a more focused sales organization, and faster, more client-centric product releases. The strategy is translating into new logo wins, lower churn, and a return to ARR growth. At the same time, earnings are scaling faster than the topline, demonstrating the operating leverage in the business model as ARR approaches the cost base. Agillic's EU-based infrastructure and GDPR-compliant technology are increasingly recognized as differentiators versus the larger, predominantly US-based competitors, particularly as data sovereignty concerns grow across European enterprises.

The AI angle cuts both ways. On the opportunity side, the surge in AI-driven synthetic content - estimated to reach 90% of content by end of 2026 - combined with the 4,000-10,000 marketing messages the average consumer is exposed to daily, makes personalization increasingly critical. On the risk side, the pace of AI development means falling behind is a real threat for any software vendor. Agillic is progressing with new AI features and AI agents, and is partly insulated by serving large customers with strong compliance and security requirements.

Key risks include the highly competitive customer engagement software market with very large and mature incumbents, the difficulty of differentiating with limited capital, and uncertainty around whether the emerging positive cash flow will be sufficient to cover debt repayments, which could require refinancing.

From a valuation perspective, Agillic trades at 1.6x EV/ARR (2026E), a significant discount to the Danish SaaS peer median of 3.8x. The growth-adjusted ARR multiple of 0.21x is in line with the peer median of 0.21x, suggesting the EV/ARR discount is largely explained by Agillic's lower ARR growth rate of 8% (2026E) versus the peer median of 18% - but does not capture Agillic's higher profitability relative to the peer group. On earnings multiples, Agillic trades at approximately 10.4x EV/EBITDA (2026E) versus 51.2x for the two profitable Danish SaaS peers, highlighting that the shift toward profitability is not yet reflected in the valuation. A return to higher ARR growth, supported by improving net retention, remains the most direct path to narrowing the discount.

For further insights into the Q1 2026 results, the strategic direction, and how Agillic is approaching AI, you can watch the event we hosted with CEO Christian Samsø:

Agillic - Q1 2026 Event

Disclaimer: HC Andersen Capital receives payment from Agillic for a Digital IR/Corporate Visibility subscription agreement. /Michael Friis, 11:00, 24/04-2026.