Aiforia H2'25: Green shoots on the clinical side

Translation: Original published in Finnish on 3/9/2026 at 7:00 am EET.

Aiforia’s H2 revenue surpassed our expectations, and the earnings were in line with our estimate. The growth originated in Europe, where the company has successfully promoted the adoption of clinical models. According to the company, recurring revenue accounts for approximately 2 MEUR, or roughly half of its 2025 revenue. EBIT was -5.8 MEUR and cash at the end of the period was 9.5 MEUR. The report provided an initial positive indication of the long-awaited growth. The investment's risk profile remains high due to losses and uncertainty regarding the growth rate. We are revising our long-term forecasts downward in line with the gradual development of the growth story and updating our target price to EUR 2.4 (was EUR 3.2). We reiterate our Accumulate recommendation based on the positive turnaround in the risk/reward ratio.

Revenue shows signs of commercial progress among clinical customers

The market for Aiforia's digital pathology solutions is still small and in its early stages. However, the company appears well-positioned to benefit from the industry's gradually expanding use of AI models. The company has won several clinical customers in recent years and has become a market leader.

H2 revenue climbed to 2.14 MEUR (+45%, Inderes: 1.92 MEUR). Growth was driven in particular by the clinical segment, which experienced significant revenue growth (+68% in 2025 vs. 2024). EBIT (H2’25: -5.8 MEUR) remained heavily in the red, in line with our expectations. Cash and cash equivalents at the end of the period amounted to 9.5 MEUR after the 4.2 MEUR share issue completed in December. According to our estimates, the financing will be sufficient until the turn of Q3/Q4.

We revise our longer-term forecasts downward based on slow market development

The digital pathology market has taken longer to develop than expected. Market leader Aiforia has won numerous customer contracts, the commercial ramp-ups of which have taken time. There was preliminary positive revenue development in H2, so our revenue forecasts for the coming years, which anticipate strong growth, remain unchanged. However, we are clearly lowering our longer-term growth forecasts based on our view that it will take the market longer to form than we had previously expected.

We expect EBIT to turn positive in 2030, supported by growth, and the company to carry out 8+12 MEUR share issues in 2026 and 2027. Given the strongest market position and customer wins in the sector, we believe that securing financing will be successful, albeit at an uncertain valuation. We expect revenue to reach 25 MEUR by 2030, requiring very strong strategy execution, new customer wins, and successful implementations.

Despite lower estimates, the decline in the share price keeps the risk/reward attractive

Aiforia's valuation (2025-27e EV/S 25-15x) relies on expectations of very strong and scalable growth. By pricing growth with varying coefficients and confidence intervals, we can justify the company's value within a wide range of EUR 0.5-5.3 per share which decreased in line with our estimates. Overall, we see the stock's valuation as justified at the midpoint of the range. In our view, the uncertainty regarding the growth coefficient remains a key weakness and risk in Aiforia’s investment story, which has already materialized due to the slower-than-expected revenue recognition from customer contracts. This also affects cash development and the amount of earnings-dilutive share dilution. Looking further ahead, the company still offers an attractive return expectation due to its strongly developing customer base, which in our view justifies taking on the high risks of the investment case at the current valuation.