Translation: Original published in Finnish on 04/30/2026 at 08:15 am EEST

Alma Media's Q1 earnings were a clear positive surprise, as the company's profitability strengthened significantly from the comparison period. We have slightly raised our estimates, which anticipate increasing profitability development in the coming years. In our view, the share is attractively priced relative to our forecast of earnings growth outlook. Thus, we reiterate our Accumulate recommendation and EUR 15.0 target price.

Significant leap in profitability

Alma Media's Q1 revenue increased by 5% to 83.1 MEUR, which was fully in line with our expectations. The domestic market has developed sluggishly, particularly reflecting weak consumer confidence, but the Czech recruitment business, in particular, grew well. In addition, the Swedish commercial property business under Marketplaces continued its strong growth, and acquisitions boosted the segment's revenue growth to a double-digit pace. Alma Media's adjusted EBIT in Q1 was 20.4 MEUR, corresponding to a very good margin of 24.6% (Q1'25: 21.7%), and clearly exceeding our estimate. The estimate beat was due to better-than-expected performance in all three segments, as the company has continued strict cost control and even managed to reduce its cost base. We commented on Alma Media's Q1'26 earnings in more detail on Wednesday, which can be read here.

Guidance remained unchanged

Alma Media reiterated its guidance for 2026, expecting its revenue to remain at the previous year's level and adjusted EBIT to grow. In the first quarter, the company's revenue grew by 5% and earnings by 19% from the comparison period. Thus, the company is well on track with its guidance. However, uncertainty for the year is caused by the ripple effects of the Iranian conflict, which are likely to curb investments in durable goods (cars and housing) and the advertising market in Finland. Thus, in our assessment, the outlook for organic growth is not particularly favorable, but due to the company's own actions, our confidence in the company's earnings growth is high.

We raised our estimates slightly

We slightly raised our revenue estimates for Career, reflecting the good development of classified revenues and the early-year development of invoicing, which anticipates future trends. For Marketplaces, we also slightly raised our estimates, driven by the growth in classified and digital revenues, which gained momentum from product innovations. However, our earnings estimates for all segments increased as we raised our short- and medium-term profitability estimates for them. However, some of this was offset by an increase in group costs, so our adjusted EBIT estimates for the coming years increased by 1-3%. We expect scalable growth from Alma Media in the coming years, as our average revenue growth estimate of 3.5% translates into an average adjusted EBIT growth of 8% in our estimates for 2026-2028.

The expected return clearly rises to double digits

Based on the LTM results, the adjusted P/E and EV/EBIT multiples for the stock are just under 16x and 13x. In our view, these valuation multiples are quite moderate, considering Alma Media's high return on capital, good cash flow profile, and growth outlook. Thus, the expected return is driven by our estimated strong earnings growth in the coming years (2026-2028 EPS growth 10%), but there is also a slight upside in the valuation. These, together with our estimated dividend yield of over 4%, raise the expected return for the next few years to a clear double-digit level. The moderate valuation is also suggested by our DCF model, which stands at EUR 15.6 per share. Thus, we consider the current valuation moderate and the stock's risk/reward ratio attractive.