The company has successfully conducted a rights issue raising gross proceeds of SEK 105m, which strengthens its balance sheet and improves the company’s negotiation power with potential partners. Combined with its TO 1 warrants, to be exercised in April 2025, the company is fully financed until end-2025, excluding potential additional partnership milestones. Since the latest rights issue was announced on 10 June 2024, the share price has retreated 78%, reflecting that the market implicitly assumes there is just over 30% probability of success (PoS) for approval and successful launch of Orviglance in the base case scenario. See page 2-3 for further discussions of the model and results.

There are currently no competitors and given its niche market, addressing only around 4% of patients, the market will likely remain competition-free during the 7-year FDA regulatory exclusivity period, suggesting that profitability will be higher for longer. Also, a partner-based commercialization strategy will reduce the funding requirement and support commercial launch around early 2026.

Disclaimer: HC Andersen Capital receives payment from Ascelia Pharma for a Digital IR/Corporate Visibility subscription agreement. /Claus Thestrup 3:50 PM 21-10-2024.