contentSlug

type

ContentSlug_ContentQuery

slug

ContentPageContentQuery

content

trendingContent

query ContentSlug_ContentQuery(
  $contentSlug: String!
  $type: [ContentType!]
) {
  ...ContentPageContentQuery_13QmVO
}

fragment CompanyDetails_Content on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  companies {
    name
    description
    pageUrl
    id
  }
}

fragment ContentBasicInfo on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  id
  type
  title
  lang
  companies {
    viewerIsFollowing
    id
    name
    pageUrl
  }
  tags {
    viewerIsFollowing
    id
    name
    pageUrl
  }
  ...PublishingDetails
  ...Reactions
}

fragment ContentMetadata on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  type
  title
  lang
  pageUrl
  alternatePageUrls: translations {
    __typename
    pageUrl
    lang
  }
  imgUrl
  description
  ... on Video {
    liveTime
    videoUrl
  }
  ... on Webcast {
    liveTime
    videoUrl
  }
}

fragment ContentPageContentQuery_13QmVO on Query {
  content(slug: $contentSlug, type: $type) {
    __typename
    id
    type
    title
    isPremium
    lang
    htmlBody
    summary
    companies {
      forum {
        latestPosts {
          ...ForumPosts
        }
      }
      name
      id
      viewerIsFollowing
      pageUrl
      defaultInstrument {
        isin
        id
        marketOpen
        marketClose
        marketplace {
          region
        }
        returns {
          total
        }
      }
    }
    tags {
      viewerIsFollowing
      id
      name
      pageUrl
    }
    createdAt
    ... on Video {
      liveTime
    }
    ... on Webcast {
      liveTime
    }
    slug
    ... on CompanyReport {
      reportUrl
    }
    ... on ThirdPartyCompanyReport {
      reportUrl
    }
    ... on StockExchangeRelease {
      reportUrl
    }
    ...ContentBasicInfo
    ...ContentMetadata
    ...PriceAndRecommendation_Content
    ...CompanyDetails_Content
    ...ReportLink_Content
    ...KeyFigures_Content
  }
  ...TrendingContent_1jQ2Cn
}

fragment ForumPosts on ForumPost {
  text
  likesCount
  url
  author
  postedAt
  authorImgUrl
}

fragment KeyFigures_Content on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  companies {
    defaultInstrument {
      estimateData {
        modelType
        reportingCurrency
      }
      snapshot {
        transaction {
          date
          actualized {
            year
            quarter
            revenue
            revenueGrowth
            ebitAdjusted
            ebitReported
            ebitda
            enterpriseValue
            epsAdjusted
            dividend
            dividendYield
            sharePrice
            nav
            navPerShare
            opexOfNav
            quarterlySharePrice
          }
          estimates {
            year
            quarter
            revenue
            revenueGrowth
            ebitAdjusted
            ebitReported
            ebitda
            enterpriseValue
            epsAdjusted
            dividend
            dividendYield
            sharePrice
            nav
            navPerShare
            opexOfNav
            quarterlySharePrice
          }
        }
      }
      id
    }
    id
  }
}

fragment PriceAndRecommendation_Content on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  createdAt
  companies {
    name
    pageUrl
    defaultInstrument {
      priceData {
        tradeCurrency
      }
      snapshot {
        priceData {
          date
          lastPrice
          tradeCurrency
        }
        transaction {
          date
          recommendation
          targetPrice
        }
        prevTransaction {
          recommendation
        }
      }
      id
    }
    id
  }
}

fragment PublishingDetails on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  createdAt
  publishers {
    name
    imgUrl
  }
  authors {
    __typename
    id
    name
    slug
    imgUrl
    jobTitle
  }
  ... on Video {
    liveTime
  }
  ... on Webcast {
    liveTime
  }
}

fragment Reactions on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  id
  reactionGroups {
    reactionType
    reactionsCount
    viewerReacted
  }
}

fragment ReportLink_Content on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  type
  isPremium
  ... on CompanyReport {
    reportUrl
  }
  ... on ThirdPartyCompanyReport {
    reportUrl
  }
  ... on StockExchangeRelease {
    reportUrl
  }
}

fragment TrendingContent_1jQ2Cn on Query {
  trendingContent(type: ARTICLE) {
    __typename
    id
    title
    lang
    pageUrl
    createdAt
    type
    imgUrl
    companies {
      squareLogoUrl
      name
      id
    }
    authors {
      __typename
      imgUrl
      id
    }
    publishers {
      imgUrl
    }
  }
}


aspo-performance-was-wild-future-worrisome

__typename

title

isPremium

lang

htmlBody

summary

companies

createdAt

publishers

authors

reactionGroups

pageUrl

translations

imgUrl

description

Analyst

Sauli Vilén

Kasper Mellas

Aspo operates in the transport and logistics industry. The company is run as a conglomerate with the vision of being an active player in the acquisition and development of companies, mainly in the growth markets of Eastern Europe. The industries in which the company has interests include, for example, the grocery retail, industry, and the IT sector. The headquarters are located in Helsinki.

Here are Kassu’s comments regarding Telko CEO Mikko Pasanen leaving his position and Aspo’s Group CEO Rolf Jansson taking over the role in addition to his current duties.                    Inderes              Aspon konsernijohtaja ottaa vetovastuun Telkossa - Inderes    Järjestely on osa edessä siintävää liiketoimintojen eriyttämistä.

Hmm.. I’m a bit skeptical about this: First of all, PANL’s total fleet DWT is 897,000 tons (slightly over) and ESL’s is 116,000 tons. So, acquiring those ESL ships would bring quite little additional capacity (it seems ESL’s ships might be too small for those plans). Secondly, I don’t know, but I’ve understood that those mines would require massive investments first. Of course, this would also mean freight needs (suitable fleet exists for this), but on what schedule would things start happening? You’d imagine that planning and procurement could take 2-5 years? In that time, you could acquire suitable new fleet relative to the projects’ needs. And I believe those ESL bulkers also have COAs (Contracts of Affreightment) in place, so the vessels are already in demand and releasing them might involve costs. I don’t want to completely dismiss the idea, because it requires assuming too many things. And there are other smaller ice-strengthened MPP or general cargo vessels out there… As for ESL, I think there are other potential buyers. There might be a couple of parties in the Netherlands, for example. And these are operators for whom continuing current operations would be a natural fit. So I don’t think it will go for next to nothing. That PANL case certainly piques curiosity about what it’s all about..

Acquisition interest in ESL might even rise as a result of the orange one’s fixations. Yesterday, I watched shipping and rare earth companies related to Greenland rise by double-digit “hype percentages.” The Greenland deal Trump squeezed out of Europe, its schedule, and terms are unclear, but the probability of seeing significant activity in Greenland in the coming years is quite high, especially due to rare earth metals and the Golden Dome. Several US shipping companies rose yesterday, such as Matson Inc slightly and Pangaea Logistics Solutions (PANL) more significantly; these have operated in the Arctic Ocean under Arctic conditions, and investors are clearly speculating that activity in the area will increase in the future. As a result of this thought experiment, ESL Shipping has become a degree more interesting to me in just a few days, as Aspo’s demerger approaches at the end of the year and the sale of ESL has been on the table. A buyer of ESL would acquire a whole fleet of Ice Class 1A cargo vessels at once. The likely construction of the Golden Dome and potential expanded mining operations in Greenland would offer long-term shipping contracts to US and perhaps also Canadian shipping companies, necessitating a significant and potentially rapid expansion of current Arctic fleets. As climate change melts ice on Arctic routes, such as the Polar Silk Road, acquiring a fleet like ESL’s would be a fast and efficient solution for increasing cargo capacity. If I further speculate irresponsibly about a potential buyer, it could be Pangaea Logistics Solutions, which has operated in Greenland and might, under optimal conditions (e.g., a preliminary agreement with the Trump administration), pay a +20-50% premium compared to a normal dry bulk shipping company (usually 5-12 x EBITA), because this involves a ready fleet suitable for Arctic regions. Thus, the minimum purchase price for ESL could be an average year’s EBITA of €23 million x 10-12, i.e., €230-276 million minus allocated debts (+ perhaps a premium on top if there is competition). It is also possible that a competing shipping company could be interested in the fleet if Denmark/Greenland and the USA reach a swift agreement and Trump’s plan actually begins to progress. The need for vessels operating in Arctic regions will likely rise in the coming years, so ESL probably won’t need to be sold at a discount. A recovering economy and heavily increasing Arctic shipping traffic could raise multiples even further, especially if the cycle takes a strong turn for the better. In an optimal case and what I consider a reasonable scenario, ESL’s purchase price could be 12-15x €25 million EBITA; i.e., EV €300-375 million minus debts. Strategically, ESL may be an extremely attractive acquisition target due to long-term US government contracts, giving the shipper who lands such a contract an incentive to secure sufficient Ice Class 1A fleet on a fast schedule. I have full confidence in Aspo’s management to achieve an optimal solution for the shareholder (the sale of ESL or a demerger). There is also no rush for a deal, as the situation is developing in the right direction. Irresponsible speculation ends.

Aspo’s CEO will also become the CEO of Telko. It sounds like a strategic reorganization is approaching fast.  Aspo announced in November 2025 that it would continue evaluating the company’s strategic options, with the primary options being a potential partial demerger of Aspo or the sale of ESL Shipping. A change is occurring in Aspo’s Group Management Team as a result of an agreement that Mikko Pasanen, CEO of Telko, will leave his position. Aspo’s CEO Rolf Jansson has been appointed CEO of Telko as of January 23, 2026. ”Under Mikko Pasanen’s leadership, Telko has grown in Western markets in recent years, both organically and through acquisitions. I want to thank Mikko for his significant contribution and wish him all the best for the future. In the near future, we will continue to focus particularly on serving our partners, further developing Telko’s investment story and profitability, and evaluating the integration of Telko’s and Aspo’s operations. Telko is excellently positioned to develop into an independent, growth-oriented listed company,” says Rolf Jansson, CEO of Aspo.  Change in Aspo’s Management Team - Inderes

Arvopaperi published a list yesterday of Helsinki Stock Exchange companies popular among insiders in 2025. Aspo ranked fourth on the list, based on the total net value of acquisitions and disposals (€319,340). Ahead of it were Nokia, Tokmanni, and Kamux. List of Helsinki Stock Exchange companies where insiders are buying shares in bulk | Arvopaperi

Thank you for the very comprehensive answer! The demerger seems like a very good decision considering all factors, and as the dividend matter shows, compromises have certainly had to be made over the years. Selling ESL would be quite a jackpot for shareholders, not only in terms of price but also regarding the timeline for the undervaluation to be resolved. Unfortunately, as a layman, it is impossible to estimate the probability of that sale. Personally, I have woken up to this special situation a bit late, as there has no longer been the same kind of margin of safety available in the share price since the turn of the year as there was before. I will have to keep an eye on the situation and study the topic further.

I don’t see this as a major problem anymore, as the sale of Leipurin clearly strengthens the balance sheet. In principle, ESL finances its own operations, so according to comments from Aspo’s management, the remaining debts and assets would go to Telko in the event of a potential demerger.  This is a very relevant question. In addition to group costs, concrete benefits can come from more flexible capital allocation, as segments will no longer have to compete for capital in the future. Previously, major policy decisions were made at the parent company level. However, it is true that the closing of any potential valuation gap may take time, especially for ESL, as current investment programs will only be completed during 2028, and their impact on results will be visible from 2029. Nevertheless, a clearer reporting structure, strategy, and a more suitable shareholder base are factors that, in my estimation, should fundamentally have a positive impact on the business’s share price.  In the sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) analysis of the latest report, ESL’s enterprise value is 250 MEUR and Telko’s is about 220 MEUR. These are based on estimates as separate listed companies. If ESL were sold outside the group, the value would likely be higher (it makes no sense to sell for less). The key questions are 1) ESL’s normalized earnings power and 2) the required rate of return for the business. Of these, the required return specifically can swing the value significantly if a buyer views ESL more as an infrastructure investment and is thus ready to accept a lower return requirement than the stock market. Of course, there is also considerable uncertainty in estimating earnings levels, as there is with forecasts in general.  Aspo’s policy is still to distribute at most 50% of the net profit for the financial year. According to my own forecasts (2025e: dividend per share €0.26), the total dividend would be about 8 MEUR. Thanks to the strengthened balance sheet, this would not cause problems. Whether the dividend distribution is sensible is another question. After the demerger (one way or another), I hope that the dividend policy will be adjusted to match the businesses’ value creation opportunities and investment needs. The current model can be seen as a kind of compromise.

Aspo

On Wednesday, Aspo published a Q3 result that was stronger than we expected. We have raised our earnings estimates for the next few years, as the report improved visibility of Telko's profitability...

<p>On Wednesday, Aspo published a Q3 result that was stronger than we expected. We have raised our earnings estimates for the next few years, as the report improved visibility of Telko's profitability level adjusted for Russian operations. Moreover, completed acquisitions will increase earnings in the next few years. Although the valuation is low in absolute terms, we are still cautious especially due to the significant uncertainty related to ESL’s performance. </p> 

	2021	22e	23e
Revenue	573.3	629.6	586.5
growth-%	14.5 %	9.8 %	-6.8 %
EBIT (adj.)	42.4	54.4	40.8
EBIT-% (adj.)	7.4 %	8.6 %	7.0 %
EPS (adj.)	1.02	1.33	0.93
Dividend	0.45	0.46	0.47
Dividend %	4.0 %	6.1 %	6.2 %
P/E (adj.)	11.1	5.7	8.2
EV/EBITDA	8.6	6.8	5.7

Aspo: Performance was wild, but future is worrisome

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Key Estimate Figures02.11.2022

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