Translation: Original published in Finnish on 8/26/2026 at 7:00 am EEST.

We reiterate our Accumulate recommendation, but lower our target price to EUR 7.0 (was EUR 8.5) on the back of decreased estimates. Canatu's long-term growth story remains attractive, and the new reactor order from FST confirms our view that Canatu's technology is in a strong position in the emerging CNT pellicle market. However, the H1 figures were very weak compared to expectations, and the weak outlook for the full year 2026 practically means kicking the growth can down the road for the second year in a row. Investor disappointment is reflected in the fallen share price, and in our view, Canatu's current enterprise value (2026e 144 MEUR) is low relative to the company's potential if the updated strategy succeeds. Therefore, we still see the risk/reward ratio as sufficient, but a sustained share price increase will likely require concrete evidence of scalable growth in the coming years. 

Very weak H1 figures

In line with the preliminary information provided on Monday, Canatu’s H1 revenue decreased by 43% to 4.2 MEUR, driven particularly by the collapse of the semiconductor sector (0.4 MEUR vs. 5.7 MEUR). This was clearly below our forecast of 8.5 MEUR, which is particularly reflected in the sharp decline in sales of inspection membranes as a major customer digests its inventories (the products have proven more durable than expected). Canatu’s H1 EBITDA decreased significantly year-on-year and was -11.4 MEUR. This was clearly below our forecast of -6.9 MEUR and is largely explained by revenue falling short of expectations.

Estimates for coming years decreased significantly

In connection with the new reactor order announced on Monday, Canatu already provided an updated outlook for 2026. According to the company, revenue in 2026 will decline significantly from the 2025 level (15.6 MEUR). This was a clear disappointment compared to our expectations, as we had previously forecast a revenue of 21.8 MEUR for the current year (now 9.6 MEUR). In the next few years, the key aspect for Canatu's growth will be the progress of the semiconductor sector's reactor business. According to the company, negotiations with new reactor customers have progressed, but at this stage, external visibility into new commercial breakthroughs is weak. In our view, the order for a second reactor received from FST on Monday confirms that Canatu's technology works and that FST is preparing for growing volume deliveries to its end customers in the coming years. The next steps toward mass production are the product approvals of FST's end customers (based on public sources, e.g., Samsung) in pilot and risk production. Therefore, the timeline on which Canatu will start generating recurring revenue from these two reactors is beyond the company's control. The customer acceptance process for the second reactor customer is still ongoing. The company was relatively tight-lipped about the situation, but it would seem that the delay is more dependent on the customer than on Canatu.

Long-term potential still alive

The declining revenue and missing growth targets in 2025–2026 have taken a clear toll on Canatu's growth story, which has been strongly reflected in the declining share price and forecasts. Despite the decline in the share price, Canatu's valuation (2026e EV/S 15x) has priced in expectations of strong scalable growth, for which we believe the still credible long-term growth story provides grounds. The company's reactor business is progressing in the right direction, of which FST's new reactor order is a concrete and important indication.  This creates a foundation for gradually accelerating and strong earnings growth in the coming years. Should this materialize, the share’s valuation (2030e EV/S ~2x and EV/EBIT ~8x) will become attractive, and the growth outlook would presumably remain strong even after that. Through scenarios modeling growth and profitability at different rates, we have estimated a wide value range of some EUR 3-14 for Canatu, which partly reflects the risks and opportunities associated with the company.