Translation: Original published in Finnish on 8/6/2026 at 8:22 pm EEST.

Although the company's Q2 figures were disappointing, significant progress in fundraising offset this setback. Due to the successful fundraising, the risk to earnings growth in the coming years has decreased, and our earnings growth estimates have remained virtually unchanged. If earnings growth materializes, the stock is cheap, but without it, it is fairly valued. We reiterate our EUR 2.1 target price for CapMan but raise our recommendation to Buy (previously Accumulate), as successful fundraising makes the risk/reward ratio more attractive to us than before.

Lackluster figures balanced out by new sales

CapMan's Q2 figures were a clear disappointment in all respects. Revenue fell well short of estimates due to low transaction fees and zero carried interest. Earnings significantly missed expectations due to soft revenue and weaker-than-expected investment income. Fee profit in Q2 was also at a modest level and much weaker than estimated.

The most important individual item in the report was new sales, which performed excellently during the quarter and showed significant growth. During the review period, the company completed the first closings of two flagship funds (NRE4 and Infra3), and, additionally, the second closing of the forest flagship fund. The notable successes in new sales clearly decrease the risk associated with the fundraising cycle. The outlook contained no surprises, and the company's comments were again very positive, with the company expecting to complete all key fundraising in 2027. In addition, the company again emphasized the scalability of costs as growth materializes.

Improving earnings relies on successful fundraising

We made hardly any changes to our estimates after the Q2 report. We continue to expect the company's earnings to improve significantly over the next two years. This earnings improvement is driven by the company's largest capital raise in its history, which appears more likely to succeed after a strong Q2. As growth materializes, fee profit should scale up significantly, and we estimate a clear upward adjustment in fee profit from its current modest level. In addition to successful new sales, the company also needs strong cost control to properly scale fee profit. Earnings growth is accelerated not only by fee profit but also by carried interest, which has been at a gloomy level in recent years due to the sluggish exit market. Now, several significant funds are expected to enter into carry during 2026–2027, and the company itself stated that it expects carried interest already for the end of the year. Our forecasts show a significant improvement in the earnings mix as the share of fee profit increases. This is important to CapMan because it supports an acceptable valuation as business predictability improves. According to our calculations, CapMan’s cash flow will exceed its earnings in the coming years due to capital released from the balance sheet, which will increase the company’s flexibility in terms of capital allocation. We expect the company to continue its generous dividend policy. It also remains actively on the lookout for acquisition targets to accelerate its growth strategy.

Valuation is cheap if earnings growth materializes

In our view, the sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) approach is clearly the best way to value CapMan because it most accurately reflects the individual parts' different profiles. The total value of the SOTP is EUR 2.1 per share. This calculation is based on the assumption that fee profit will significantly improve in the coming years. If fee profit were to remain at the current level, the fair value of the share would be below the current share price. Relative and absolute valuation multiples also support this view. Without clear growth in fee profit, there is no upside to the stock, and, should our forecasts materialize, the stock would be cheap. The expected return on the stock is primarily based on earnings growth but is also supported by a strong dividend yield.