Enersense Q4'25: Towards earnings growth after clearing the deck

Translation: Original published in Finnish on 02/13/2026 at 08:00 am EET

In Q4, Enersense's operational result for its core businesses fell short of our expectations, but did strengthen from the comparison period. However, numerous non-recurring items related to Enersense's strategic focus stole the spotlight in terms of figures. In contrast, the guidance for this year was very much in line with our expectations, and as a result, estimate changes remained minor. We estimate that the expected return based on earnings growth in the coming years will remain at a very attractive level. Against this backdrop, we reiterate our Buy recommendation and EUR 5.2 target price.

A quarter colored by non-recurring items

Enersense's adjusted EBITDA for its core businesses amounted to 4.2 MEUR in Q4, falling slightly short of our 5.0 MEUR estimate. However, the company's earnings improved from the comparison period (Q4’24: 3.1 MEUR). Correspondingly, reported earnings were weighed down by 6.4 MEUR in costs related to Enersense'sstrategic focusing and restructuring. These included, e.g., shutdown costs and write-downs of non-core operations, as well as investments in the Value Uplift program. Also, in the lower lines, financial expenses were increased by 7.6 MEUR in write-downs. The most significant of these related to shares in P2X Solutions Oy and claims related to the wind power project portfolio sold to Fortum. We believe that with the write-downs now made, the historical burden should have significantly lightened, although the company will still record certain expenses affecting comparability related to Value Uplift and IT reforms (incl. the ERP project). We commented on the result when it was first published here.

Minor estimate changes

In its guidance for 2026, Enersense estimates its adjusted EBITDA to be 19-23 MEUR (2025: 18.8 MEUR). The company, however, expected the market situation to remain good in all key strategic market segments. Among the business units, Power, quite unsurprisingly, has the strongest demand situation, driven by the construction needs of energy infrastructure. The company also reported progress on its Value Uplift efficiency program, achieving an annual EBIT/EBITDA run-rate improvement of 6.7 MEUR by the end of Q4, instead of the previously targeted 5 MEUR. As a result, it also raised its overall target to 7.5 MEUR (was 6.5 MEUR) by the end of H1’26.

With the report, we slightly lowered our growth estimates for the coming years (-2%), while our margin estimates remained practically unchanged. We estimate that revenue growth, strategic measures, and Value Uplift will support the company's earnings improvement. We now expect adjusted EBITDA to rise to 21.8 MEUR this year (was 22.0 MEUR). We expect operational earnings growth to continue at a double-digit level in 2027-2028 (adj. EBIT growth %: 11-14% per year), supported by growth driven by favorable market outlooks and a slight margin improvement.

We find the valuation very attractive

With our updated estimates, we consider this year's EV-based multiples (hybrid loan accounted for as debt) quite moderate (2026e EV/EBIT 7x, EV/EBITDA 4x) and below the levels we find neutral (EV/EBIT 8x-12x, EV/EBITDA 5x-7x). We feel that the stock's current valuation is weighed down, partly justifiably, by several recent non-recurring items related to restructuring and strategy, which have led to very volatile reported earnings development for the company. At the same time, this has partly overshadowed the measures taken on the operational side. However, as the earnings turnaround progresses as expected and non-recurring items decrease, we see clear upside drivers for the valuation. Our strong positive view on the share is also supported by the other methods we use (e.g., DCF ~EUR 5.9/share).