Translation: Original published in Finnish on 2/9/2026 at 7:50 am EET.

Exel Composites will publish its Q4 results on Friday, February 13. We expect the company to report record orders for Q4, supported by significant framework agreements. We also expect the operating result to have reached a good level, supported by accelerating deliveries and operating model reforms. With a significantly increased order book, we believe the company is well-positioned to transition into the growth phase of its strategy, and this development has strengthened our confidence in our robust growth forecasts. The positive news flow has also been reflected in the share price, which has risen by some 40% since our previous update. With the recent share price increase, we believe the stock's valuation is neutral in relation to the strengthened growth outlook and the early-stage growth turnaround. Thus, we lower our recommendation to Reduce (previously Accumulate) but raise our target price to EUR 0.55 (previously EUR 0.45) due to a slight decrease in the required rate of return and positive long-term forecast changes. 

We expect record orders for Q4

Exel's starting point for Q4 was clearly better than the comparison period in terms of order backlog (Q3'25: 49 MEUR vs. Q3'24: 31 MEUR), although we estimate that the structure of the order backlog is structurally becoming longer than historically. We expect Q4 revenue to be 31.3 MEUR (+25% y/y). We expect timing-related factors to have supported growth as the company cleared deliveries that were postponed in previous quarters due to the transfer of production from Belgium to other factories. In connection with Q3, the company stated that the process was nearing completion, and we estimate that the transfers were largely completed in Q4. Correspondingly, due to growth and improved efficiency from changes in the operating model, we estimate the company's adjusted EBIT to have settled at 2.4 MEUR, which corresponds to a good margin of 7.6% compared to recent years. However, we estimate that the reported result was burdened by small one-off costs (0.3 MEUR) related to finalizing the production transfers. With a total of 47 MEUR in cable core agreements announced during the quarter, and generally good underlying demand, we estimate Exel's Q4 order intake to be very high and at a record level in the last decade.

We expect growth to accelerate this year

We have not made changes to our forecasts for the coming years. We expect Exel's revenue to grow by as much as 22% to 129 MEUR this year, supported by an improved market situation, new framework agreements, and larger wind power contracts (including the ramp-up of the Indian factory). We expect growth to also support the company's profitability development, driven by rising utilization rates, and we forecast Exel's adjusted EBIT to increase to 8.9 MEUR (2026e adj. EBIT-%: 6.9%). Thus, in our view, the company's guidance should indicate significant revenue growth and earnings growth or significant growth (however, there is uncertainty associated with the underlying assumptions of the verbal guidance). In turn, with the recent order development for conductor cores, we have slightly raised our forecasts for the end of the decade, as we estimate the company still has profitable long-term growth opportunities in energy infrastructure construction.

We believe the share is largely correctly priced

With our updated forecasts, the stock's valuation for this year is, in our opinion, at a neutral level (P/E 13x, EV/EBIT 10x) relative to our accepted valuation (P/E 10x-14x, EV/EBIT 8x-12x). At the same time, forecast risks remain elevated, especially regarding the larger ramp-up of volumes at the Indian factory and the factory's profitability development. In our view, this, coupled with the cash flow that has remained weak so far, limits the upside potential of the multiples before concrete evidence of earnings development (incl. cash flow). Looking at the overall picture, we believe the stock is currently largely correctly priced, which is also indicated by our DCF model, which is at the level of our target price.