contentSlug

type

ContentSlug_ContentQuery

slug

ContentPageContentQuery

content

trendingContent

query ContentSlug_ContentQuery(
  $contentSlug: String!
  $type: [ContentType!]
) {
  ...ContentPageContentQuery_13QmVO
}

fragment CompanyDetails_Content on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  companies {
    name
    description
    pageUrl
    id
  }
}

fragment ContentBasicInfo on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  id
  type
  title
  lang
  companies {
    viewerIsFollowing
    id
    name
    pageUrl
  }
  tags {
    viewerIsFollowing
    id
    name
    pageUrl
  }
  ...PublishingDetails
  ...Reactions
}

fragment ContentMetadata on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  type
  title
  lang
  pageUrl
  alternatePageUrls: translations {
    __typename
    pageUrl
    lang
  }
  imgUrl
  description
  ... on Video {
    liveTime
    videoUrl
  }
  ... on Webcast {
    liveTime
    videoUrl
  }
}

fragment ContentPageContentQuery_13QmVO on Query {
  content(slug: $contentSlug, type: $type) {
    __typename
    id
    type
    title
    isPremium
    lang
    htmlBody
    summary
    companies {
      forum {
        latestPosts {
          ...ForumPosts
        }
      }
      name
      id
      viewerIsFollowing
      pageUrl
      defaultInstrument {
        isin
        id
        marketOpen
        marketClose
        marketplace {
          region
        }
        returns {
          total
        }
      }
    }
    tags {
      viewerIsFollowing
      id
      name
      pageUrl
    }
    createdAt
    ... on Video {
      liveTime
    }
    ... on Webcast {
      liveTime
    }
    slug
    ... on CompanyReport {
      reportUrl
    }
    ... on ThirdPartyCompanyReport {
      reportUrl
    }
    ... on StockExchangeRelease {
      reportUrl
    }
    ...ContentBasicInfo
    ...ContentMetadata
    ...PriceAndRecommendation_Content
    ...CompanyDetails_Content
    ...ReportLink_Content
    ...KeyFigures_Content
  }
  ...TrendingContent_1jQ2Cn
}

fragment ForumPosts on ForumPost {
  text
  likesCount
  url
  author
  postedAt
  authorImgUrl
}

fragment KeyFigures_Content on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  companies {
    defaultInstrument {
      estimateData {
        modelType
        reportingCurrency
      }
      snapshot {
        transaction {
          date
          actualized {
            year
            quarter
            revenue
            revenueGrowth
            ebitAdjusted
            ebitReported
            ebitda
            enterpriseValue
            epsAdjusted
            dividend
            dividendYield
            sharePrice
            nav
            navPerShare
            opexOfNav
            quarterlySharePrice
          }
          estimates {
            year
            quarter
            revenue
            revenueGrowth
            ebitAdjusted
            ebitReported
            ebitda
            enterpriseValue
            epsAdjusted
            dividend
            dividendYield
            sharePrice
            nav
            navPerShare
            opexOfNav
            quarterlySharePrice
          }
        }
      }
      id
    }
    id
  }
}

fragment PriceAndRecommendation_Content on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  createdAt
  companies {
    name
    pageUrl
    defaultInstrument {
      priceData {
        tradeCurrency
      }
      snapshot {
        priceData {
          date
          lastPrice
          tradeCurrency
        }
        transaction {
          date
          recommendation
          targetPrice
        }
        prevTransaction {
          recommendation
        }
      }
      id
    }
    id
  }
}

fragment PublishingDetails on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  createdAt
  publishers {
    name
    imgUrl
  }
  authors {
    __typename
    id
    name
    slug
    imgUrl
    jobTitle
  }
  ... on Video {
    liveTime
  }
  ... on Webcast {
    liveTime
  }
}

fragment Reactions on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  id
  reactionGroups {
    reactionType
    reactionsCount
    viewerReacted
  }
}

fragment ReportLink_Content on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  type
  isPremium
  ... on CompanyReport {
    reportUrl
  }
  ... on ThirdPartyCompanyReport {
    reportUrl
  }
  ... on StockExchangeRelease {
    reportUrl
  }
}

fragment TrendingContent_1jQ2Cn on Query {
  trendingContent(type: ARTICLE) {
    __typename
    id
    title
    lang
    pageUrl
    createdAt
    type
    imgUrl
    companies {
      squareLogoUrl
      name
      id
    }
    authors {
      __typename
      imgUrl
      id
    }
    publishers {
      imgUrl
    }
  }
}


__typename

title

isPremium

lang

htmlBody

summary

companies

createdAt

publishers

authors

reactionGroups

pageUrl

translations

imgUrl

description

Analyst

Juha Kinnunen

Fortum is active in the energy sector. In addition to the provision of electricity, a number of technical solutions are offered in heat optimization as well as apps that are used to keep track of energy consumption. The company also provides charging stations for electric cars. The largest activity is found around the Nordic market. The company was founded in 1998 and is headquartered in Espoo.

I won’t take a stand on building additional nuclear power, but these occasional demand and price peaks stretched out a bit longer in January and February. Below I’ve included the graphs for Finland’s consumption and production from Fingrid’s website. February is on top and January is below. Consumption is in yellow and production is in blue.   In months like these, we have a chronic shortage of baseload power production and, apart from occasional wind power production spikes, we were completely dependent on imported energy. Fortunately, there were no major problems on the production side or with transmission connections; for the most part, the system was fully operational during that period. Add to this the electricity supply needs of future data centers and green industry. With the energy solutions you presented, overproduction cannot be shifted to periods like these. Filling the reserves is done with purchased energy.

The nominee-registered holding seems to be growing. Kudos to Anttonen for taking a view—another 540,761 shares added to the portfolio! This is how it’s done when joining a board. Put your skin in the game.

Nuclear plant in Sweden down for 3 months. Affects results too; roughly an extra ~month of downtime and an impact of €11M/week, Fortum’s share is just under half → approx. €22M: https://x.com/Claes_Hemberg/status/2026254509140303983

Investments in Russia and other emerging markets always carry more than the usual amount of risk related to politics, currencies, legal systems, and so on. At least for me, a very boring Fortum operating only in the Nordic countries would have been fine, but I did own a certain amount of Fortum back then too. The buildup of Russian troops around Ukraine increased the risk even further without it being significantly reflected in Fortum’s share price. After thinking about it for a couple of days, I sold my Fortum shares before the invasion because of two different scenarios:  I felt I could get roughly the same return elsewhere without the risk associated with losing Fortum’s Russian investments. The probability of the risk was perhaps moderate, but if it occurred, the impact would be huge, making even a seemingly small risk quite large. I figured that the further Russia’s posturing and provocation progressed, the more downward pressure there would be on Fortum’s stock, giving me an opportunity to buy the same shares back cheaper if I felt like it.  (In the past, I traveled in Russia quite a bit and met many wonderful people there. However, after the annexation of Crimea, I decided I wouldn’t go to Russia again, at least until Crimea has been returned to Ukraine.)

My own view: I bought Fortum during the spring 2020 COVID crash and sold those lots a couple of years later at prices above 20 euros, when the reality regarding Russia hit home. For me, the investment case was the low price, which I could fully justify based on Fortum’s Nordic holdings alone. The risky Russia position and the Uniper bet appeared to me as smart opportunistic possibilities. Not all bets pay off – but why dwell on it any further! Now I have a small Fortum position with an average price of 12 euros – if there’s anything to regret here, it’s the small size of the position given the current valuation.

why the reaction of owners/investors to the biggest losses in Finnish history was quite “meh”  Fortum’s activities were indeed quite lacking in stewardship  I reckon that many of the seniors and active members of this thread and forum take a rather stoic approach to these investment matters. Measured in euros, the case was a record, but there probably isn’t any more of an emotional bond than there is with other investment targets on average. The most heated discussions are usually held where emotions have built up over a longer period (Nokia!) or hype has made tempers flare (hydrogen cars, donut lab and many others). The real question is, why doesn’t the system change after these cases? The state picture tube factory, UMTS deals, Fortum, Caruna, and many other examples argue for a significantly less active role in business for politicians and civil servants.

I, on the other hand, got the impression that politicians felt the opposite “pressure,” meaning the deal was supposedly approved via text message from someone’s vacation? And it seems “responsibility” was shifted once, so politicians weren’t interested. But I don’t know if that’s just a legend. It hasn’t been reported anywhere that politicians requested more information or a more detailed analysis of whether the deal made sense, even though the state, as a major shareholder, should have been particularly interested in one of Finland’s largest deals (was it perhaps even the largest?).

Fortum

Q3 results exceeded our expectations, but a sharp decline in electricity futures (over 20%) weighed on earnings forecasts for the coming years (around -15%) despite the company’s operationally good performance. Still, Fortum is able to maintain a good earnings level especially with hydropower, and as society becomes more electrified, we believe the demand outlook supports even higher electricity prices in the future.

<p>Q3 results exceeded our expectations, but a sharp decline in electricity futures (over 20%) weighed on earnings forecasts for the coming years (around -15%) despite the company’s operationally good performance. Still, Fortum is able to maintain a good earnings level especially with hydropower, and as society becomes more electrified, we believe the demand outlook supports even higher electricity prices in the future. We believe the stock is cheap (2024e P/E 11x) and underpriced also relative to peers. </p> 

	2022	23e	24e
Revenue	7,754.0	6,555.0	5,763.6
growth-%	20.7 %	-15.5 %	-12.1 %
EBIT (adj.)	1,611.0	1,594.9	1,320.7
EBIT-% (adj.)	20.8 %	24.3 %	22.9 %
EPS (adj.)	2.00	1.46	1.13
Dividend	0.91	1.00	1.00
Dividend %	5.9 %	5.1 %	5.1 %
P/E (adj.)	7.8	13.5	17.5
EV/EBITDA	7.0	8.7	10.4

Fortum: Good results with hydropower

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Key Estimate Figures03.11.2023

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