contentSlug

type

ContentSlug_ContentQuery

slug

ContentPageContentQuery

content

trendingContent

query ContentSlug_ContentQuery(
  $contentSlug: String!
  $type: [ContentType!]
) {
  ...ContentPageContentQuery_13QmVO
}

fragment CompanyDetails_Content on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  companies {
    name
    description
    pageUrl
    id
  }
}

fragment ContentBasicInfo on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  id
  type
  title
  lang
  companies {
    viewerIsFollowing
    id
    name
    pageUrl
  }
  tags {
    viewerIsFollowing
    id
    name
    pageUrl
  }
  ...PublishingDetails
  ...Reactions
}

fragment ContentMetadata on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  type
  title
  lang
  pageUrl
  alternatePageUrls: translations {
    __typename
    pageUrl
    lang
  }
  imgUrl
  description
  ... on Video {
    liveTime
    videoUrl
  }
  ... on Webcast {
    liveTime
    videoUrl
  }
}

fragment ContentPageContentQuery_13QmVO on Query {
  content(slug: $contentSlug, type: $type) {
    __typename
    id
    type
    title
    isPremium
    lang
    htmlBody
    summary
    companies {
      forum {
        latestPosts {
          ...ForumPosts
        }
      }
      name
      id
      viewerIsFollowing
      pageUrl
      defaultInstrument {
        isin
        id
        marketOpen
        marketClose
        marketplace {
          region
        }
        returns {
          total
        }
      }
    }
    tags {
      viewerIsFollowing
      id
      name
      pageUrl
    }
    createdAt
    ... on Video {
      liveTime
    }
    ... on Webcast {
      liveTime
    }
    slug
    ... on CompanyReport {
      reportUrl
    }
    ... on ThirdPartyCompanyReport {
      reportUrl
    }
    ... on StockExchangeRelease {
      reportUrl
    }
    ...ContentBasicInfo
    ...ContentMetadata
    ...PriceAndRecommendation_Content
    ...CompanyDetails_Content
    ...ReportLink_Content
    ...KeyFigures_Content
  }
  ...TrendingContent_1jQ2Cn
}

fragment ForumPosts on ForumPost {
  text
  likesCount
  url
  author
  postedAt
  authorImgUrl
}

fragment KeyFigures_Content on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  companies {
    defaultInstrument {
      estimateData {
        modelType
        reportingCurrency
      }
      snapshot {
        transaction {
          date
          actualized {
            year
            quarter
            revenue
            revenueGrowth
            ebitAdjusted
            ebitReported
            ebitda
            enterpriseValue
            epsAdjusted
            dividend
            dividendYield
            sharePrice
            nav
            navPerShare
            opexOfNav
            quarterlySharePrice
          }
          estimates {
            year
            quarter
            revenue
            revenueGrowth
            ebitAdjusted
            ebitReported
            ebitda
            enterpriseValue
            epsAdjusted
            dividend
            dividendYield
            sharePrice
            nav
            navPerShare
            opexOfNav
            quarterlySharePrice
          }
        }
      }
      id
    }
    id
  }
}

fragment PriceAndRecommendation_Content on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  createdAt
  companies {
    name
    pageUrl
    defaultInstrument {
      priceData {
        tradeCurrency
      }
      snapshot {
        priceData {
          date
          lastPrice
          tradeCurrency
        }
        transaction {
          date
          recommendation
          targetPrice
        }
        prevTransaction {
          recommendation
        }
      }
      id
    }
    id
  }
}

fragment PublishingDetails on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  createdAt
  publishers {
    name
    imgUrl
  }
  authors {
    __typename
    id
    name
    slug
    imgUrl
    jobTitle
  }
  ... on Video {
    liveTime
  }
  ... on Webcast {
    liveTime
  }
}

fragment Reactions on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  id
  reactionGroups {
    reactionType
    reactionsCount
    viewerReacted
  }
}

fragment ReportLink_Content on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  type
  isPremium
  ... on CompanyReport {
    reportUrl
  }
  ... on ThirdPartyCompanyReport {
    reportUrl
  }
  ... on StockExchangeRelease {
    reportUrl
  }
}

fragment TrendingContent_1jQ2Cn on Query {
  trendingContent(type: ARTICLE) {
    __typename
    id
    title
    lang
    pageUrl
    createdAt
    type
    imgUrl
    companies {
      squareLogoUrl
      name
      id
    }
    authors {
      __typename
      imgUrl
      id
    }
    publishers {
      imgUrl
    }
  }
}


__typename

title

isPremium

lang

htmlBody

summary

companies

createdAt

publishers

authors

reactionGroups

pageUrl

translations

imgUrl

description

Analyst

Juha Kinnunen

Fortum is active in the energy sector. In addition to the provision of electricity, a number of technical solutions are offered in heat optimization as well as apps that are used to keep track of energy consumption. The company also provides charging stations for electric cars. The largest activity is found around the Nordic market. The company was founded in 1998 and is headquartered in Espoo.

OP’s senior analyst Henri Parkkinen has made a video about Fortum  Fortum’s comparable EBITDA in Q4 was clearly below consensus. In the conference call following the results, the company announced that the capacity it offered was not selected for the final rounds of the bidding process for PPA (Power Purchase Agreement) contracts for Microsoft’s data centers under construction in Finland. Investors were disappointed by the news and the company’s share price dropped on Tuesday. In the video, OP’s senior analyst Henri Parkkinen reviews the company’s Q4 results and data center updates.

Significantly more electricity was generated via hydropower in Sweden in January 2026 compared to the previous January in 2025. This can be verified, for example, here: eSett At the moment, the deficit is mainly in Norwegian snow levels, so the situation is very good for Fortum. The deficit pushes up electricity prices but does not affect production volumes. If February and March play out as currently predicted, the Q1-2026 result will be very high despite the €41/MWh and 75% hedges for 2026. This is due to high production volumes (hydropower and nuclear power) and very high prices for the unhedged portion. When production is high, more of it is sold at high spot prices. Furthermore, the optimization premium will be very high. In practice, this year’s dividend will be earned in the first quarter.

Juha pulled a target of 20€ and more out of his sleeve. Osuuspankki wasn’t in a positive mood: 15.5 and sell. I’m following instructions and doing nothing.

It’s worth remembering that approximately 67% of Fortum’s hydropower capacity is located in Sweden.

Based on my own observations at the grassroots level monitoring dam water flow over the past two summers, surface and groundwater levels are exceptionally low. The 24-25 winter had an incredibly low amount of snow, and the meltwater runoff was very minimal. There wasn’t any proper rainfall during the summer. Rainfall in the autumn of '25 was scarce (some wells even ran dry), and this 25-26 winter doesn’t look particularly promising in terms of snow either. According to official data, water levels in Lake Saimaa are 30 centimeters below the long-term average. All in all, water levels are low; this may or may not have an impact, depending on the specific body of water.

hydro-reservoir.eu              Finland Hydro reservoir levels                              There is nothing particularly unusual about Finland’s storage levels compared to last year. Currently, the low snow depth may affect spring levels, and that is perhaps why they are holding back in advance. In Sweden and Norway, levels are clearly lower than last year, and as a result, the capacity of the entire Nordic region is not at the same level as last year. Sweden produced much less hydroelectric power in January than last year. If someone wants to check the snow depth in the Swedish fells compared to last year, they could eventually conclude how high prices will stay through the spring—depending, of course, on wind conditions as well.

Is there a way to conveniently track the water levels of hydroelectric power plants? I’m wondering, given this continuous extreme cold, whether the reservoirs are already empty or if there’s still enough water. It’s possible that January/February this year will yield quite a good result, even though a large part of production is locked in at a fairly low price.

Fortum

Russia's extensive attack on Ukraine dramatically changed Fortum’s operating environment and previously extremely unlikely scenarios have become possible. Our ability to assess the likelihood...

<p>Russia's extensive attack on Ukraine dramatically changed Fortum’s operating environment and previously extremely unlikely scenarios have become possible. Our ability to assess the likelihood of various risks is weak and uncertainty is extremely high. However, in the current situation, Fortum’s high Russia risk is not attractive, and Russia's counter-sanctions in particular can be very harmful. A lot of negatives are already priced into the share at the current level, but we remain cautious before the company's financial report. </p> 

	2020	21e	22e
Revenue	49,015.0	130,226.0	132,222.0
growth-%	799.9 %	165.7 %	1.5 %
EBIT (adj.)	1,344.0	2,435.0	2,078.6
EBIT-% (adj.)	2.7 %	1.9 %	1.6 %
EPS (adj.)	1.67	1.48	1.55
Dividend	1.12	1.14	1.14
Dividend %	5.7 %	5.8 %	5.8 %
P/E (adj.)	11.8	13.4	12.7
EV/EBITDA	9.5	38.3	7.6

Fortum: Russia, Russia, Russia

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Key Estimate Figures28.02.2022

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