In connection with GreenMobility’s Q3 2026 trading statement and the strategic developments since the summer, we have updated our investment case. 

Q3 answered the question that has defined the year. Revenue grew 9% to DKK 44.5m after a Q2 that was close to flat, and EBITDA grew 12% to DKK 19.0m, lifting the quarterly margin to 42.6% from 41.5%. Over the first nine months, revenue is up 6% to DKK 121.7m and EBITDA up 16% to DKK 47.8m, with the margin at 39.2% against 35.7% a year earlier. The re-acceleration came as the expanded fleet was in operation for the full quarter, although the trading statement does not break down the split between fleet, demand and utilisation per car.

The guidance for the year is maintained at 5-9% revenue growth and 12-16% EBITDA growth. With nine months delivered and EBITDA up 16%, the earnings range looks well covered, while the revenue range remains open. The maintained guidance leaves implied Q4 revenue growth of roughly 3% to 19% on our calculation.

The funding side of the case has become more concrete. The fleet expansion of 185 vehicles (DKK 30m) is fully lease-financed with no upfront payment, and in August GreenMobility signed a multi-year agreement with EDF, which will install, own and operate up to 204 charging points across up to 55 locations in Copenhagen and carries the full investment and operating cost. Taken together, the current growth strategy and the 2028 financial targets appear financeable within the existing capital structure. Excess cash is meanwhile being returned through two buyback programmes of up to DKK 6m and DKK 5m, the latter running from 9 October to 31 December. 

The quarter also brought the clearest step yet on the fourth strategic pillar. In August, GreenMobility signed a strategic partnership with WeRide to deploy autonomous mobility in Denmark, targeting public service in H1 2027 using WeRide’s EU-compliant GXR, with the project developed alongside Vejdirektoratet and Færdselsstyrelsen and subject to regulatory approval. WeRide expands through local operating partners, the same template it uses elsewhere, and GreenMobility supplies exactly what that model requires: fleet operations, a customer base and trip data. In September, management set out the commercial reasoning in more detail, estimating a serviceable market of at least DKK 8bn with autonomous vehicles, spanning private and public demand, and pointing to unit economics where the current fleet runs 3 to 6 trips per day against 22 to 26 for autonomous vehicles operating elsewhere. It should be noted that no financial terms have been disclosed, that no capex, revenue or cost effects have been quantified, and that the 2028 financial targets rest on the existing car-sharing business. Autonomy therefore remains optionality beyond 2028 rather than a driver of the targets. 

Our investment case covers the key investment reasons and risks as well as valuation perspectives.

The key investment reasons center on GreenMobility tapping into a growing market of car sharing and the much larger rental market with a superior business model, profitability and cash returns continuing to be proven with nine-month EBITDA growth of 16% and growth back to 9% in Q3, a 2026-2028 growth strategy supported by strong counterparties within the existing capital structure, and optionality after 2028 that now has a named partner, a vehicle and a date.

The key risks are led by increased competition in the Copenhagen taxi market, where new supply is expected in the later part of 2026, potentially meaning a period with discounts. The demand impact is not yet quantifiable. In the long run a driverless business model is superior to taxi, and GreenMobility’s dominant position makes new entrants in car sharing less likely. The guidance carries execution risk in Q4, as the range is maintained rather than narrowed with nine months delivered. The autonomous rollout depends on regulatory approval and partner execution, price fluctuations on EVs create a risk of losses on the fleet, mitigated by an aggressive depreciation profile and expansion into more models, and political shifts on reserved parking spaces cannot be ruled out.

From a valuation perspective, based on the midpoint of 2026 guidance, GreenMobility trades at EV/Sales of 2.8x and EV/EBITDA of 7.4x against peer medians of 1.8x and 8.1x, a premium on sales multiples and a discount on earnings multiples. With an EBITDA margin of 37.4% against a peer median of 20.4%, a premium on sales multiples is to be expected, even with growth guided below peers. 

The picture changes in 2028. On the midpoint of the financial targets, the EV/Sales premium compresses to 2.3x against 1.3x, while the EV/EBITDA discount closes entirely at 5.7x for both. Lime has been added to the peer group following its Nasdaq IPO on 1 July 2026, which lifts both peer growth and peer margins.

P/E based on 2025 realized results (EPS DKK 5.91) is approximately 11x, or approximately 19x adjusted for the one-time effect from the deferred tax asset. The 2025 realized free cash flow gives a cash flow yield of approximately 4% on the current market cap, and free cash flow of DKK 7.1m in H1 2026 against DKK 4.5m points to a higher yield in 2026. After a share price decline of 49.9% year to date, the LTM EV/Sales multiple is back at its own three-year median. 

For more details on the quarter, you can watch our Q3 2026 event with the company’s management: https://www.inderes.dk/videos/greenmobility-presentation-of-the-q3-2026-trading-statement

Disclaimer: HC Andersen Capital receives payment for a Digital IR subscription agreement. CEO of HC Andersen Capital, Tue Østergaard, owns shares and is the Chairman of the Board of GreenMobility. /Michael Friis Jørgensen and Victor Skriver, 08:00, 15/10-2026.