GRK Q4'25: Growth sprint exhausted for now

Translation: Original published in Finnish on 2/13/2026 at 7:50 am EET.

GRK's profitability in Q4 was below our estimates, although the guidance for 2026 was quite well in line with our expectations. Demand prospects remain positive in the company's end markets, and market growth is expected to be strong this year, especially in Sweden. To achieve its updated revenue target of over 950 MEUR by 2028, we believe the company must also pursue growth through acquisitions. This need is particularly acute given that the completion of the Stegra project will create a significant revenue gap starting this year. Thus, successful capital allocation will be crucial for the company's future value creation. As our estimates remain largely unchanged, we maintain our Accumulate recommendation for GRK and our target price at EUR 14.5. 

Profitability was weaker than we expected

GRK's revenue decreased by 2% year-on-year in the final quarter to 209 MEUR. This was slightly above our forecast of 196 MEUR. Revenue development was stronger than our forecasts, especially in Sweden, which we believe was influenced by the significant Stegra project. Despite revenue exceeding our expectations, the company's result fell short of our forecasts, with adjusted EBIT at 9.7 MEUR (forecast 13.4 MEUR). The typical seasonality of GRK's business impacted the quarterly earnings more significantly than we expected. Working capital continued to develop very favorably in Q4, resulting in cash flow that clearly exceeded accumulated earnings. Advances received were at a very high level of 176 MEUR at the end of the year. GRK's order book stood at 723 MEUR at the end of the year, falling short of the 846 MEUR from the comparison period, as expected. However, the order book level slightly exceeded our forecast. In addition, the company has a significant number of won projects outside its order book.

Guidance and outlook in line with our expectations

GRK issued its guidance for the current year and expects revenue to be 720-870 MEUR and adjusted EBIT to be 45-60 MEUR. We have not made significant changes to our estimates, as our previous estimates were well within the guidance range. We expect work on the Stegra project to be at a lower level than in the previous year, which will weigh on revenue. On the other hand, we expect revenue to remain strong, supported by the company's order book, projects in the development phase, and positive market outlook, especially in Sweden.

The market outlook in the company's target countries remains generally positive. In Sweden, in particular, total infrastructure investments are expected to grow strongly, by around 8% during the current year. In Finland, the market is also expected to continue growing, albeit slightly slower than in 2025. Growth in both Finland and Sweden is driven by the energy transition, security, and transport infrastructure investments.

The company updated its financial targets for revenue in connection with the results and is now targeting revenue of over 950 MEUR by the end of 2028 (was 750 MEUR). We are also keeping our forecasts for the coming years unchanged at this stage. In our view, achieving the target requires not only organic growth but also acquisitions, which we do not include in our forecasts.

Expected return is rather attractive

Based on our GRK forecasts, the P/E ratios for 2026-2027 are around 13x and 14x. The EV/EBIT multiples, accounting for the oversized cash position, are 7x and 8x, even though we have modeled a significant working capital tie-up for the company in 2026. The acceptable valuation level for GRK's stock is approximately 11x-14x in terms of P/E ratio and 9x-12x in terms of EV/EBIT ratio. We thus see upside potential in GRK's valuation multiples, which, together with a dividend yield of approximately 4-5%, raises the expected return quite clearly above the required return.