HomeMaid Q1'26 preview: Market strength warrants upward revision

HomeMaid will publish its Q1 report on Monday, May 18, 2026. We expect a solid start to the year with revenue growth of 28%, driven primarily by acquisitions but also supported by a resilient RUT market that continued to defy softer household sentiment during Q1. Ahead of the report, we nudge our B2C organic growth estimate upward to reflect the strong momentum in the underlying RUT* market and HomeMaid's historically close correlation to it. We have also incorporated the recently announced bolt-on acquisition of Wikk AB into our estimates. Our margin assumptions remain unchanged, as we continue to expect year-on-year pressure from mix effects following the Rimab consolidation, ongoing normalization of staff utilization, and elevated marketing spend. The combined estimate revisions had only a minor positive impact on our fair value, and we view the current valuation as keeping the risk/reward attractive, especially considering the M&A optionality that we see in the investment case. Given this, and following our estimate revisions, we maintain our Accumulate recommendation while increasing our target price to SEK 38 (was SEK 37).

28% growth expected with seasonal dip

We forecast Q1 revenue of 165 MSEK (was 162 MSEK), representing 28% year-on-year growth, of which 6% organic. Relative to Q4, this represents a 6% decline, as Q1 is seasonally smaller due to reduced consumer spending and slower household routines following the holiday period. The RUT deduction market grew 7% during Q1 (R12: 7%), with home cleaning services growing slightly faster at 9% (R12: 8%). Against this backdrop, we expect the B2C segment to grow 7% y/y (was 3%) to 99 MSEK. We have also slightly inched our organic estimates for Q2/Q3 upwards. For the legacy B2B segment, where we expect 2% organic growth, we believe the picture is more mixed, as it balances a gradually improving economy with recent geopolitical turbulence. For Q1, we expect EBITA to land at 12 MSEK (Q1’25: 10 MSEK), representing a margin of 7.4% (8.2%). We expect the year-on-year margin compression to primarily reflect the consolidation of Rimab, which carries a structurally lower margin profile, but also continued normalization of staff utilization following the recruitment and training of new personnel in late 2025, as well as elevated marketing spend. 

Closing the gap to RUT growth despite geopolitical uncertainty

While our organic revision ahead of the Q1 report is made against a tough comparison period (B2C grew 11% in Q1'25), we believe three factors support this. First, HomeMaid has historically tracked the underlying RUT market closely, making our previous ~6 pp gap to actual market growth difficult to justify on company-specific grounds. Second, the intensified marketing initiatives launched in late 2025 should allow the company to defend its market share better. Third, we believe the March acceleration in the RUT market points to strengthening demand through the quarter rather than a one-off pull-forward, consistent with growing customer intake. However, the macro backdrop remains a source of uncertainty, in our view, with soft household confidence, rising inflation expectations, and an interest rate narrative that has shifted from rate cuts/stable rates to renewed upside risk following the US-Iran conflict. The recently announced Wikk acquisition (~15 MSEK in annual revenue, at ~0.2x EV/Sales) further supports our estimates and, combined with our organic revisions, lifts our 2026 revenue by ~2% to 691 MSEK (17% y/y) with a follow-through to outer years, while margins are held largely unchanged.

Fair valuation on a standalone basis, M&A optionality adds upside

On our revised estimates, HomeMaid trades at 2026e adjusted EV/EBITA of 12x and P/E of 15x, which we view as fairly valued on stand-alone fundamentals, especially those based on EV, relative to our acceptable range (EV/EBITA 9x-12x, P/E 11x14x). While we see limited upside from earnings multiple expansion on a fully organic basis, we believe the current valuation is attractive when adding the M&A optionality we have included in our framework. Despite some minor near-term margin pressures, we view the combination of fair standalone valuation, expected earnings growth (FY26e: 12%), attractive dividend yield (FY26e: ~5%), and M&A optionality as supporting an attractive risk/reward profile at current levels.