HomeMaid will publish its Q2 report on Friday, August 21, 2026. Ahead of the report, we expect the strong momentum from the start of the year to continue, with double-digit revenue growth driven primarily by acquisitions but also supported by a strong RUT* market that keeps defying a continued subdued household sentiment. As in our Q1 preview, we again nudge our B2C organic growth estimates upward to reflect this momentum and HomeMaid's historically close correlation to the RUT market, and we have also incorporated the late-May Green Clean bolt-on. Our margin assumptions remain, however, largely unchanged. The combined revisions lift our 2026 revenue by ~1% and earnings by some 2% with follow-through to the outer years, and had a small positive impact on our fair value. With the share price having drifted lower and our estimates moved higher, we find the risk/reward increasingly attractive, especially considering the M&A optionality in the investment case. Accordingly, we upgrade our recommendation to Buy (was Accumulate) and raise our target price to SEK 39 (was SEK 38).

Double-digit growth expected, aided by acquisitions

We forecast Q2 revenue of 182 MSEK (was 178 MSEK), representing ~34% year-on-year growth, of which ~9% organic. The RUT deduction market accelerated in Q2, growing by 11% year-on-year (Q1’26: 7%) and has continued to grow at a high-single-digit pace in July, resulting in a strong trailing twelve-month growth of 8%. Against this backdrop, we lift our B2C segment growth to ~12% year-on-year (was ~7%) for Q2. For the legacy B2B segment, we keep our estimates unchanged, expecting low-single-digit organic growth as the picture remains more mixed, balancing a gradually improving economy against lingering geopolitical uncertainty. For Q2, we expect EBITA of 13 MSEK (Q2'25: 9 MSEK), corresponding to a margin of ~7.2% (Q2’25: adj. 8.0%), where the year-on-year margin compression continues to reflect the consolidation of Rimab, which carries a structurally lower margin, as well as normalizing staff utilization, and increased sales and marketing investments.

Organic estimates edge up as RUT keeps humming

Our organic revision is again supported by HomeMaid's historically tight correlation to the underlying RUT market, which makes the remaining gap between our B2C growth assumptions and actual market growth difficult to justify on company-specific grounds. We believe the sustained market strength, coupled with the company's increased marketing and sales investments since late 2025, will enable it to at least retain its market share. The Green Clean acquisition in June (~5 MSEK in annual revenue, ~0.4x EV/S) further supports our estimates and, combined with our organic revisions, lifts 2026 revenue by ~1% to ~719 MSEK with a similar follow-through to the outer years, while margins are held largely unchanged. In our view, the macro backdrop nevertheless remains a source of uncertainty, with subdued household confidence and a shifting interest rate narrative, although the RUT market continues to show resilience.

Standalone valuation already appealing, M&A adds a kicker

On our revised estimates, HomeMaid trades at a 2026e adjusted EV/EBITA of ~11x and P/E of ~14x, which we view as neutral on standalone fundamentals (i.e. with no M&A embedded) relative to our acceptable range (EV/EBITA 9x–12x, P/E 11x–14x). However, widening the time lens, the 2027e multiples (adj. EV/EBITA ~10x, P/E ~13x) screen on the lower side of that range. Put differently, on standalone earnings alone we see the stock as fairly priced for 2026 and modestly undervalued for 2027, before any acquisitions are factored in. On top of this, the M&A optionality embedded in our framework, supported by the company's proven bolt-on execution, adds a further layer of upside that the standalone valuation does not reflect. As such, the investment case has, in our view, become more attractive than before, where the share price has fallen while our estimates have moved the other way. With expected earnings growth of 16--12% in 2026-2027, a dividend yield of ~5%, and the company's proven bolt-on execution, we view the risk/reward as increasingly attractive at current levels.