HomeMaid Q3'25: More than an organic growth story

HomeMaid delivered Q3 figures largely in line with our estimates. Strong RUT market activity and intensified sales and marketing activities drove continued B2C momentum, while B2B revenues improved with the positive trend first seen in Q1 remained stable, compounded by the Rimab consolidation. Management also reiterated continued good progress in the profitability turnaround of Rimab. Following Q3, we have only made minor changes to our estimates. While we view HomeMaid as fairly priced on a stand-alone basis, we see increasing odds of acquisitions becoming a more systematic element of value creation. By conservatively incorporating this optionality into our valuation framework, coupled with the expected dividend yield, we see an improved risk/reward profile. As such, we raise our recommendation to Accumulate (was Reduce) and increase our target price to SEK 40 (was SEK 35).

Q3 results largely in line with estimates

HomeMaid’s revenue grew by 29% (y/y) in Q3 to 156 MSEK (Q3’24: 121 MSEK), which was in line with our 157 MSEK forecast. Reported growth was primarily driven by the consolidation of Rimab, and while the actual contribution was not communicated, we assume it contributed to ~25 MSEK in revenue (Inderes est. 24 MSEK). Revenue growth was also supported by organic expansion (8.5% vs Inderes est. 10%). The organic growth development was supported by strong development in the RUT market, intensified marketing initiatives (resulting in good customer onboarding), and improving B2B conditions. Management reiterated that the positive trend shift in the B2B segment remained stable. Headline EBITA (16 MSEK) came in slightly short of our estimate (17 MSEK), corresponding to a margin of 10.2% (Inderes est. 10.5%, Q3’24: 11.6%). The year-on-year margin contraction is primarily attributed to the dilutive effect from the consolidation of the lower-margin Rimab business.

Estimate revisions were minor following the Q3 report

Following the Q3 report and an overall unchanged market outlook (B2C strong, B2B gradually recovering), we keep our 2025e revenue estimates unchanged, but inch our 2026-2027e estimates up by 1% following the small acquisition of B:ME Solutions, with carry-over effects across the forecast period. Similarly, our EBITA estimates remain largely unchanged. Our view on the long-term revenue growth and margin developments remains intact, and we expect HomeMaid to maintain solid growth beyond 2025 (26-28e: 4-6% organically). While the Rimab consolidation will initially weigh on margins slightly (EBITA-% 2025e: 9.2% / pro forma: 8.7%), we expect HomeMaid’s strong focus on margin optimization to somewhat offset the initial dilutive effect in the near term.

Fairly priced on a stand-alone, but we see signs of M&A becoming potentially a more systematic value-creation tool

HomeMaid's asset-light model and strong cash generation support its roll-up acquisition strategy in the fragmented cleaning market, which we increasingly view as a systematic value-creation tool. Our DCF model indicates a value of SEK 35 per share (was SEK 32), though this primarily reflects the stand-alone business and does not capture the potential of accretive M&A. On our earnings multiples, HomeMaid trades at 2025-2026e adjusted EV/EBITA of 12-11x and P/E of 16-15x, which we view as fairly priced for the stand-alone fundamentals (our acceptable range: EV/EBITA 9x-12x, P/E 11x-14x). Following our reassessment of M&A's role, we now arrive at a fair value range of SEK 34-44 (was SEK 30-36). The lower end reflects stand-alone fundamentals supported by 2026e multiples and our DCF, while the upper end includes an additional SEK 7 per share premium, should HomeMaid successfully adopt a more systematic serial-acquirer approach. We believe the stock should currently be valued around the mid-point of this range, given the still-evolving visibility on acquisition cadence and capital allocation priorities. However, we highlight the positive optionality that could be unlocked if the company demonstrates consistency in M&A execution and clarifies its strategic approach, which would warrant a re-rating toward the upper end of our range.