HomeMaid will publish its Q3 report on Wednesday, November 18. Ahead of the report, we expect strong revenue growth, driven by acquisitions and a favorable RUT* market that continues to grow at a double-digit pace. Our main focus in the report will be the B2B segment, where we expect the margin to have remained depressed following the Q2 setback, with only a gradual recovery as corrective measures take effect. Since our Q2 review, HomeMaid has also announced two acquisitions, Hello Clean and Mamasin, of which the latter, its largest deal in 2026, clearly lifts the B2B segment. Neither affects Q3, but they lift our revenue estimates by 2% for 2026 and 9% for 2027–28, and our adjusted EBITA estimates by 3% and ~12%, respectively. In our view, the deals completed so far this year have crystallized some of the M&A optionality we see in the investment case, lifting our standalone valuation. We reiterate our Buy recommendation and SEK 37 target price.

Double-digit growth continues, B2B margin yet to recover

We forecast Q3 revenue of 173 MSEK, representing ~11% year-on-year growth, of which ~6% organic. The RUT cleaning market grew by ~11% in Q3 (y/y), and we expect the B2C segment to grow ~18% to 110 MSEK, of which ~11% organic, in line with the market. As our organic assumption already tracks the market closely, we leave it unchanged for now. For B2B, we expect roughly flat revenue of 63 MSEK, implying an organic decline of ~5% due to the Q2 contract losses. We forecast EBITA of 15 MSEK (Q3'25: 16 MSEK), or a margin of ~8.9% (Q3'25: 10.2%), reflecting the weaker B2B segment, where we expect the margin to recover step by step from the Q2 low. B2B profitability will be the key focus in the report, as Q3 will be the last quarter to show the segment's underlying margin before Mamasin starts to flatter the reported figures.

Mamasin lifts B2B and group estimates

In early November, HomeMaid acquired 80% of Mamasin, a profitable commercial cleaning company in Skåne and Blekinge (2025 revenue: 52 MSEK, EBITA margin: ~14%). The deal was valued at ~4.5x 2025 EBITA and follows the smaller Hello Clean bolt-on in home cleaning, which has been consolidated since October 1. We view Mamasin as attractively priced and strategically logical, as its lean and efficient B2B operation can help lift the commercial cleaning margin over time. While we expect Mamasin's margin to normalize gradually toward management's long-term level of 8-10%, the deal clearly lifts our B2B estimates, , and our 2027 EBITA margin estimate for the segment is now at 6.0% (was 5.2%). At group level, the acquisitions, together with a higher contribution from this year's earlier B2C bolt-ons, lift our revenue estimates to 733 MSEK for 2026 (+2%) and to 835 MSEK and 888 MSEK for 2027–2028 (+9%). Our adjusted EBITA estimates rise to 51 MSEK for 2026 (+3%) and to 67 MSEK and 71 MSEK for 2027–28 (+12%), corresponding to margins of 7.0–8.0% (was 6.9–7.8%), while our adjusted EPS estimates rise by 3%, 11% and 12% for 2026-28.

Acquisitions lift standalone value as M&A optionality partly crystallizes

HomeMaid now trades at a 2026e adjusted EV/EBITA of ~12x and P/E of ~15x, which we view as somewhat stretched relative to our acceptable range (EV/EBITA 9x-12x, P/E 11x-14x), reflecting the temporarily depressed B2B earnings. However, looking past the trough, the 2027e multiples (~9x and ~11x) have moved further down following the acquisitions along with more normalized earnings, and now screen at the low end of our acceptable range. At the same time, we believe the recent M&A activity has crystallized some of the M&A optionality in the investment case, at least in the short term. This means more upside to our standalone valuation (DCF: SEK 36, was SEK 34), but less value optionality from further M&A at this stage. That said, a clearer capital allocation framework, particularly on the pace of M&A versus dividends and leverage, would, in our view, be needed to warrant assigning more value to the M&A optionality in our valuation. With expected EPS growth of ~30% in 2027, a dividend yield of ~5-6%, and potential for multiple expansion, we view the risk/reward as very attractive at current levels.