Homemaid Q4'25: Short-term dust for long-term shine

HomeMaid delivered a mixed Q4 report, with in-line revenue but profitability falling short. While the seasonally strong quarter confirmed solid momentum, with the B2C segment benefiting from robust RUT market activity and intensified marketing efforts, margins faced temporary headwinds from a challenging Christmas period, lower staff utilization, and growth investments. The Rimab integration is progressing ahead of our expectations, though our analysis suggests the legacy B2B business is recovering more gradually than anticipated. Following the Q4 report, we have made minor revenue estimate revisions and reduced our earnings forecasts by 3-5% to reflect a more conservative view on margin normalization. We still view the underlying fundamentals as solid, and we continue to see M&A optionality as a key value driver. We maintain our Accumulate recommendation while lowering our target price to SEK 37 (was SEK 39).

Revenue in line, but profitability missed our expectations

HomeMaid's Q4 revenue of 175 MSEK (+29 y/y) was in line with our estimate. However, the composition differed from our expectations, with M&A contributing more than anticipated (30 MSEK vs. our 26 MSEK estimate) and estimated organic growth coming in weaker at 7% (Inderes est. 9%). B2C revenue of 107 MSEK matched our estimate, supported by strong RUT market activity and intensified marketing initiatives. However, our analysis suggests the legacy B2B business grew only 1% organically in Q4 (Inderes est. 8%), indicating a more gradual recovery than expected. Conversely, Rimab delivered encouraging results, with FY25 revenue of 112 MSEK (vs. guided 100 MSEK) and EBIT of 6 MSEK (vs. 3-5 MSEK), which in our view confirms the turnaround is progressing well. Adjusted EBITA of 12.2 MSEK fell 15% short of our 14.3 MSEK estimate, corresponding to a margin of 7.0% (Inderes est. 8.2%, Q4'24: 8.5%). Beyond the Rimab dilution, the company attributed the weaker year-on-year margin to a more challenging Christmas period with higher cancellations, gross margin pressure from lower staff utilization, and elevated marketing investments. While we view these pressures as largely temporary, we feel they also highlight some minor near-term margin challenges. The board proposed a dividend of SEK 1.60 per share (Inderes est. SEK 1.35), a 30% y/y increase, signaling confidence in cash generation. However, we view this as limiting self-funded M&A capacity in 2026 given outstanding acquisition payments. We continue to see M&A runway, though larger deals would likely require debt financing.

Estimates adjusted to reflect more gradual margin recovery

Following Q4, we have made minor revenue revisions, recalibrating our segment mix with higher Rimab expectations offset by lower legacy B2B assumptions. We have also reduced our 2026-27e EBITA estimates by 3-5% to reflect a more cautious view on margin normalization, with our 2026e EBITA now at 55 MSEK (was 58 MSEK), corresponding to an 8.1% margin (was 8.6%). We expect utilization rates to normalize more gradually and have incorporated a cautious near-term outlook on marketing investment efficiency. Additionally, we have lowered our cash flow estimates to reflect higher working capital consumption and increased our estimate for Rimab’s earn-out payments given its strong FY25 results.

Fair standalone valuation; M&A keeps risk/reward attractive

On our revised estimates, HomeMaid trades at 2026e adjusted EV/EBITA of 12x and P/E of 15x, which we view as fairly valued on standalone fundamentals, albeit on the higher side, relative to our acceptable range (EV/EBITA 9x-12x, P/E 11x-14x). While we see limited upside from earnings multiple expansion on a fully organic basis, we believe the current valuation is attractive when adding the M&A optionality we have included in our framework. We believe the company is well-positioned to create value through systematic M&A in the fragmented cleaning market, supported by its asset-light model, strong historical ROIC (5Y average: 32%), and proven ability to integrate acquisitions. Should HomeMaid adopt a more structured serial acquirer approach, we estimate this could add ~SEK 7 per share above the standalone value. Despite some minor near-term margin pressures, we view the combination of fair standalone valuation, expected earnings growth (FY26e: 9%), attractive dividend yield (FY26e: ~5%), and M&A optionality as supporting an attractive risk/reward profile at current levels.