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Incap: Winning streak behind, pressure test ahead

ICP1VExtensive research15.06.2023 klo 09.18
Antti ViljakainenHead of Research
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Incap that has grown exponentially in recent years faces an acid test toward the end of the year, as the volume of the customer that dominates its revenue decreases. We consider the situation to be temporary and expect Incap's strengths, in particular high cost efficiency, to keep the company on a growth path in the longer term. Despite the share’s highish risk level, both in the short and long term, we find Incap's valuation to be low (2024e: P/E 13x, EV/EBIT 7x), so looking beyond the challenges of this year the share’s risk adjusted expected return is sufficient in our opinion.

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Incap operates in the industrial sector. The company supplies equipment and services for industrial players, where the range includes PCB assembly, system integration, box building integration, design validation, and inspection methods. The largest operations are found in the Nordic, Baltic and Asian regions. The company was originally established in 1985 and is headquartered in Helsinki.

Read more on company page

Key Estimate Figures14.06.2023

202223e24e
Revenue263.8236.3265.2
growth-%55.4 %-10.4 %12.2 %
EBIT (adj.)40.031.237.5
EBIT-% (adj.)15.2 %13.2 %14.1 %
EPS (adj.)0.980.790.97
Dividend0.000.150.20
Dividend %2.0 %2.7 %
P/E (adj.)17.59.37.6
EV/EBITDA12.05.44.1

Forum discussions

Inderes Incap: Incap downgraded its FY 2026 EBITA guidance to EUR 26-29m - Nordea -... Incap confirmed its FY2026 net sales growth guidance ...
6 hours ago
by Ituhippinen
8
Revenue is not the problem today; a comparable EBITA of €26–29 million is, if that is the current level. The market cap is approximately €224...
8 hours ago
by Thiebault
36
So this profit warning depends on 2 factors; Are the customers with Incap hoarding materials due to the ongoing PCB shortage and therefor want...
8 hours ago
by Thomas Kismul
10
“Is it the case that these components have had to be sourced at a higher price now due to availability challenges? In other words, are components...
9 hours ago
by Belfastinbingviini
12
This does feel surprising compared to the discussions in April, although the revenue guidance remained (significantly higher). For a deeper ...
9 hours ago
12
In November, I posted a forum poll about the Incap profit warning right after the Model Portfolio purchases. The user @jjige was the ONLY voter...
9 hours ago
by Pohjolan Eka
28
Scattered thoughts as I consider whether to press the sell button or not. I haven’t pressed it yet, which is why I’m putting my thoughts here...
9 hours ago
by Ituhippinen
26