contentSlug

type

ContentSlug_ContentQuery

slug

ContentPageContentQuery

content

trendingContent

query ContentSlug_ContentQuery(
  $contentSlug: String!
  $type: [ContentType!]
) {
  ...ContentPageContentQuery_13QmVO
}

fragment CompanyDetails_Content on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  companies {
    name
    description
    pageUrl
    id
  }
}

fragment ContentBasicInfo on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  id
  type
  title
  lang
  companies {
    viewerIsFollowing
    id
    name
    pageUrl
  }
  tags {
    viewerIsFollowing
    id
    name
    pageUrl
  }
  ...PublishingDetails
  ...Reactions
}

fragment ContentMetadata on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  type
  title
  lang
  pageUrl
  alternatePageUrls: translations {
    __typename
    pageUrl
    lang
  }
  imgUrl
  description
  ... on Video {
    liveTime
    videoUrl
  }
  ... on Webcast {
    liveTime
    videoUrl
  }
}

fragment ContentPageContentQuery_13QmVO on Query {
  content(slug: $contentSlug, type: $type) {
    __typename
    id
    type
    title
    isPremium
    lang
    htmlBody
    summary
    companies {
      forum {
        latestPosts {
          ...ForumPosts
        }
      }
      name
      id
      viewerIsFollowing
      pageUrl
      defaultInstrument {
        isin
        id
        marketOpen
        marketClose
        marketplace {
          region
        }
        returns {
          total
        }
      }
    }
    tags {
      viewerIsFollowing
      id
      name
      pageUrl
    }
    createdAt
    ... on Video {
      liveTime
    }
    ... on Webcast {
      liveTime
    }
    slug
    ... on CompanyReport {
      reportUrl
    }
    ... on ThirdPartyCompanyReport {
      reportUrl
    }
    ... on StockExchangeRelease {
      reportUrl
    }
    ...ContentBasicInfo
    ...ContentMetadata
    ...PriceAndRecommendation_Content
    ...CompanyDetails_Content
    ...ReportLink_Content
    ...KeyFigures_Content
  }
  ...TrendingContent_1jQ2Cn
}

fragment ForumPosts on ForumPost {
  text
  likesCount
  url
  author
  postedAt
  authorImgUrl
}

fragment KeyFigures_Content on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  companies {
    defaultInstrument {
      estimateData {
        modelType
        reportingCurrency
      }
      snapshot {
        transaction {
          date
          actualized {
            year
            quarter
            revenue
            revenueGrowth
            ebitAdjusted
            ebitReported
            ebitda
            enterpriseValue
            epsAdjusted
            dividend
            dividendYield
            sharePrice
          }
          estimates {
            year
            quarter
            revenue
            revenueGrowth
            ebitAdjusted
            ebitReported
            ebitda
            enterpriseValue
            epsAdjusted
            dividend
            dividendYield
            sharePrice
          }
        }
      }
      id
    }
    id
  }
}

fragment PriceAndRecommendation_Content on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  createdAt
  companies {
    name
    pageUrl
    defaultInstrument {
      priceData {
        tradeCurrency
      }
      snapshot {
        priceData {
          date
          lastPrice
          tradeCurrency
        }
        transaction {
          date
          recommendation
          targetPrice
        }
        prevTransaction {
          recommendation
        }
      }
      id
    }
    id
  }
}

fragment PublishingDetails on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  createdAt
  publishers {
    name
    imgUrl
  }
  authors {
    __typename
    id
    name
    slug
    imgUrl
    jobTitle
  }
  ... on Video {
    liveTime
  }
  ... on Webcast {
    liveTime
  }
}

fragment Reactions on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  id
  reactionGroups {
    reactionType
    reactionsCount
    viewerReacted
  }
}

fragment ReportLink_Content on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  type
  isPremium
  ... on CompanyReport {
    reportUrl
  }
  ... on ThirdPartyCompanyReport {
    reportUrl
  }
  ... on StockExchangeRelease {
    reportUrl
  }
}

fragment TrendingContent_1jQ2Cn on Query {
  trendingContent(type: ARTICLE) {
    __typename
    id
    title
    lang
    pageUrl
    createdAt
    type
    imgUrl
    companies {
      squareLogoUrl
      name
      id
    }
    authors {
      __typename
      imgUrl
      id
    }
    publishers {
      imgUrl
    }
  }
}


loihde-heading-towards-more-difficult-cycle-good-shape

__typename

title

isPremium

lang

htmlBody

summary

companies

createdAt

publishers

authors

reactionGroups

pageUrl

translations

imgUrl

description

Head of Nordic ER Development, Analyst

Antti Luiro

Analyst

Frans-Mikael Rostedt

Loihde is a service company for digital development and security. The company offers solutions within data analysis and data management, user experience design, software development, cloud services, and services within cybersecurity and security technology. The customers consist of corporate customers operating in a number of different sectors. The largest operations are found in Finland and Sweden.

Here are Frans’s comments regarding this 10 million euro deal.  Yesterday, Loihde announced that it had signed a framework agreement worth approximately EUR 10 million for access control systems for the years 2025–2028, including option years 2029 and 2030. The company has previously served as a partner for the Defence Forces’ access control systems. The procurement concerns equipment, software, licenses, and related services for the expansion of the Defence Forces’ Lenel OnGuard access control system. The overall package includes, among other things, design, installation, commissioning, and training services, as well as documentation related to the expansion.                   Inderes              Loihteelle 10 MEUR:n puitesopimus puolustusvoimien kanssa  - Inderes    Hankinta koskee Puolustusvoimien Lenel OnGuard -kulunvalvontajärjestelmän laajentamiseen liittyviä laitteita, ohjelmistoja, lisenssejä sekä niihin liittyviä palveluita.

loihde.com              Puolustusvoimat valitsi Loihde Trustin kumppanikseen lukitusjärjestelmien...    Puolustusvoimien logistiikkalaitos valitsi Loihteen kumppaniksi lukitusjärjestelmiä ja -laitteita sekä niihin liittyviä palveluita koskeviin hankintoihin.                             The previous agreement, concluded 4 years ago for the now-ended contract period, was 6m, so the new agreement is significantly larger if calculated by value per year. “ In addition, the Defence Forces concluded a 6 million euro framework agreement with Loihde Trust in the summer for the years 2021–2025. The procurement covers equipment, software, licenses, and related services for the expansion of the Defence Forces’ Lenel OnGuard access control system. The package includes, among other things, design, installation, commissioning, and training services, as well as documentation related to the expansion. “ EDIT: If the new 10m framework agreement covers only the next three years, then the value per year is approximately 3.3m vs the old agreement’s 1.5m per year. If the stated value also covers the option years (a less likely alternative), then the value of the new agreement is 2m per year. The announcement does not state this explicitly.

10m extension agreement with the Defence Forces.                   loihde.com              Loihteelle 10 miljoonan euron sopimus Puolustusvoimien kanssa    Loihteelle 10 miljoonan euron sopimus Puolustusvoimien kanssa

Interesting move. My thoughts briefly:   +a significant acquisition in terms of magnitude.   +Economies of scale are starting to turn in Loihtee’s favor (if they can be utilized)   +the company is clearly focusing on becoming a security company, which could finally give the diverse business an opportunity to transform into a more focused operation.   -The purchase price is high, and for it to become reasonable, significant synergies must be realized. Unfortunately, the company has not been very successful with them so far. On the other hand, the security side has been successfully built into a profitable business in a few years. So, there are ingredients for success on that front.   -In recent years, digital development has been integrated into “one company,” including the brand, and this has, at least in terms of numbers, caused significant damage. (If one looks at the size of the businesses acquired there, and how much staff is still reported to be left in them).   ±Now that the company is focusing on the security business, it seems increasingly clear that the digital business will eventually be spun off and sold to a new owner. The big question is whether it can still fetch a reasonable price from the market or if a buyer can be found at all.   In my opinion, this move turns positive if they manage to sell the digital business to a new owner, and then simplify the administration to match the organizational and cost structure of a single business (security).

I wrote quite comprehensive comments regarding the deal. An interesting deal indeed. The acquisition price for BLC as an independent company would be expensive, but as part of Loihde, I believe the deal’s value creation opportunities are good. Of course, these also rely heavily on synergies, which always involve uncertainty. In this acquisition, as the business is in many respects very similar to Loihde’s, the realization of synergies should be more probable than average, as we know quite certainly what we are acquiring.                   Inderes              Loihde lähes kaksinkertaistamassa Turvaratkaisujen kokoluokan BLC Turva...    Kaupan arvonluontimahdollisuudet ovat hyvä ja suhtaudumme kauppaan positiivisesti.                             Our fairly recent extensive report has quite extensively covered this target market for Security Solutions, if you are more interested in the matter. Here are a couple of graphs. Note: Securitas’s profitability is a poor benchmark due to their quite different business profile.

A blow to dividend hawks  : Loihteen hallitus on päättänyt olla jakamatta lisäosinkoa vuonna 2025 yhtiön rahoitusaseman varmistamiseksi BLC Turva -yritysoston integraation ajan | Kauppalehti To ensure the company’s stable financial position during the integration of the acquisition, Loihde Plc’s Board of Directors has decided that it will not exercise the authorization granted to it by the Annual General Meeting on May 8, 2025, to distribute an additional dividend.

Here’s more about the acquired company via its own pages BLC Turva | About us BLC Turva | Tietoa meistä

Loihde

In Q3, Loihde performed better than our cautious expectations and we made slight upward revisions and added the Onrego acquisition to our estimates. Loihde is making a clear improvement in profitabili...

<p>In Q3, Loihde performed better than our cautious expectations and we made slight upward revisions and added the Onrego acquisition to our estimates. Loihde is making a clear improvement in profitability this year and we see the potential for even better levels with current business mix as we look beyond a more difficult economic cycle. As the acquisitions aimed at allocating the huge net cash (~45% of market value) progress, we expect the uncertainty weighing on the company's accepted valuation to disappear. In this case, the expected return that is based on rising valuation multiples and dividend yield is set at an attractive -1-23% based on our current estimates, depending on the acquisition multiples and accepted valuation levels of the companies bought. </p> 

	2021	22e	23e
Revenue	107.3	126.0	141.6
growth-%	6.2 %	17.5 %	12.4 %
EBIT (adj.)	2.3	3.6	3.0
EBIT-% (adj.)	2.2 %	2.9 %	2.1 %
EPS (adj.)	0.54	0.29	0.48
Dividend	0.55	0.22	0.22
Dividend %	3.4 %	1.9 %	1.9 %
P/E (adj.)	29.9	41.4	24.8
EV/EBITDA	6.1	3.8	7.4

Loihde: Heading towards a more difficult cycle in a good shape

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Key Estimate Figures02.11.2022

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