While Metacon delivered continued backlog execution in its Q2 report, the main takeaways in our view were the weak order intake and management's commentary on the slow market development. With the backlog now drawing down, the short-term runway recently secured through the rights issue will not last long in the absence of new orders, which raises financing risk. Weak visibility on both order intake and a durable financing solution has led us to lower our target price to SEK 0.19 per share (prev. SEK 0.23 per share). As the expected return now sits below our required return, we downgrade to a Reduce recommendation (prev. Accumulate).

Top-line growth overshadowed by weak order intake and margin pressure

Metacon's Q2 revenue came in at 65 MSEK, up around 15% year-on-year, though below our expectations as backlog revenue recognition was slower than anticipated. Order intake, however, is where we place greater emphasis, as a steady flow of new contracts is essential for the company to eventually reach self-funded growth. On this measure, the quarter was weak, just 0.5 MSEK in Q2 and 89 MSEK on a rolling 12-month basis. While management points to a growing sales pipeline, we have yet to see those conversations convert into firm orders.

Gross profit was negative at -3.2 MSEK, which the company attributes to work on components and customized piping proving a significantly larger scope than estimated, driven by late design changes and compressed, grant-linked customer deadlines requiring expedited execution. The end-Q2 cash position stood at roughly 83 MSEK, subsequently strengthened by a rights issue we estimate provided around 50 MSEK in net proceeds, including repayment of the January bridge financing. While we believe this should support execution of the short-term backlog, the lack of new orders raises financing risk. As the order book thins, securing financing on reasonable terms may become more difficult, which we view as a key risk going forward.

Weak order intake prompts more cautious estimates

Metacon has not yet announced any new large-scale orders. With order intake weak and the backlog drawing down through continued execution, we estimate it stood at only around 60–70 MSEK at the end of Q2'26. The company continues to state that customer interest is high and the sales pipeline is growing, though we find management's comments on projects reaching investment decisions more cautious. Market data and industry-wide order intake also remain weak, reflecting high capital costs, regulatory delays, and soft end-user demand. As a result, we have taken a more cautious stance in our estimates. We still expect revenue to be driven primarily by the electrolysis business area, the company's key growth engine, with continued backlog execution in 2026 alongside an additional 2–3 large-scale orders during 2026–2027, comparable in size to the Motor Oil order (approximately 30–50 MW). We believe this is reasonable given Metacon's positioning through its PERIC partnership, but the forecast risk remains high and order timing highly uncertain.

We turn to a Reduce recommendation

In our view, the fair value of Metacon’s share with the current assumptions is around SEK 0.06-0.39 per share (prev. SEK 0.10-0.45 per share), which has been lowered since our last update due to reduced estimates. In our view, it will be difficult for the company to overcome the downward pressure from the expected financing needs, the high cash burn, and the uncertainty of whether it will continue to receive larger orders regularly and at what profitability level. Until there is greater visibility, particularly on order intake and a durable financing solution, we believe the current drivers justify a valuation towards the lower end of the range. As a result, we lower our target price to SEK 0.19 per share (prev. SEK 0.23 per share) and turn to a Reduce recommendation (prev. Accumulate).