Metacon Q4'25: Record quarter, eyes on next large-scale order

Metacon's Q4 figures significantly exceeded our expectations, marking the strongest quarter in the company's history. However, the company has not announced new orders since September 2025, and we had anticipated another large-scale order by now. As a result, as we consider order intake the most important driver of revenue visibility, we have taken a more cautious stance in our near-term estimates. Despite these downward revisions, we believe that the current valuation offers an attractive risk/reward profile. As a result, we increase our recommendation to Buy (was Accumulate) but lower our target price to SEK 0.40 per share (prev. SEK 0.60), mainly due to lower estimates.

Q4 revenue significantly above our expectations

Metacon's Q4 revenue reached 90.1 MSEK, representing a strong increase compared to the previous year, although from a low base due to limited project activity during the same period in 2024. The revenue significantly exceeded our expectations, primarily due to a higher-than-anticipated completion rate in ongoing electrolysis projects in Greece, Romania, and Morocco. While revenue was significantly above our forecast, high variable costs and slightly higher-than-expected operating expenses resulted in EBIT of -13.5 MSEK, roughly in line with our estimates. For the full year 2025, EBIT improved to -58.0 MSEK from -134.2 MSEK in the previous year, showing a clear trajectory toward profitability as the revenue base expands.

At the end of Q4’25, Metacon’s cash position stood at 69.0 MSEK, of which 25.3 MSEK are blocked bank funds. However, on January 20, 2026, Metacon announced that the company will receive temporary project financing of 50 MSEK from Fenja Capital. In our view, the secured financing provides a crucial buffer to bridge the gap until major customer payments materialize, which should strengthen the balance sheet. Given the company’s now-established track record of securing and executing large orders, we believe Metacon is well-positioned to obtain additional project financing on reasonable terms if needed, though we believe that the 50 MSEK facility should provide adequate runway for the near term.

Near-term estimates revised down due to delayed order intake

We have lowered our short-term estimates as Metacon has not announced new business since September 2025. We had expected in our estimates that the company would receive another large-scale order in Q1'26, with revenue to be recognized in 2026 and 2027, given the generally long lead times. While the company sees many projects of varying sizes moving forward and has good opportunities to win new contracts, we have not yet seen any concrete orders materialize. As a result, we have taken a more cautious stance in our revenue estimates for 2026 and 2027. Lower revenue estimates have also resulted in a higher estimated operating loss for 2026-2027, though since Metacon's costs are largely variable and scale with revenue, the difference in absolute terms is not significant.

We increase our recommendation to Buy

In our view, the fair value of Metacon’s share with the current assumptions is around SEK 0.12-0.72 per share (prev. 0.20-1.01 per share). This is lower than our previous range, mainly due to lower estimates. In our view, with the significantly stronger order inflow that Metacon has shown during the past year, the company is better positioned to achieve broader commercialization. However, uncertainty remains about the company's ability to secure additional large orders on a consistent and profitable basis. Given these factors, we keep our target price roughly in the middle of our fair value range at SEK 0.40 per share (was SEK 0.60). The target price decrease is mainly related to lower estimates, which has brought the fair value range down slightly. As the expected return significantly exceeds our required return, we increase our recommendation to Buy (was Accumulate).