contentSlug

type

ContentSlug_ContentQuery

slug

ContentPageContentQuery

content

trendingContent

query ContentSlug_ContentQuery(
  $contentSlug: String!
  $type: [ContentType!]
) {
  ...ContentPageContentQuery_13QmVO
}

fragment CompanyDetails_Content on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  companies {
    name
    description
    pageUrl
    id
  }
}

fragment ContentBasicInfo on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  id
  type
  title
  lang
  companies {
    viewerIsFollowing
    id
    name
    pageUrl
  }
  tags {
    viewerIsFollowing
    id
    name
    pageUrl
  }
  ...PublishingDetails
  ...Reactions
}

fragment ContentMetadata on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  type
  title
  lang
  pageUrl
  alternatePageUrls: translations {
    __typename
    pageUrl
    lang
  }
  imgUrl
  description
  ... on Video {
    liveTime
    videoUrl
  }
  ... on Webcast {
    liveTime
    videoUrl
  }
}

fragment ContentPageContentQuery_13QmVO on Query {
  content(slug: $contentSlug, type: $type) {
    __typename
    id
    type
    title
    isPremium
    lang
    htmlBody
    summary
    companies {
      forum {
        latestPosts {
          ...ForumPosts
        }
      }
      name
      id
      viewerIsFollowing
      pageUrl
      defaultInstrument {
        isin
        id
        marketOpen
        marketClose
        marketplace {
          region
        }
        returns {
          total
        }
      }
    }
    tags {
      viewerIsFollowing
      id
      name
      pageUrl
    }
    createdAt
    ... on Video {
      liveTime
    }
    ... on Webcast {
      liveTime
    }
    slug
    ... on CompanyReport {
      reportUrl
    }
    ... on ThirdPartyCompanyReport {
      reportUrl
    }
    ... on StockExchangeRelease {
      reportUrl
    }
    ...ContentBasicInfo
    ...ContentMetadata
    ...PriceAndRecommendation_Content
    ...CompanyDetails_Content
    ...ReportLink_Content
    ...KeyFigures_Content
  }
  ...TrendingContent_1jQ2Cn
}

fragment ForumPosts on ForumPost {
  text
  likesCount
  url
  author
  postedAt
  authorImgUrl
}

fragment KeyFigures_Content on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  companies {
    defaultInstrument {
      estimateData {
        modelType
        reportingCurrency
      }
      snapshot {
        transaction {
          date
          actualized {
            year
            quarter
            revenue
            revenueGrowth
            ebitAdjusted
            ebitReported
            ebitda
            enterpriseValue
            epsAdjusted
            dividend
            dividendYield
            sharePrice
          }
          estimates {
            year
            quarter
            revenue
            revenueGrowth
            ebitAdjusted
            ebitReported
            ebitda
            enterpriseValue
            epsAdjusted
            dividend
            dividendYield
            sharePrice
          }
        }
      }
      id
    }
    id
  }
}

fragment PriceAndRecommendation_Content on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  createdAt
  companies {
    name
    pageUrl
    defaultInstrument {
      priceData {
        tradeCurrency
      }
      snapshot {
        priceData {
          date
          lastPrice
          tradeCurrency
        }
        transaction {
          date
          recommendation
          targetPrice
        }
        prevTransaction {
          recommendation
        }
      }
      id
    }
    id
  }
}

fragment PublishingDetails on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  createdAt
  publishers {
    name
    imgUrl
  }
  authors {
    __typename
    id
    name
    slug
    imgUrl
    jobTitle
  }
  ... on Video {
    liveTime
  }
  ... on Webcast {
    liveTime
  }
}

fragment Reactions on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  id
  reactionGroups {
    reactionType
    reactionsCount
    viewerReacted
  }
}

fragment ReportLink_Content on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  type
  isPremium
  ... on CompanyReport {
    reportUrl
  }
  ... on ThirdPartyCompanyReport {
    reportUrl
  }
  ... on StockExchangeRelease {
    reportUrl
  }
}

fragment TrendingContent_1jQ2Cn on Query {
  trendingContent(type: ARTICLE) {
    __typename
    id
    title
    lang
    pageUrl
    createdAt
    type
    imgUrl
    companies {
      squareLogoUrl
      name
      id
    }
    authors {
      __typename
      imgUrl
      id
    }
    publishers {
      imgUrl
    }
  }
}


__typename

title

isPremium

lang

htmlBody

summary

companies

createdAt

publishers

authors

reactionGroups

pageUrl

translations

imgUrl

description

Co. Head of Research

Petri Gostowski

Neste produces transport fuel and renewable fuels. Today, the largest operations and extraction are held in the Nordic market, where the company is active in the entire value chain, from extraction to delivery to port depots. In addition, the opportunity is given for direct sales where customers can pick up fuel at selected stations. The largest market is in the Nordic region, and the company is headquartered in Espoo, Finland.

It’s a bit strange that Neste sold its inventories in Q3 (only Q2) when it was known, however, that shutdowns would occur now at the end of the year and SAF purchases always increase at the end of the year when targets need to be met. On the other hand, Neste’s share price was quite weak at the time, so larger sales volumes improved the result and thus also the share price.

Yes, it was 26 euros. OP also had something quite close to that. It would certainly be interesting to get an update on the view from Inderes.

According to news reports, at least, Berenberg raised the target price to 26 euros. Where did you get that 25€?

Inderes Neste update is on 30.10.2025 (stock “peaked” at 18.9e):  Neste expects sales volume growth in both Renewable Products and Oil Products, but in the short term, volume constraints prevent significant benefit from the improving market situation. The stock’s valuation is high in relation to the current earnings level, and the market is expected to improve margin outlooks, but current pricing includes assumptions about the market situation correcting.  Will there be an update on this, @Petri_Gostowski, as Germany’s RED III and the removal of double counting were probably not known at that time? It feels like target prices have been generally rising, which is always pleasant to read.

Berenberg raises Neste to “buy” from “hold”, citing an earlier-than-expected recovery of the Finnish fuel maker’s margins, helped by improving demand, lower costs Neste shares rise about 3%, with YTD gains at about 54% ** While Neste has battled oversupply in renewable fuel, Berenberg expects increased sales with regulations imposing mandatory volumes in the EU and U.S. ** The broker forecasts 12% CAGR in sales volumes over the coming three years, and the sales margin to recover to $575/ton It also expects lower capex, improving balance sheet in the coming quarters as Neste’s new management continues reducing costs The broker ups PT for Neste by 58% to 25 euros Out of 21 analysts covering Neste, 10 rate it “buy”, seven “hold” and four “sell” (Reporting by Boleslaw Lasocki) ((gdansk.newsroom@thomsonreuters.com; +48 58 769 66 00;))

News Powered by Cision              Neste päivittää osan ilmastotavoitteistaan    Neste Oyj, Lehdistötiedote, 15.12.2025 klo 11 Neste, maailman johtava uusiutuvan                             Neste, the world’s leading producer of sustainable aviation fuel and renewable diesel, is updating some of its climate targets due to the company’s current financial situation and tight investment framework. Achieving the original climate targets within the ambitious timeline would have required significant investments that are not realistic in the current situation. Neste continues to pursue growth in renewable fuels and offers alternatives to fossil fuels to mitigate climate change. Neste sets a carbon footprint target to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from its own operations (Scope 1 and 2) by 80% by 2040, replacing the target of achieving carbon-neutral production by 2035. The timeline for achieving the related interim target of a 50% emission reduction is shifted from 2030 to 2035. With these changes, Neste focuses on absolute emission reductions from its own operations and abandons the possibility of utilizing emission compensation in its climate targets. Two of Neste’s climate targets remain unchanged: the carbon footprint target to reduce the emission intensity of sold products’ use phase by 50% by 2040, and the carbon handprint target to reduce customers’ greenhouse gas emissions by at least 20 million tons annually by 2030. The reference years for the targets, 2019 and 2020, have not been changed. In the short term, Neste’s actions to curb its carbon footprint focus on improving energy efficiency and operational performance, as well as seeking alternatives to the use of fossil hydrogen. Neste’s planning and development work for the gradual transformation of the Porvoo refinery continues. The timeline for transitioning from crude oil refining to processing renewable and circular economy raw materials will be determined by fuel market demand, legislation, and technological development. For now, fossil fuels are needed, among other things, to secure Finland’s energy supply.

Could you clarify this; are you aware that some market has regulation-based pricing regulation? However, I assume you mean how price setting works based on regulations in different markets.

Neste

The Q3 figures reported by Neste were well ahead of our expectations, reflecting which we raised our estimates for the current year. However, our focus is on earnings growth in the coming years, driven by volume growth in Renewable Products. In this respect, the outlook for next year is very cloudy due to several variables. In the longer term, however, we are confident that rising sales volumes from investments in Renewable Products will drive earnings growth, even if margins come under pressure from current peak levels.

<p>The Q3 figures reported by Neste were well ahead of our expectations, reflecting which we raised our estimates for the current year. However, our focus is on earnings growth in the coming years, driven by volume growth in Renewable Products. In this respect, the outlook for next year is very cloudy due to several variables. In the longer term, however, we are confident that rising sales volumes from investments in Renewable Products will drive earnings growth, even if margins come under pressure from current peak levels.</p> 

	2022	23e	24e
Revenue	25,707.4	21,931.1	23,569.8
growth-%	69.7 %	-14.7 %	7.5 %
EBIT (adj.)	2,898.0	2,641.5	2,086.8
EBIT-% (adj.)	11.3 %	12.0 %	8.9 %
EPS (adj.)	3.02	2.90	2.13
Dividend	1.52	1.10	1.15
Dividend %	3.5 %	5.9 %	6.2 %
P/E (adj.)	14.3	6.4	8.7
EV/EBITDA	11.3	6.1	5.4

Neste: Into the unknown

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Key Estimate Figures26.10.2023

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