contentSlug

type

ContentSlug_ContentQuery

slug

ContentPageContentQuery

content

trendingContent

query ContentSlug_ContentQuery(
  $contentSlug: String!
  $type: [ContentType!]
) {
  ...ContentPageContentQuery_13QmVO
}

fragment CompanyDetails_Content on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  companies {
    name
    description
    pageUrl
    id
  }
}

fragment ContentBasicInfo on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  id
  type
  title
  lang
  companies {
    viewerIsFollowing
    id
    name
    pageUrl
  }
  tags {
    viewerIsFollowing
    id
    name
    pageUrl
  }
  ...PublishingDetails
  ...Reactions
}

fragment ContentMetadata on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  type
  title
  lang
  pageUrl
  alternatePageUrls: translations {
    __typename
    pageUrl
    lang
  }
  imgUrl
  description
  ... on Video {
    liveTime
    videoUrl
  }
  ... on Webcast {
    liveTime
    videoUrl
  }
}

fragment ContentPageContentQuery_13QmVO on Query {
  content(slug: $contentSlug, type: $type) {
    __typename
    id
    type
    title
    isPremium
    lang
    htmlBody
    summary
    companies {
      forum {
        latestPosts {
          ...ForumPosts
        }
      }
      name
      id
      viewerIsFollowing
      pageUrl
      defaultInstrument {
        isin
        id
        marketOpen
        marketClose
        marketplace {
          region
        }
        returns {
          total
        }
      }
    }
    tags {
      viewerIsFollowing
      id
      name
      pageUrl
    }
    createdAt
    ... on Video {
      liveTime
    }
    ... on Webcast {
      liveTime
    }
    slug
    ... on CompanyReport {
      reportUrl
    }
    ... on ThirdPartyCompanyReport {
      reportUrl
    }
    ... on StockExchangeRelease {
      reportUrl
    }
    ...ContentBasicInfo
    ...ContentMetadata
    ...PriceAndRecommendation_Content
    ...CompanyDetails_Content
    ...ReportLink_Content
    ...KeyFigures_Content
  }
  ...TrendingContent_1jQ2Cn
}

fragment ForumPosts on ForumPost {
  text
  likesCount
  url
  author
  postedAt
  authorImgUrl
}

fragment KeyFigures_Content on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  companies {
    defaultInstrument {
      estimateData {
        modelType
        reportingCurrency
      }
      snapshot {
        transaction {
          date
          actualized {
            year
            quarter
            revenue
            revenueGrowth
            ebitAdjusted
            ebitReported
            ebitda
            enterpriseValue
            epsAdjusted
            dividend
            dividendYield
            sharePrice
            nav
            navPerShare
            opexOfNav
            quarterlySharePrice
          }
          estimates {
            year
            quarter
            revenue
            revenueGrowth
            ebitAdjusted
            ebitReported
            ebitda
            enterpriseValue
            epsAdjusted
            dividend
            dividendYield
            sharePrice
            nav
            navPerShare
            opexOfNav
            quarterlySharePrice
          }
        }
      }
      id
    }
    id
  }
}

fragment PriceAndRecommendation_Content on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  createdAt
  companies {
    name
    pageUrl
    defaultInstrument {
      priceData {
        tradeCurrency
      }
      snapshot {
        priceData {
          date
          lastPrice
          tradeCurrency
        }
        transaction {
          date
          recommendation
          targetPrice
        }
        prevTransaction {
          recommendation
        }
      }
      id
    }
    id
  }
}

fragment PublishingDetails on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  createdAt
  publishers {
    name
    imgUrl
  }
  authors {
    __typename
    id
    name
    slug
    imgUrl
    jobTitle
  }
  ... on Video {
    liveTime
  }
  ... on Webcast {
    liveTime
  }
}

fragment Reactions on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  id
  reactionGroups {
    reactionType
    reactionsCount
    viewerReacted
  }
}

fragment ReportLink_Content on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  type
  isPremium
  ... on CompanyReport {
    reportUrl
  }
  ... on ThirdPartyCompanyReport {
    reportUrl
  }
  ... on StockExchangeRelease {
    reportUrl
  }
}

fragment TrendingContent_1jQ2Cn on Query {
  trendingContent(type: ARTICLE) {
    __typename
    id
    title
    lang
    pageUrl
    createdAt
    type
    imgUrl
    companies {
      squareLogoUrl
      name
      id
    }
    authors {
      __typename
      imgUrl
      id
    }
    publishers {
      imgUrl
    }
  }
}


nibe-q324-signs-of-recovery-but-riskreward-is-thin

__typename

title

isPremium

lang

htmlBody

summary

companies

createdAt

publishers

authors

reactionGroups

pageUrl

translations

imgUrl

description

Analyst

Lucas Mattsson

Nibe Industrier operates in the manufacturing industry and focuses on the development, manufacture and distribution of heat pumps and energy solutions. The company's products are aimed at private individuals and companies looking for energy-efficient solutions. The business is global with a main presence in Europe. Nibe Industrier was founded in 1989 and has its headquarters in Markaryd, Sweden.

Here are comments from Lucas regarding how German heat pump subsidy applications have grown significantly.                    Inderes              NIBE: Saksan tukihakemukset osoittavat vahvaa v/v-kasvua tammikuussa - Inderes    Saksan talous- ja ilmastoministeriön (BMWK) tietojen mukaan lämpöpumpputukihakemuksia oli Saksassa tammikuussa 2026 yhteensä 21 342. Tämä tarkoittaa merkittävää 49 %:n kasvua verrattuna tammikuuhun 2025, vaikka kyseessä on peräkkäinen lasku, joka...

Here are Lucas’s comments on how the German government is changing the heating law and how it may affect Nibe.                   Inderes              NIBE: Saksan politiikan muutos lisää riskiä, mutta osakkeen voimakas...    Saksan hallituksen päätös romuttaa keskeisiä osia kiistanalaisesta lämmityslakista on valitettava kehityskulku, jolla uskomme olevan negatiivinen vaikutus Saksan lämpöpumppumarkkinoihin. Vaikka tällä hetkellä on vaikea arvioida vaikutuksen tarkkaa...

The new inverter ground source heat pumps are at least very efficient according to the specs, and you would think that this would create new markets for Nibe’s products.

Here is a fresh company report on NIBE from Lucas  NIBE’s Q4 report fell slightly short of our expectations, mainly due to stronger-than-expected currency headwinds. However, underlying organic growth and margins were strong, especially in the key Climate Solutions business area, which gives us more confidence in the current turnaround. Despite the recent rise in the share price, we still believe that the valuation (P/E 2026-2027: 25x and 21x) is attractive. As a result, we reiterate our Accumulate recommendation but raise our target price to SEK 44 per share (prev. SEK 38 per share), mainly due to raised forecasts and a slightly lowered risk profile.                   Inderes              NIBE Q4'24: Elpymisen kuumentuminen - Inderes    NIBEn Q4-raportti jäi hieman odotuksistamme johtuen pääasiassa odotettua voimakkaammista valuuttakurssien vastatuulista. Kuitenkin taustalla oleva orgaaninen kasvu ja katteet olivat vahvoja, erityisesti tärkeällä Climate Solutions...

Here are Lucas’s preview comments as NIBE reports its results on Thursday, February 12.  We expect the report to show that the gradual recovery of revenue volumes and margins is moving in the right direction. Although the business environment remains challenging, particularly in the new construction market, we expect improved demand in Europe’s key heat pump markets and effective cost control to support the result. In the Q4 report, we will focus on management’s updated comments regarding the 2026 margin targets.                   Inderes              NIBE Q4'25 -ennakko: Termostaattia käännetään kohti elpymistä - Inderes    NIBE julkaisee Q4'25-tuloksensa torstaina 12. helmikuuta 2026, ja tulosesitystä voi seurata täältä klo 12.00 Suomen aikaa. Odotamme raportin osoittavan, että myyntivolyymien ja katteiden asteittainen elpyminen etenee oikeaan suuntaan. Vaikka...

Lucas has written a company report following the Q3 results.  While NIBE’s Q3 report fell slightly short of our expectations, we believe the big picture remains unchanged: a gradual recovery in sales volumes and margins continues in the right direction. Therefore, we consider the market reaction, which drove the share price down by 13%, to be somewhat exaggerated and see it creating an even more attractive buying opportunity for the company’s compelling long-term investment story. As a result, we reiterate our Accumulate recommendation, but lower our target price slightly to SEK 38.0 per share (prev. SEK 40.0), mainly due to lower forecasts.                   Inderes              NIBE Q3'25: Elpyminen etenee oikeaan suuntaan - Inderes    Vaikka NIBE:n Q3-raportti jäi jonkin verran odotuksistamme, uskomme kokonaiskuvan pysyvän ennallaan: asteittainen elpyminen myyntivolyymeissa ja katteissa jatkuu oikeaan suuntaan. Siksi pidämme markkinoiden reaktiota, joka ajoi osakekurssin 13 %...

Hello! We are approaching the end of the reporting season, but we still have some exciting reports left – including Nibe. Several of Nibe’s competitors have already presented their Q3 reports, and I thought it might be interesting to compile some reflections on these. Based on competitors’ Q3 reports, a clear common trend emerges: the European heat pump market continues to recover, with Germany particularly highlighted as strong. Carrier (owner of Viessmann, one of the leading heat pump manufacturers in Germany) reported a 15% sales increase for heat pumps in Europe within the residential segment during Q3. In Germany, sales increased by a significant 45%, and the company expects the trend to continue. Italian Ariston, another competitor to Nibe, also reported organic sales growth of just over 4%, primarily driven by strong development in Germany. The German market accounts for approximately 20% of Ariston’s total sales. Given the positive development during the first nine months of the year and the trends the company sees at the beginning of Q4, Ariston chose to raise its full-year forecast to approximately 3% organic growth (from a previous 1–3%). Competitor Daikin describes the market climate for heat pumps in Europe as still challenging but also emphasizes that demand in Germany is strong. This development is in line with the market data we have been following during the year. Underlying heat pump sales in Germany increased by 55% during the first half of 2025. The country also offers financial support for private individuals who install heat pumps, with the aim of reducing gas dependency and accelerating the transition from fossil-fueled heating systems. The subsidies are, of course, an important driving force behind the strong sales development. One can also follow the number of subsidy applications, which functions somewhat as an indicator for future sales. Applications increased by 78% in September and 49% in August, which will likely affect the manufacturing sector with some delay. The German market is also significant for Nibe. We estimate that it accounts for approximately 10–15% of Climate Solutions’ sales, and since Europe as a whole accounts for about 70% of the business area’s turnover, the region is central to Nibe’s development. At a European level, heat pump sales increased by 9% during the first half of 2025, signaling good demand from end consumers. In addition to Germany, Sweden, the Netherlands, and Italy have also driven growth, while the recovery in France and parts of Eastern Europe is slower. We have already received statistics for heat pump sales in Sweden and the Netherlands for Q3, where both countries show stable but somewhat decelerating growth (Sweden: 8%, Netherlands: 6%). In Sweden, construction has slowed down more than the more optimistic forecasts of the first half of the year indicated. At the same time, the temporarily raised ROT deduction (ROT-avdraget) to 50% (from 30%) is expected to stimulate demand during the rest of the year. However, when the deduction returns to 30% at the turn of the year, there is a risk of a slowdown in sales during early 2026. The Dutch market is partly affected by the reduction of subsidies for smaller air-to-water heat pumps at the beginning of the year. This led to an order intake peak during Q4’24, with deliveries during the first months of 2025 – which likely explains the relatively high growth during the first half of the year. This indicates that the increase may have been temporary rather than structural, making it particularly interesting to follow market data in the Netherlands in the coming quarters.

Nibe Industrier

NIBE’s Q3 result was operationally slightly below our expectations, and we made small revisions to our short- and medium-term estimates. However, the company's outlook continues to show signs of a recovery in the destocking situation, but overall, the current year and at least the first half of next year will still be challenging. Eventually, demand at the manufacturer level will better correspond to underlying end consumer demand and the normalization of capacity utilization and the cost savings program should provide leverage for profitability improvements in the medium term. In our view, given the ongoing uncertainties in the operating environment, the stock is already sufficiently priced in for earnings growth (2025e P/E: 29x).

<p>NIBE&#x2019;s Q3 result was operationally slightly below our expectations, and we made small revisions to our short- and medium-term estimates. However, the company&apos;s outlook continues to show signs of a recovery in the destocking situation, but overall, the current year and at least the first half of next year will still be challenging. Eventually, demand at the manufacturer level will better correspond to underlying end consumer demand and the normalization of capacity utilization and the cost savings program should provide leverage for profitability improvements in the medium term. In our view, given the ongoing uncertainties in the operating environment, the stock is already sufficiently priced in for earnings growth (2025e P/E: 29x).</p>

	2023	24e	25e
Revenue	46,649.0	40,580.6	43,917.8
growth-%	16.4 %	-13.0 %	8.2 %
EBIT (adj.)	7,069.0	3,150.7	5,211.2
EBIT-% (adj.)	15.2 %	7.8 %	11.9 %
EPS (adj.)	2.42	0.65	1.74
Dividend	0.65	0.35	0.55
Dividend %	0.9 %	1.0 %	1.6 %
P/E (adj.)	29.2	53.4	19.8
EV/EBITDA	18.2	21.4	11.4

NIBE Q3'24: Signs of recovery but risk/reward is thin

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Key Estimate Figures18.11.2024

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