Translation: Original published in Finnish on 11/03/2026 at 08:00 am EET

Nightingale announced two new medium-sized proteomics service contracts in October. In addition, the company has announced a public healthcare pilot in Finland and a new clinical partnership in the UK. Based on the contracts, we raise our revenue and earnings estimates for the coming years. We reiterate our Accumulate recommendation and raise the target price to EUR 1.60 (was 1.30 €) with the estimate changes and improved visibility.

Proteomics is emerging as a new pillar

In late October, Nightingale signed two proteomics service contracts worth 1 MUSD (~0.9 MEUR) with LifeArc and Alzheimer’s Research UK. In both projects, the company will analyze 10,000 UK Biobank samples using Alamar Biosciences' NULISAseq Neuro 220 panel. The contracts follow the significant-scale contract of around 5.8 MEUR concluded with The Michael J. Fox Foundation at the end of September. Three contracts concluded within around a month total approximately 7.5 MEUR, which clearly exceeds the entire revenue of the previous fiscal year. In our view, the news demonstrates that Nightingale's strong position as an analysis partner for UK Biobank is now extending into proteomics as well, and that the same brain health research initiative is being expanded with backing from multiple funders.

In addition, the company recently signed an agreement with The Private GP Group, under which Nightingale's test will become part of the medical center's annual health check-ups in Surrey and South London. Support is also provided by the pilot starting with the Wellbeing Services County of North Karelia. As individual contracts, we estimate these to be small, but together with several contracts announced during the summer and fall, they will drive growth.

Estimates increase for the current fiscal year

We estimate that the revenue from the new proteomics contracts will be recognized mainly during the current fiscal year (2026/27). However, the exact timing of revenue recognition for the contracts is uncertain, and some of the contracts may also be recognized in the next fiscal year. We raise our revenue estimate for the current fiscal year by 15% to 13.8 MEUR, which clearly exceeds the company's guidance of at least 10.0 MEUR. Our revenue estimates for the coming years increase by 7%, reflecting our view of the company's well-developing sales. We assume that the margin of the analyses performed using the partner's technology will be lower than Nightingale's own NMR business, which is why our EBIT estimate for the current fiscal year improves less than revenue (+8%, -13.0 MEUR). Cash consumption will slow down slightly, but an earnings turnaround still requires a clearly larger and recurring revenue level than at present, roughly at an annual rate of 25 MEUR.

Risk/reward remains attractive

We raise our target price following estimate revisions and a lower required return. We feel that three consecutive contracts using the same technology show that this is a recurring business opportunity rather than a one-off deal, which is why we are also moderately raising our longer-term growth assumptions. Our DCF model indicates a share value of EUR 1.6, and based on the scenarios, the fair value falls within a wide range of EUR 0.6-4.6. The current fiscal year EV/S ratio is around 4x, which is a moderate level relative to the company's growth potential. Investors must believe in the company's global commercial breakthrough, take a long-term view of the stock, and accept the risk of capital loss. The financial risk is elevated due to cash burn, which is why achieving rapid growth is an absolute prerequisite for a good share return. Overall, we believe the risk/reward warrants a positive recommendation.