Translation: Original published in Finnish on 6/4/2026 at 8:00 am EEST.

Nightingale has announced three new projects or partnerships so far this year. In our assessment, the new initiatives are pilot-type projects, and their potential commercial value will only become apparent in the medium term. No significant new information regarding new major projects or the progress of ongoing commercializations has been received during the beginning of the year. Therefore, we are revising our forecasts for the coming years downward, as well as our target price to EUR 1.4 (was EUR 1.7). Since the financial statement report, the share price has fallen very sharply, which has improved the risk/reward ratio. We thus raise our recommendation to Buy (was Accumulate).

Year started with laboratory permit in the US and initiation of new projects

In addition to the financial statements, highlights from Nightingale’s news in the first half of the year have included a new research project with South Savo Wellbeing Services County, a memorandum of understanding with Formula 100 Health to integrate Nightingale’s technology into its longevity programs in Switzerland and South Africa, and the granting of a laboratory permit in New York. Each of these developments contributes to the company's growth prospects in the medium term. In our view, the most commercially promising news is the laboratory permit in New York, which will allow the company to offer blood tests to healthcare customers in the US in the future.

Growth still primarily driven by research projects

Nightingale's short-term revenue relies on research customers, where it has succeeded in securing large research projects (Aalborg University 2.4 MEUR, Moli-Sani 0.7 MEUR). According to the company's comments, the sales pipeline for clinical projects has become more balanced relative to the sales pipeline for research projects. The most advanced healthcare client relationship thus far is the cooperation with Terveystalo. Other healthcare partnerships are still in the piloting or very early commercial stage. However, management comments suggest that the sales pipeline is strong. Based on current information, the commercial ramp-up of customer accounts will take at least a few years, which keeps our growth expectations moderate for the coming years.

We revise our estimates downwards

Large research projects with Moli Sani and Aalborg University will generate revenue during H2’26 so we reiterate our full-year 2026 estimate, which is also in line with the company's targeted growth of over 50%. Our revenue estimates for the coming years decrease by 4-7% due to the slow progress in the healthcare segment. The adjustments to the earnings lines range from 4% to 9%. We believe that with current information, our estimates rely on a realistic but still very high-risk scenario of the company's business growth continuing for a long time. This requires new healthcare partnerships and existing customer accounts to turn to clear growth.

The share price decline has improved the risk/reward ratio

Based on our DCF model, the share value is EUR 1.4. Nightingale’s fundamental-based valuation is challenging, as possible scenarios vary between destruction and multiplication of invested capital. With current data, our fair value estimate range for the share is wide, EUR 0.5-5.3. Investors must believe in the company's global commercial breakthrough, take a long-term view of the stock, and accept the risk of capital loss. We believe that the limited visibility into growth warrants pricing in the lower half of the range. After a sharp share price decline, we see the risk/reward as attractive.