Translation: Original published in Finnish on 6/12/2026 at 8:00 am EEST.

Nightingale issued a profit warning on Monday evening, stating that the company will fall short of its revenue growth target of over 50% for the current fiscal year due to the postponement of a significant project. Revenue from the major project will carry over to the next fiscal year for an estimated 2 MEUR. In the same context, the company announced that its revenue outlook for 2027 would exceed 10 MEUR, which was new information largely in line with our estimates. We are shifting revenue from the current fiscal year to the next in our estimates and making moderate upward revisions based on the company's provided outlook. Overall, our view of the company remains unchanged. We reiterate our Buy recommendation and EUR 1.4 target price.

Project delay shifts revenue to the next financial year

Nightingale now expects current fiscal year revenue to grow by around 20% (+/- 5%) year-on-year, while the previous target was over 50% growth. The reason for missing the target is the delay of a 2.4 MEUR project (Aalborg University research project) announced in September 2025. According to the company, the project will be fully implemented, but approximately 2.0 MEUR of the associated revenue will not be recorded until the next fiscal year. Without the delay, the company estimates that the current fiscal year's growth would have been around 65%, which is well in line with our previous estimate (+68.5%). This reinforces our view that Nightingale's core business has progressed in line with our expectations despite the delay of a single project.

Big picture remains unchanged: growth driven by research projects

Nightingale's short-term revenue continues to rely on research customers, and healthcare partnerships, with the exception of the most advanced Terveystalo collaboration, are only in the piloting or early commercial phase. According to the company, sales efforts have remained strong in both businesses. The preliminary outlook for the next fiscal year (revenue over 10 MEUR), provided in connection with the profit warning, is mainly in line with our estimates, when the transferred revenue of around 2.0 MEUR is taken into account. The company will publish more detailed targets for the 2026–2027 financial year with its earnings report in September 2026. For the company's value creation, the long-term scaling of high-volume healthcare partnerships is essential, and the timing of a single project does not significantly impact this.

We transfer revenue from one fiscal year to the next

In our estimates, we are transferring around 2.0 MEUR in revenue from the current fiscal year to the next. In addition to this revision, we are making moderate upward revisions (+3–4%) to our revenue estimates for fiscal years 2027 and 2028, based on the company's provided outlook. This news has no impact on our longer-term forecasts or our view of the company’s strategic direction. Our forecasts are still grounded in a realistic but very high-risk scenario, based on current information, of sustained long-term business growth, which requires new healthcare partnerships and a shift toward clear growth in existing customer relationships.

Risk/reward remains attractive

Based on our DCF model, the share value is still EUR 1.4. It is difficult to determine Nightingale’s value on a fundamental basis because potential scenarios range from capital destruction to multiplication, and we estimate the stock’s fair value to fall within the broad range of EUR 0.5–5.0. Investors must believe in the company's global commercial breakthrough, take a long-term view of the stock, and accept the risk of capital loss. Since the profit warning was primarily a matter of timing and did not alter the overall picture, we still view the risk-reward ratio as attractive following the sharp decline in the share price.