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NORDEN (Investment Case): Tanker strength and solid execution lift guidance for the fourth time

DNORDResearch09.10.2026 klo 16.27

Rasmus Køjborg, Jacob Frehr

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Summary

NORDEN has upgraded its full-year 2026 net profit guidance to USD 180–230 million, with the midpoint increased by USD 40 million to USD 205 million, driven by operational performance rather than vessel sales.
The company attributes the guidance upgrade to stronger market rates, particularly in tankers, and effective regional positioning and execution in both Dry cargo and Tankers.
At the new guidance midpoint, NORDEN trades at 8.0x P/E 2026E, compared to 7.3x for peer medians, and the share trades at approximately 0.85x P/NAV based on a self-reported Net Asset Value of DKK 466 per share at Q2.
NORDEN maintains a policy to distribute at least 50% of annual net profit through dividends and share buybacks, including gains from vessel sales.

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Following the fourth guidance upgrade of 2026, announced on 6 October ahead of the Q3 report, we have updated our investment case. The dry cargo and tanker shipping company raised its full-year 2026 net profit guidance to USD 180–230 million (previously USD 140–190 million), lifting the midpoint by USD 40 million to USD 205 million. Expected vessel sale gains from already-signed transactions were unchanged at USD 79 million, making the entire upgrade operational rather than driven by vessel sales.

Management attributes the upgrade to firmer market rates, particularly in tankers, as well as successful regional positioning and solid execution across both Dry cargo and Tankers. Remaining earnings for the year are expected to be back-end-loaded, with a large share of the higher profits realized late in the year. Excluding vessel sale gains, the guidance midpoint now implies underlying earnings of USD 126 million, up from USD 45 million in the initial February guidance. Since the April upgrade, which was driven by vessel sale gains, every subsequent upgrade has come from operations.

At the new guidance midpoint, NORDEN trades at 8.0x P/E 2026E, compared with 7.3x for both the dry cargo and product tanker peer medians. Based on the self-reported Net Asset Value of DKK 466 per share at Q2, the share trades at ~0.85x P/NAV. NORDEN maintains its policy to distribute at least 50% of annual net profit, including vessel sale gains, through dividends and share buybacks.

NORDEN will publish its Q3 2026 interim report on 29 October 2026. Until then, learn more by watching NORDEN’s Q2 2026 results presentation, where management discusses the first-half performance, guidance and strategic developments.

Link: NORDEN Q2 2026 event

Disclaimer: HC Andersen Capital receives payment from NORDEN for a Digital IR / corporate visibility subscription agreement. Rasmus Køjborg and Jacob Frehr, 09.10.2026, 15:25.

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NORDEN is an internationally operating shipping company with 12 global offices, headquartered in Copenhagen, Denmark, and listed on Nasdaq OMX Copenhagen. The company is present in the dry cargo and product tanker markets with a combination of operator and asset trading activities. NORDEN’s trading-oriented business model is based on the two business units ‘Assets & Logistics’ and ‘Freight Services & Trading’ – dividing the business into asset trading and operator activities. The company’s business activities are based on an asset-light trading strategy, only owning a small percentage (~5%) of its total operated vessel fleet consisting of close to 500 vessels. The agility of the business model enables NORDEN to continuously adjust short-term market exposure towards dry cargo and product tanker market developments while capitalizing on asset trading opportunities. In-house data and advanced analytics, risk management, and market research provide a data-driven approach to shipping, making proactive use of volatile markets.