Translation: Original published in Finnish on 5/6/2026 at 9:30 pm EEST.

Relais publishes its Q1 result next Wednesday (May 13) at about 9:00 am EEST. In connection with this report, we have incorporated the company's reporting change and a small acquisition into our estimates, but the changes to our estimates were moderate overall. The share valuation has drifted to a low level, which is why we are raising our recommendation to Buy (previously Accumulate) and reiterating our target price of EUR 18.0.

Weather conditions were favorable in Q1

We estimate that Relais' Q1 revenue has grown by 33% to 110 MEUR, reflecting in particular the acquisitions made. We believe that market demand remained rather sluggish given the prevailing economic situation in the main markets, though demand for certain product categories likely benefited from temporarily harsh winter conditions. We estimate that Commercial Vehicle Services has grown by a strong 64% year-on-year, although we expect its revenue to have developed steadily organically. We also estimate Technical Wholesale to have grown at a good rate of 11%. This is based on inorganic growth and 4% organic growth, as we estimate that harsher winter conditions than in the comparison period strengthened demand. Our growth estimate for the Products and Solutions business area is also high at 63%, largely due to acquisitions. We would like to point out that there is some uncertainty surrounding the segment-specific forecasts due to the new reporting structure, for example with regard to the allocation of acquisitions.

Earnings growth driven by the top line

We forecast that Relais achieved an adjusted EBITA of 11.8 MEUR in Q1, which represents significant earnings growth relative to the comparison period. According to our estimates, revenue growth is driving earnings growth, as we estimate that the group-level margin has slightly weakened. This is due to the increased relative share of Commercial Vehicle Services, which has a lower margin. However, this development is somewhat offset by the margin improvement we estimate for Technical Wholesale, driven by volume growth. Based on normalized net financing costs from the comparison period and hybrid bond interest expenses, we forecast Q1 earnings per share to decline to EUR 0.34.

Relais has no earnings guidance

As usual, Relais has not provided numerical earnings guidance for this year. In connection with the earnings report, we will focus on any updated financial targets that may be published before the Capital Markets Day, which will be held in two weeks, as well as the usual market commentary. We believe these targets will clarify the company's medium-term growth objectives, especially regarding the ambition to improve group efficiency and the capital return targets.

Valuation is moderate

In connection with this report, we have refined our estimates, taking into account the change in reporting method and a recent small acquisition. Our operational earnings estimates for 2026-2027 have increased by 2-3%. With our updated estimates, the adjusted P/E ratios for 2026 and 2027 are 11-10x and the EV/EBITA multiples are 10x. We consider these valuation multiples attractive in absolute terms, and Relais is also valued at a clear (~15%) discount relative to its sector peers. Compared to serial consolidators, the valuation gap has widened to 50%, and our DCF model, which is also at our target price level, indicates an attractive valuation for the share. Against this backdrop and reflecting Relais' moderate risk profile, we consider the stock's current risk/reward ratio to be very attractive.