Translation: Original published in Finnish on 08/10/2026 at 09:00 pm EEST

Source: Inderes & Modular Finance (consensus, 4 estimates)

Relais will publish its Q2 result on Thursday at about 9:00 am EEST. We estimate the company's revenue and earnings growth to have remained strong, reflecting the completed acquisitions. We have made revisions to our estimates, reflecting the market situation, operational development, and acquisitions. In light of this, we decrease our target price to EUR 17.0 (was EUR 18.0). In the short term, certain operational changes slightly increase forecast risks. Reflecting this, we lower our recommendation to Accumulate (was Buy) despite the share's inexpensive valuation.

Inorganic growth visible in Q2 figures

We have revised our short-term estimates for Q2 slightly downwards, which mainly reflects the estimate changes made to Commercial Vehicle Services. The estimate changes were driven by revisions to the timing of acquisitions and the relocation of one of Raskone's branches, which we estimate has caused a slight discontinuity in sales. In addition, we estimate that there has been no replenishment of retailer inventories on the wholesale side this spring, despite the rather harsh winter strengthening Relais' demand in Q1 and, in our view, somewhat reducing inventory levels at the end of the value chain. Thus, we also lowered our Technical Wholesale estimates.

We estimate Relais' Q2 revenue to have increased by 25% to 104 MEUR (was 107 MEUR). In our estimates, we expect inorganic growth to have been almost 28% from the comparison period, reflecting numerous acquisitions, while organically, we expect revenue to have decreased slightly, reflecting the aforementioned factors. Our Q2 adjusted EBITA estimate decreased to 9.2 MEUR (was 10.4 MEUR). Earnings growth is driven by inorganic growth, while we expect the margin level to have weakened slightly from the comparison period due to the higher relative share of Commercial Vehicles.

Economic news flow supports our estimates

As is customary, Relais does not provide numerical earnings guidance. On the earnings day, our attention will be drawn to market commentary and the progress of measures taken to improve efficiency, which is one of management's focus areas. In our view, the recent positive news flow regarding economic development is mildly positive from Relais' perspective. This supports our expectations for the company's organic growth in the rest of the year and next year.

Estimate revisions in both directions

In addition to short-term organic downward revisions, we have incorporated the most recent acquisition into our estimates. Reflecting our organic downward revisions and inorganic growth, our EBITA estimate for the current year decreased by 2%, while the corresponding estimates for 2027-2028 increased by 4%. Thus, our expectation of Relais' rapidly continuing earnings growth remains unchanged, as we expect its EBITA to grow by 22% this year and 7% next year. Growth largely consists of acquisitions already made.

Valuation is attractive

Relais’ P/E ratios for 2026-2027 based on our estimates, are 10-11x and corresponding EV/EBITA ratios are 11x and 9x. In our view, these absolute valuation multiples are moderate and have a clear upside. This overall valuation picture is also supported by the relative valuation, as the company trades at a clear discount to both of our peer groups. Our cash flow model is also clearly above the current share price. In the short term, the aforementioned operational revisions create a slight forecast risk and raise our required rate of return, but the low valuation of the share and good value creation outlook make the risk/reward ratio attractive.