contentSlug

type

ContentSlug_ContentQuery

slug

ContentPageContentQuery

content

trendingContent

query ContentSlug_ContentQuery(
  $contentSlug: String!
  $type: [ContentType!]
) {
  ...ContentPageContentQuery_13QmVO
}

fragment CompanyDetails_Content on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  companies {
    name
    description
    pageUrl
    id
  }
}

fragment ContentBasicInfo on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  id
  type
  title
  lang
  companies {
    viewerIsFollowing
    id
    name
    pageUrl
  }
  tags {
    viewerIsFollowing
    id
    name
    pageUrl
  }
  ...PublishingDetails
  ...Reactions
}

fragment ContentMetadata on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  type
  title
  lang
  pageUrl
  alternatePageUrls: translations {
    __typename
    pageUrl
    lang
  }
  imgUrl
  description
  ... on Video {
    liveTime
    videoUrl
  }
  ... on Webcast {
    liveTime
    videoUrl
  }
}

fragment ContentPageContentQuery_13QmVO on Query {
  content(slug: $contentSlug, type: $type) {
    __typename
    id
    type
    title
    isPremium
    lang
    htmlBody
    summary
    companies {
      forum {
        latestPosts {
          ...ForumPosts
        }
      }
      name
      id
      viewerIsFollowing
      pageUrl
      defaultInstrument {
        isin
        id
        marketOpen
        marketClose
        marketplace {
          region
        }
        returns {
          total
        }
      }
    }
    tags {
      viewerIsFollowing
      id
      name
      pageUrl
    }
    createdAt
    ... on Video {
      liveTime
    }
    ... on Webcast {
      liveTime
    }
    slug
    ... on CompanyReport {
      reportUrl
    }
    ... on ThirdPartyCompanyReport {
      reportUrl
    }
    ... on StockExchangeRelease {
      reportUrl
    }
    ...ContentBasicInfo
    ...ContentMetadata
    ...PriceAndRecommendation_Content
    ...CompanyDetails_Content
    ...ReportLink_Content
    ...KeyFigures_Content
  }
  ...TrendingContent_1jQ2Cn
}

fragment ForumPosts on ForumPost {
  text
  likesCount
  url
  author
  postedAt
  authorImgUrl
}

fragment KeyFigures_Content on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  companies {
    defaultInstrument {
      estimateData {
        modelType
        reportingCurrency
      }
      snapshot {
        transaction {
          date
          actualized {
            year
            quarter
            revenue
            revenueGrowth
            ebitAdjusted
            ebitReported
            ebitda
            enterpriseValue
            epsAdjusted
            dividend
            dividendYield
            sharePrice
            nav
            navPerShare
            opexOfNav
            quarterlySharePrice
          }
          estimates {
            year
            quarter
            revenue
            revenueGrowth
            ebitAdjusted
            ebitReported
            ebitda
            enterpriseValue
            epsAdjusted
            dividend
            dividendYield
            sharePrice
            nav
            navPerShare
            opexOfNav
            quarterlySharePrice
          }
        }
      }
      id
    }
    id
  }
}

fragment PriceAndRecommendation_Content on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  createdAt
  companies {
    name
    pageUrl
    defaultInstrument {
      priceData {
        tradeCurrency
      }
      snapshot {
        priceData {
          date
          lastPrice
          tradeCurrency
        }
        transaction {
          date
          recommendation
          targetPrice
        }
        prevTransaction {
          recommendation
        }
      }
      id
    }
    id
  }
}

fragment PublishingDetails on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  createdAt
  publishers {
    name
    imgUrl
  }
  authors {
    __typename
    id
    name
    slug
    imgUrl
    jobTitle
  }
  ... on Video {
    liveTime
  }
  ... on Webcast {
    liveTime
  }
}

fragment Reactions on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  id
  reactionGroups {
    reactionType
    reactionsCount
    viewerReacted
  }
}

fragment ReportLink_Content on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  type
  isPremium
  ... on CompanyReport {
    reportUrl
  }
  ... on ThirdPartyCompanyReport {
    reportUrl
  }
  ... on StockExchangeRelease {
    reportUrl
  }
}

fragment TrendingContent_1jQ2Cn on Query {
  trendingContent(type: ARTICLE) {
    __typename
    id
    title
    lang
    pageUrl
    createdAt
    type
    imgUrl
    companies {
      squareLogoUrl
      name
      id
    }
    authors {
      __typename
      imgUrl
      id
    }
    publishers {
      imgUrl
    }
  }
}


remedy-potential-unchanged-despite-short-term-bumps-road

__typename

title

isPremium

lang

htmlBody

summary

companies

createdAt

publishers

authors

reactionGroups

pageUrl

translations

imgUrl

description

Analyst

Atte Riikola

Remedy Entertainment is a game developer. Its operations are primarily focused on the development of action games, with a particular focus on 3D technology. Examples of games that the company has developed include several different versions of Alan Wake, Max Payne, and Control. Remedy also develops its own game engine and tooling technology that powers many of its games. The company was founded in 1995 and is headquartered in Espoo, Finland.

To add to that, according to reliable rumors, Sony’s State of Play event is happening next week. If the game is intended for a Q2 release, the SoP would be the right place to announce it. The odds will get slim if the game isn’t featured at the event.

I don’t necessarily disagree with the significance of GTA for the gaming industry. However, I completely disagree with the idea that the marketing campaign alone would overshadow everything and that no one would bother buying games for six months during the GTA hype. Rockstar’s marketing approach hasn’t previously deviated significantly from industry standards. I agree that Wolverine is a very tough competitor. It’s not quite a Spider-Man level IP, though (cf. AW2 vs Spider-Man 2). It would be desirable to have a reasonable gap between releases. Personally, I think even three weeks is fine. It will be a tough battle in the autumn regardless, with various competitors. There would be more room in the spring and in June. I just don’t believe the game will be ready in time. I hope I’m wrong. I don’t really believe that Remedy’s players are the type of people who buy only one game a year. You can sell GTA to those “one-game-a-year” buyers, but not Remedy’s games.

You are, of course, entitled to underestimate the significance of GTA VI. In my opinion, it’s naive to think that the GTA VI marketing campaign would in any way follow the scope and impact of marketing for a typical well-known IP’s AAA game. If it were any other game, then sure. However, analysts who evaluate this for a living expect this ONE GAME to be the factor that returns the entire gaming market to growth. Even conservatively, they are expecting several billions in revenue from the game for Q4 from consoles alone, meaning tens of millions of copies sold. The first GTA VI trailer has been viewed 150M times. Resonant’s first trailer is about one percent of that. If GTA marketing begins in the summer, it means a very dense and intense campaign considering the scale and expected sales of the game.  Really?  There is nothing there but the worst possible comparison for Remedy: Marvel’s Wolverine, featuring the Marvel IP and Insomniac’s infallible gameplay, being released in the same melee-action genre. Sony’s Q3 (calendar year Q4) this week still had the same info: Wolverine is coming in fiscal '26 (i.e., Q2’26–Q1’27), so presumably the autumn release window remains unchanged. As I already wrote, the average player buys a maximum of 1–2 games a year. For the majority, one of them will be GTA VI, while for melee-action fans, Wolverine is available. To put it bluntly, an 80 OpenCritic performance from Wolverine is enough; then it won’t matter even if Resonant gets >95 OpenCritic. Unless Wolverine flops or is delayed, it will significantly eat into Resonant’s autumn sales. We already saw this with AW2, which was released within a couple of weeks of AC: Mirage. AW2 had an 89% OpenCritic and AC: Mirage had 76%. Despite this, AC: Mirage sold significantly better digitally on PS5. And Assassin’s Creed isn’t anywhere near the Insomniac/Marvel level in terms of IP value. Let alone GTA.  You’d have to be wearing some serious “Remedy glasses” if you’re ready (again) to underestimate the importance of the release window and competition after Alan Wake 2. And I say this as an investor who still has a significant overweight in Remedy. That being said, I don’t believe that everything I’ve written isn’t fully known to Remedy. It may even be that through the Rockstar and Sony collaboration, they have a better view of this year’s release windows in the gaming industry than anyone else. It’s worth noting that while Marvel/Insomniac is an order of magnitude more significant than Remedy, it’s also in Sony’s interest that Resonant and Wolverine don’t compete too closely with each other. I was also previously of the opinion that a Q3 release would be more likely than Atte’s Q2 forecast. However, based on what has been written and discussed here over the past week and what new market information has come from the likes of Sony and T2, I have moved to the same line as Atte regarding Resonant’s release window. I don’t doubt that Remedy knows how to make Resonant a good game, but commercial success requires much more than just a good game, as we have learned the hard way with Remedy. Resonant simply must come out in Q2, which is the only window that would guarantee at least a couple of months of relatively clear runway from other major competition.

No one is denying that GTA 6 is a major release, but let’s be reasonable. Its marketing machine certainly doesn’t hog all the space from everything else for months on end. No media outlet or audience is going to analyze a few-minute trailer released in, say, June, for months on end. Maybe a month before launch, previews will be released, providing a bit more to talk about. Then more gameplay will be released, and the launch follows shortly after. RDR and Alan Wake were released within four days of each other. I don’t think you can seriously claim that a release in August, for example, three months before GTA 6, would be just as bad. I think August and September are fundamentally fine as well. Of course, the competitive landscape there is currently largely a mystery.

I completely agree about the synergy benefit regarding brand awareness etc. that the long tail produced by MPR provides for Resonant. However, the release +/- 3 months window is the timeframe that both generates the project’s cash flows and determines its long tail potential. The more a game sells during the release window, the better it can defend its average price with more moderate discounts in the long run. In this window, one must avoid all cannibalization and competition as much as possible. Outside this window, the significance is considerably smaller, or with a successful MPR release, even positive. For the sake of clarity, let it be stated that I personally believe Remedy will succeed in reaching a larger audience. With Alan Wake 2, however, I completely underestimated the significance of a crowded release window. I should have listened to the forum bears back then. I don’t want to repeat the same mistake, and I am closely monitoring the competitive situation of the release window.

Slightly related to this, I see the release of the Max Payne Remake having great potential for the “long tail” sales of Resonant. I suppose the laws of brand recognition apply, and in the purchasing behavior of more casual gamers—the Gary Gamestops and Wally Walmarts—the large Rockstar logo on the cover of a game on the shelf influences the willingness to buy more than the Remedy logo. If someone hasn’t done their research, the consumer doesn’t see the difference between a publisher and a developer. To many, Max Payne is a game developed by Rockstar. And so be it. The difference between Rockstar and Remedy as brands is—to put it drastically—like Coca-Cola vs. Laitila Beverage Factory (Laitilan virvoitusjuomatehdas). But if the MP remake manages to be a high-quality game and reaches an audience, then this collaboration could be a significant step in expanding Remedy’s brand awareness outside the so-called core audience. And now that they are managing to release games more frequently than before, the brand can be maintained in people’s minds. Since the games are seemingly being released quite close to each other, this could, at best, result in high average price additional sales for Resonant as a synergy benefit. But as you wrote, people’s time is limited and the market is saturated, so cannibalization should not be underestimated. The question perhaps is the ratio of synergy benefits vs. cannibalization.

Too black and white. Resonant must reach a significantly larger audience than just “Remedy fans,” and this is what the analyst expects as well. So far, there aren’t enough of these “Remedy fans” to sustain the company financially in any way. Hopefully, one day there will be. Therefore, cannibalization will inevitably occur in terms of both attention and game sales if there is significant overlap in the release and marketing windows. But as I wrote and as you yourself understand: Rockstar calls the shots and Remedy has to fall in line if the game release windows are close to each other. Only a very, very small portion of the PC/console market buys several AAA games a year. Most play their “forever games” and buy a maximum of 1-2 other games, one of which will be GTA VI for the majority. If I recall correctly, well under 10% of PC/Console players buy >2 new AAA games a year. I would not underestimate cannibalization or difficult release windows. Despite its platform constraints, Alan Wake 2 also clearly suffered from stiff competition in its own release window.  Exactly.  90% of PC and console gamers have played a remaster or remake in the last 12 months, a new report has found.   MTM’s research found that 85% of those who played a remaster or remake in the last year did so despite not playing the original version of the game.  Source: 90% of gamers have played a remake or remaster, finds new report | GamesIndustry.biz

Remedy Entertainment

The key takeaway from Remedy's Q2 report was that the extra time taken for Vanguard was not due to problems with the project, but a conscious decision by Remedy to try to maximize the game's long-term potential for success.

<p>The key takeaway from Remedy's Q2 report was that the extra time taken for Vanguard was not due to problems with the project, but a conscious decision by Remedy to try to maximize the game's long-term potential for success. At the same time, the company's recruitment and investments in external game development have progressed faster than expected, which is reflected in our lower earnings forecasts for the next few years. Despite the short-term bumps, we still believe that Remedy's stock will at some point begin to more strongly anticipate the earnings potential of current projects, against which the valuation of the stock is moderate</p> 

	2021	22e	23e
Revenue	44.7	43.7	46.2
growth-%	8.9 %	-2.4 %	5.8 %
EBIT (adj.)	11.4	-1.4	-2.5
EBIT-% (adj.)	25.5 %	-3.3 %	-5.5 %
EPS (adj.)	0.67	-0.15	-0.16
Dividend	0.17	0.17	0.17
Dividend %	0.4 %	1.2 %	1.2 %
P/E (adj.)	59.0	neg.	neg.
EV/EBITDA	33.0	162.8	3,281.7

Remedy: Potential unchanged despite short-term bumps on the road

Login required

Key Estimate Figures15.08.2022

Forum discussions