Translation: Original published in Finnish on 8/12/2026 at 7:00 am EEST.

We reiterate our Buy recommendation for Remedy and raise our target price to EUR 21 (from EUR 19.0). Remedy's Q2 figures were better than we expected, but this was a minor point given the impending release of Control Resonant. Based on the data points provided by Remedy, we believe the game is on its way to commercial success, and the hit game option is still present. In addition, the newest game project in the development pipeline is progressing rapidly, and we have brought forward our assumption for its release to Q4'28 (was 2029). We believe Remedy's share valuation is attractive when considering both the earnings growth from game releases in the coming years and the company's long-term potential. 

Q2 figures better than expected

Remedy's Q2 revenue decreased by 40% to 10.2 MEUR, slightly exceeding our estimate of 9.7 MEUR. EBITDA (-2.4 MEUR) exceeded our forecast (-5.5 MEUR) more clearly, and based on the cost structure, Control Resonant's marketing investments were even smaller than we expected.

Preliminary data for Control Resonant looks promising

The starting points for strong game sales for Control Resonant are good, and the data points provided by Remedy partly confirm this. As of August 11, the game had been added to over 1.5 million wishlists across all platforms. According to Remedy, pre-orders started at a good pace, and data shows the game performing well compared to peer games in the same release window. During the promotional period following the opening of pre-orders, the game ranked among the top three most pre-ordered games on PlayStation in the United States, Germany, and Brazil. According to the company, the initial reception in China has also been positive, and the second-highest number of pre-orders on Steam has come from Chinese-speaking markets. Based on the Q2 report, we slightly revised our sales estimates for Control Resonant upwards and now expect 1.9 million copies to be sold this year at a slightly lower average price (EUR 55, was EUR 60).

Third project is progressing faster than we expected

Remedy's unnamed new project moved to the proof-of-concept stage in Q3'25, and now, three quarters later, the game has moved to the production readiness stage. Based on this, the game could be completed as early as late 2028. We believe this project will likely be Alan Wake 3, for which a late-year release window (Halloween) would be optimal. We updated our assumption for the release of this project to late 2028 (previously 2029), which naturally significantly raised our 2028 earnings forecasts.

We believe Control Resonant will give Remedy's stock an additional boost

We believe in Remedy’s ability to create multiple high-quality and successful games in the long term, and considering the growth and profitability potential this offers, the company's current valuation is attractive. The long-term potential is indicated by the value of the baseline scenario of the DCF model (EUR 24.4). For Remedy's share value creation, it is essential for the company to succeed with the release of Control Resonant. The cash flows from a successful release essentially enable the company to finance and self-publish its next projects. It would also further strengthen the value of the Control game brand. Remedy's valuation multiples will also moderate significantly in the coming years (2026e-2028e EV/S 1.7x-1.5x and EV/EBITDA 8x-5x), though they will continue to fluctuate with the timing of game releases. With Control Resonant, Remedy's news flow will continue on an upward trend towards the end of the year, and the release of Max Payne Remake is also approaching. In light of current information, we believe Control Resonant is at least on track to be a reasonable commercial success, and a hit game option is still possible. A complete failure of the release at this stage would be very surprising. Thus, we see the risk/reward ratio as attractive and continue with a strong positive view on the stock.