Remedy Q4'25: High stakes in play this year

Translation: Original published in Finnish on 2/11/2026 at 7:00 am EET.

Remedy's investment story is entering a pivotal year, as the company is about to release what is arguably the most important game in its history in terms of commercial success and, in our view, also its most promising game. We believe Control Resonant will sell well, and the upcoming release will also contribute to the stock's valuation, which has recently come under pressure due to fears about AI that, in our opinion, have somewhat unjustifiably affected gaming stocks as well. No game, no fame. We reiterate our EUR 19.0 target price and raise our recommendation to Buy (previously Accumulate). 

Q4 figures landed slightly above our expectations

Remedy’s Q4 revenue grew by 46% to 17.0 MEUR, which exceeded our 16.2 MEUR estimate. The increase in revenue was also reflected in the earnings figures, and EBITDA (3.9 MEUR) was a bit better than our estimate (3.2 MEUR). Development fees for the quarter (8.7 MEUR) were slightly lower than our expectations, while own game sales and royalties (8.4 MEUR) came as a positive surprise. This growth was supported by the availability of Alan Wake 2 on PS Plus in October and FBC: Firebreak's B2B payments. Additionally, Remedy highlighted the sales of the original Control game as a factor in the growth. The game, which is over six years old, still sold over one million copies overall last year. Naturally, the game's average price has been very low, yet million-level sales can still be considered good performance for an old game. This will also help grow the audience for the upcoming sequel.

Control Resonant will determine this year’s development

As expected, Remedy provided guidance on revenue and EBITDA growth for 2026. The wording of the guidance remains cautious as, according to our calculations, both revenue and EBITDA should grow significantly following the successful launch of Control Resonant. Understandably, the company wants to be cautious at this stage, as uncertainty prior to the game's release is naturally high, even though the initial reception among players seems promising. The game's Steam wishlist ranking (currently 67th) has also developed well. Following the Q4 report, we have not made any significant changes to our forecasts and still expect the game to be released at the end of Q2'26. We also consider it very possible that the release will be in Q3. We forecast Control Resonant to sell roughly 1.8 million copies in 2026 and about 2.2 million copies in 2027. As a result, we estimate Remedy's revenue to exceed 120 MEUR in 2026-2027, with EBITDA reaching ~19-26 MEUR. The starting points for strong game sales are good, as the original Control has sold over 5 million copies, and over 20 million players have played the game across
various platforms.

We expect Control Resonant to boost the share price

We believe in Remedy’s ability to create multiple high-quality and successful games in the long term, and considering the growth and profitability potential this offers, the company's current valuation is attractive. The long-term potential is indicated by the value of the baseline scenario of the DCF model (EUR 22.7). For Remedy's share value creation, it is essential for the company to succeed with the release of Control Resonant. A successful release would essentially enable the company to finance and publish its next projects itself. It would also further strengthen the value of the Control game brand. Remedy's valuation multiples will also moderate in the coming years (2026e-2027e EV/S about 1.5x and EV/EBITDA 10x-7x), though they will continue to fluctuate with the timing of future game releases as well. Overall, Control Resonant will generate positive news for Remedy in 2026, in addition to the approaching release of the Max Payne Remake. We believe that Remedy's stock will be supported by these major upcoming game releases, and in a good scenario, the potential is significant.