Remedy: Release of Control Resonant marks turning point in investment story

Translation: Original published in Finnish on 12/15/2025 at 7:00 am EET.

We raise our target price for Remedy to EUR 19.0 (was 17.0 EUR) but because of the rise in the share price, we revise our recommendation to Accumulate (was Buy). The release of Control Resonant as early as 2026 came as a positive surprise compared to our expectations, and we have updated our assumption for the game's release to the end of Q2'26 (was H1’27). The upcoming Control sequel is a critical release for Remedy's investment case, and we are confident in its success. The initial reception of the game's trailer on various platforms also appears promising. We believe that the upcoming game release will support Remedy's shares over the next year, and we find the valuation otherwise still moderate relative to the company's long-term potential. 

Control Resonant is Control’s anticipated sequel

Remedy unveiled Control Resonant, the highly anticipated sequel to the company's Control game, at The Game Awards event on Thursday. The game's announcement trailer is available to watch here. Control Resonant is an action RPG in which players control Dylan Faden in an open world set in Manhattan. According to Remedy, players can jump into the game even if they haven't played the original Control. The game will be released for PlayStation 5, Xbox series X|S, PC and Mac. Remedy will be the game's publisher, and Annapurna Pictures will co-finance and co-produce it, in line with the companies' previously announced strategic partnership.

Major changes to forecasts for the coming years due to game release timing

We are now waiting for the release of Control Resonant at the end of Q2'26 (was H1’27), which has significantly altered our revenue estimates for the coming years. Additionally, we had previously assumed that Annapurna's share of the game's sales would be outside of Remedy's income statement, but it appears that this share will also flow through Remedy. Thus, our revenue estimates have increased accordingly, but Annapurna's share is reflected as an expense in the income statement as well. Our net assumption regarding Control Resonant's returns for Remedy over the first three years remains essentially unchanged. We now assume that Remedy will receive royalties from the Max Payne project only in 2027 (was Q4’26), even though the game may still be released in 2026. We estimate that Control Resonant will sell approximately 1.8 million copies in 2026 and approximately 2.2 million copies in 2027. Consequently, Remedy's revenue is projected to surpass 120 MEUR in 2026–2027, with EBITDA reaching slightly over 20 MEUR. Conditions for strong game sales are favorable, as the original Control has sold over 5 million copies and has additionally been played by over 20 million players across various platforms.

We believe the stock will benefit from upcoming game releases

We believe in Remedy’s ability to create multiple high-quality and successful games in the long term, and considering the growth and profitability potential this offers, the company's current valuation remains attractive. The long-term potential is indicated by the value of the baseline scenario of the DCF model (EUR 22.1). For Remedy's share value creation, it is essential for the company to succeed with the release of Control Resonant. A successful release would essentially enable the company to finance and publish its next projects itself. It would also further strengthen the value of the Control game brand. Remedy's valuation multiples will also moderate in the coming years (2026e-2027e EV/S 1.7-1.6x and EV/EBITDA 10x), though they will continue to fluctuate with the timing of future game releases as well. Overall, Control Resonant will generate positive news for Remedy in 2026, in addition to the approaching release of the Max Payne Remake. We believe that Remedy's share price will be boosted by these major upcoming game releases, and, at the current valuation, it is worth holding onto the shares to ride the wave of rising investor enthusiasm.