contentSlug

type

ContentSlug_ContentQuery

slug

ContentPageContentQuery

content

trendingContent

query ContentSlug_ContentQuery(
  $contentSlug: String!
  $type: [ContentType!]
) {
  ...ContentPageContentQuery_13QmVO
}

fragment CompanyDetails_Content on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  companies {
    name
    description
    pageUrl
    id
  }
}

fragment ContentBasicInfo on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  id
  type
  title
  lang
  companies {
    viewerIsFollowing
    id
    name
    pageUrl
  }
  tags {
    viewerIsFollowing
    id
    name
    pageUrl
  }
  ...PublishingDetails
  ...Reactions
}

fragment ContentMetadata on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  type
  title
  lang
  pageUrl
  alternatePageUrls: translations {
    __typename
    pageUrl
    lang
  }
  imgUrl
  description
  ... on Video {
    liveTime
    videoUrl
  }
  ... on Webcast {
    liveTime
    videoUrl
  }
}

fragment ContentPageContentQuery_13QmVO on Query {
  content(slug: $contentSlug, type: $type) {
    __typename
    id
    type
    title
    isPremium
    lang
    htmlBody
    summary
    companies {
      forum {
        latestPosts {
          ...ForumPosts
        }
      }
      name
      id
      viewerIsFollowing
      pageUrl
      defaultInstrument {
        isin
        id
        marketOpen
        marketClose
        marketplace {
          region
        }
        returns {
          total
        }
      }
    }
    tags {
      viewerIsFollowing
      id
      name
      pageUrl
    }
    createdAt
    ... on Video {
      liveTime
    }
    ... on Webcast {
      liveTime
    }
    slug
    ... on CompanyReport {
      reportUrl
    }
    ... on ThirdPartyCompanyReport {
      reportUrl
    }
    ... on StockExchangeRelease {
      reportUrl
    }
    ...ContentBasicInfo
    ...ContentMetadata
    ...PriceAndRecommendation_Content
    ...CompanyDetails_Content
    ...ReportLink_Content
    ...KeyFigures_Content
  }
  ...TrendingContent_1jQ2Cn
}

fragment ForumPosts on ForumPost {
  text
  likesCount
  url
  author
  postedAt
  authorImgUrl
}

fragment KeyFigures_Content on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  companies {
    defaultInstrument {
      estimateData {
        modelType
        reportingCurrency
      }
      snapshot {
        transaction {
          date
          actualized {
            year
            quarter
            revenue
            revenueGrowth
            ebitAdjusted
            ebitReported
            ebitda
            enterpriseValue
            epsAdjusted
            dividend
            dividendYield
            sharePrice
          }
          estimates {
            year
            quarter
            revenue
            revenueGrowth
            ebitAdjusted
            ebitReported
            ebitda
            enterpriseValue
            epsAdjusted
            dividend
            dividendYield
            sharePrice
          }
        }
      }
      id
    }
    id
  }
}

fragment PriceAndRecommendation_Content on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  createdAt
  companies {
    name
    pageUrl
    defaultInstrument {
      priceData {
        tradeCurrency
      }
      snapshot {
        priceData {
          date
          lastPrice
          tradeCurrency
        }
        transaction {
          date
          recommendation
          targetPrice
        }
        prevTransaction {
          recommendation
        }
      }
      id
    }
    id
  }
}

fragment PublishingDetails on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  createdAt
  publishers {
    name
    imgUrl
  }
  authors {
    __typename
    id
    name
    slug
    imgUrl
    jobTitle
  }
  ... on Video {
    liveTime
  }
  ... on Webcast {
    liveTime
  }
}

fragment Reactions on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  id
  reactionGroups {
    reactionType
    reactionsCount
    viewerReacted
  }
}

fragment ReportLink_Content on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  type
  isPremium
  ... on CompanyReport {
    reportUrl
  }
  ... on ThirdPartyCompanyReport {
    reportUrl
  }
  ... on StockExchangeRelease {
    reportUrl
  }
}

fragment TrendingContent_1jQ2Cn on Query {
  trendingContent(type: ARTICLE) {
    __typename
    id
    title
    lang
    pageUrl
    createdAt
    type
    imgUrl
    companies {
      squareLogoUrl
      name
      id
    }
    authors {
      __typename
      imgUrl
      id
    }
    publishers {
      imgUrl
    }
  }
}


remedy-vanguard-relaunch-included-estimates

__typename

title

isPremium

lang

htmlBody

summary

companies

createdAt

publishers

authors

reactionGroups

pageUrl

translations

imgUrl

description

Analyst

Atte Riikola

Remedy Entertainment is a game developer. Its operations are primarily focused on the development of action games, with a particular focus on 3D technology. Examples of games that the company has developed include several different versions of Alan Wake, Max Payne, and Control. Remedy also develops its own game engine and tooling technology that powers many of its games. The company was founded in 1995 and is headquartered in Espoo, Finland.

That followers/members tracking was handy, thanks! At this stage, so soon after the announcement, wishlists are significantly higher than the traditional followers x10 formula. Resonant is currently the 99th most wishlisted game on Steam.  Most wishlisted games on SteamDB Below are the wishlists for the 100th-ranked game (V.A Proxy) based on Gamalytic.   Link to V.A Proxy’s statistics On the other hand, the game ranked 98th (Bloody Hell Hotel) has 355k wishlists according to Gamalytic, so the SteamDB wishlist ranking and Gamalytic’s wishlist estimates don’t fully correlate. Gamalytic will likely have Resonant’s statistics within a day or two, so we’ll get some kind of rough estimate. At a minimum, the game should already have several hundred thousand wishlists based on this information. Below are also Resetera’s poll for the best announcements and an updated IGN poll, now with over x10 more responses (n >10k) since my last update. Looks good.  Resetera poll n= 650   IGN poll, n = 12,500 (requires US location selection and some scrolling on the main page) Although Resonant’s release will likely be quite close to GTA VI (19.11.2026), it’s good to remember that GTA will not be released on PC at launch. Resonant therefore has a completely free lane to rampage on PC, which is why monitoring Steam statistics is particularly important. If the game stays on schedule and at least somewhat lives up to the hype generated by its announcement, then next year’s 2026 EBIT/EBITDA and thus the earnings multiples will see a very significant change compared to previous expectations, where 2026 was more or less an interim year.

And with this game too, there will surely be sales (and probably offers) for e.g. Control 1. For me, at least, it made me think, ‘oh, maybe I should play that next since I haven’t played it yet.’ It was the same when AW2 came out, so I had to get AW Remastered, even though I can’t even play the second one on PS4

You can see the follower count directly here: https://steamcommunity.com/games/3669870/members  Now 13681. When estimating the number of wishlists, you can multiply that by, say, 12, and you’ll probably be quite close. (“the vast majority of wishlists for unreleased Steam games in June 2023 are between 7x and 20x the followers, with an average of 12.37x and a median of 12x”, https://newsletter.gamediscover.co/p/why-your-steam-follower-to-wishlist) I have now watched a huge number of reactions to the game awards trailer from different streamers, and practically all of them have been positive. At the same time, Control has also received a nice boost on Steam, albeit driven by a discount. And even Firebreak has multiplied its player count again

It seems quite clear that both characters are in the game and are related to the story. The open question is whether both are playable. It’s possible, but nothing yet, in my opinion, indicates that.

Unsurprisingly, some parts of the Internet are of the opinion that changing the main character is a mistake and the game is now ruined. From an investor’s perspective, it is desirable that these potential buyers, behaving like stubborn toddlers, do not constitute a very large portion of the target audience. I wouldn’t be surprised if this game also featured two main characters, like Alan Wake 2. Naturally, even that is considered blasphemy by some.

Let’s make a separate poll to see if it works this way   Control Resonant track sales by the end of 2026  Under 0.5M 0.5M - 0.99M 1M - 1.49M 1.5M - 1.99M 2M - 2.49M 2.5M - 2.99M 3M - 3.49M 3.5M - 3.99M 4M - 4.49M 4.5M - 4.99M Over 5M      0 äänestäjää

Very much along the same lines. This increasing probability of momentum is further strengthened when examining the trend in the number of Nordnet owners based on statistics.  After the release of Firebreak, the decrease in the number of owners has accelerated right up to this TGA. I don’t know if the owner count hasn’t updated, but according to current statistics, no new owners were added even on Friday. I consider it likely that as we get closer to the release, new owners will start flowing in again. Another thing an investor should probably outline for the 2026 momentum is what the current sentiment’s expectations are for the game’s sales, e.g., for 2026 and for the first 12 months. The release of Control Resonant can now very likely be expected between September and October, before the GTA6 release. This would mean approximately 4-2 months of sales time for 2026. Alan Wake 2 sold 1M units on Epic+console marketplaces in 2 months two years ago. Based on these frameworks, let’s set up a poll again so we can somewhat outline what the forum expects for Control Resonant’s sales based on what has been seen so far.   Control Resonant sales in 2026  Under 0.5M units 0.5 - 0.99M units 1M - 1.49M units 1.5M - 1.99M units 2M - 2.49M units 2.5M - 2.99M units 3M - 3.49M units 3.5M - 3.99M units 4M - 4.49M units 4.5M - 4.99M units Over 5M units      0 äänestäjää      Here is a good graph produced by @Akee showing Remedy’s reported previous game sales based on copy count. Edit. The poll doesn’t seem to be working. I’ll add the poll once I learn how to use this updated system. Edit2 Is the poll creation broken? This is what it looks like on my end

Remedy Entertainment

We have updated our estimates to include the reboot of the Vanguard project under the codename Kestrel. As a result, cash flows from Remedy’s projects will focus slightly more at the end of this decade.

<p>We have updated our estimates to include the reboot of the Vanguard project under the codename Kestrel. As a result, cash flows from Remedy’s projects will focus slightly more at the end of this decade. Overall, Remedy’s share valuation prices good success for future games, which we believe is also justified in light of AW2’s excellent reception. The positive momentum around AW2 is also a clear driver supporting the share in the short term. As a whole, the risk/return ratio is now too thin in the neutral scenario in line with our estimates, although the hit game option associated with each game project can change the situation quickly. </p> 

	2022	23e	24e
Revenue	43.6	31.5	70.1
growth-%	-2.5 %	-27.7 %	122.4 %
EBIT (adj.)	-0.6	-20.6	17.6
EBIT-% (adj.)	-1.3 %	-65.2 %	25.1 %
EPS (adj.)	-0.13	-1.22	1.04
Dividend	0.10	0.10	0.10
Dividend %	0.5 %	0.6 %	0.6 %
P/E (adj.)	neg.	neg.	15.8
EV/EBITDA	126.5	neg.	8.3

Remedy: Vanguard relaunch included in estimates

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Key Estimate Figures15.11.2023

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