Revenio Q1'26: Buy and be patient

Translation: Original published in Finnish on 4/29/2026 at 8:00 am EEST.

We reiterate our Buy recommendation and EUR 20.0 target price for Revenio. The Q1 earnings landed below our expectations due to currency headwinds and larger-than-anticipated non-recurring items. The result is of no practical significance in the current situation, where the Visionix acquisition will determine value development in the coming years. Our previous estimate in this regard remains unchanged. The stock fell 11% yesterday, and the valuation is even more attractive We recommend buying the stock and waiting a few years for a new Revenio to emerge from the integration.

Operationally good quarter

Revenio's revenue grew by 4.8% in Q1, reaching 27.3 MEUR, but FX-adjusted growth was a strong 8.4%, in line with our expectations. Revenue grew well in both the United States and Europe, but performance in the APAC region was weak. In Asia, customers have had to accept a significant "price increase" as local currencies have weakened against the euro (sales in euros, excl. US). We estimate that Revenio once again gained significant market share during the quarter. Adjusted for significant non-recurring items, the EBIT of 5.8 MEUR was below our expectations (forecast 6.3 MEUR), mainly due to foreign exchange effects (revenue shortfall). Most of the company's product costs are in euros (~25% in dollars), so currency movements also affect them. Price increases implemented in the US began to support the gross margin from February onwards, but the product mix remained weak and the gross margin was ~69%. Reported EBIT plummeted to 2.4 MEUR, significantly missing our estimate, as the company recorded 3.1 MEUR in expenses related to the Visionix acquisition during the review period (estimate -2.0 MEUR). Considering these factors, the profitability trend was roughly in line with our expectations, but on the other hand, the costs incurred for the iCare screening solutions' FDA process were lower than we expected for the period. Overall, we believe Q1 was relatively neutral, with the exception of weak operating cash flow (-3.4 MEUR).

Big picture unchanged

We did not make any material changes to our near-term estimates after incorporating Visionix into our forecasts in the previous update. Our 2026 forecasts decreased somewhat, reflecting the Q1 earnings disappointment in the reported result, but operational development (excluding currencies and non-recurring items) was largely as expected. We did not receive significant new information regarding Visionix or the upcoming integration in connection with Q1, but we recommend watching our extensive interview with Revenio’s management (in Finnish). We believe this provides background on Visionix, the company's product portfolio, and the acquisition in general.

Buy and be patient

Revenio's adjusted EV/EBITA is now 12-13x based on 2027 estimates, which include few synergies. If the company were to achieve its own targets in the Visionix acquisition in 2030, the EV/EBITDA would be in the range of 4x. Although there is still time, we believe it is clear that the market does not believe in the targets. There will be a two-year period of uncertainty as the transaction closes in the summer, followed by a rights offering. We estimate that visibility will begin to improve with the prospectus to be published in connection with the offering and at the Capital Markets Day to be held after the offering. While we fully acknowledge the considerable uncertainty associated with our forecasts, we have been moderate in our assumptions and still see significant upside potential in the stock. The market has clearly shown its distrust regarding the acquisition, but we believe this view is short-sighted or simply wrong. We also estimate that the gloomy sentiment will improve as understanding gradually increases. We recommend initiating a buying program for Revenio and then waiting (at most) three years, after which the results of the acquisition will be visible to all.